Tens of thousands from many parts of Greek society protest austerity

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'parently he's just said that he's not going to.

[2952-0-0]

It must be the least applied-for job in the world now. Even Bangladeshi textile workers will have an easier time than this.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

--According to Reuters, Mr Papandreou suggested to cabinet members earlier that he was prepared to let the idea of the referendum go. "I will be glad even if we don't go to a referendum, which was never a purpose in itself. I'm glad that all this discussion has at least brought a lot of people back to their senses," Mr Papandreou said in the text of his speech released to media.--

BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15570986

If AL is around, can this thread be tossed over to IntDis, for possible merger with another thread?

more: "I will talk to (opposition leader Antonis) Samaras so that we examine the next steps on the basis of a wider consensus," the leader added.

[King]

There's a great Greek myth/Ancient Greece joke here, but I just can't put my finger on it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-04/greek-pm-agrees-to-step-down/3626384

He may have said he wasn't going... but that was before his massive tactical error.

[opebo]

But the mere action of firing the CoS and the heads of the three services suggests that Greece is closer to a Latin American banana republic than we'd hope.

Or rather, closer than we'd dared hope.

[Simfan34]

Incidentally, when did Jack Layton come back to life and become Prime Minister of Greece?

You've never noticed?

[Beet]

They are just procrastinating. Baring major advances in political integration, return of the drachma is nearly inevitable. Yes, costly, yes, excruciatingly painful - but the alternatives are worse.

What about the lira, peseta and franc? Are those coming back too?

[© tweed]

this is a stupid question but please answer me anyway.  is there any actual reason why PIGS would have to return to their old currency if they got out of the Euro?  meaning, would they be free to call it the Greek Tweed instead of the Greek Drachma (or was some ratio pegged into stone when they joined the Euro?)

[Beet]

Absolutely not. In fact they dont even have to return to a floating currency - as you hinted, Italy could go to the dinar and peg it at 2 dinars = 1 euro, giving it an instant 50% devaluation.

This whole thing is insane, though. Any idiot can see that this crisis is going to contagion and a larger breakup, but no one seems to be planning for it. Germany should seriously consider leaving the euro now, for example, and be making actual concrete steps and plans for that eventuality.

[© tweed]

perhaps they are behind the most closed of closed doors, but of course keeping it secret to stave off 'market panic'

[GMantis]

Absolutely not. In fact they dont even have to return to a floating currency - as you hinted, Italy could go to the dinar and peg it at 2 dinars = 1 euro, giving it an instant 50% devaluation.

This whole thing is insane, though. Any idiot can see that this crisis is going to contagion and a larger breakup, but no one seems to be planning for it. Germany should seriously consider leaving the euro now, for example, and be making actual concrete steps and plans for that eventuality.

The Euro has been generally beneficial for Germany, so they'll probably won't be in a hurry to abandon it. And of course the effect of Germany leaving the Euro on the other members would probably end up backfiring on them.

[2952-0-0]

If membership in the Eurozone was determined on economics alone, only Germany, Austria, the Benelux, and some Nordic countries would be allowed in.

But that would be such an obvious Greater German Reich it won't be formally accepted.

[GMantis]

If membership in the Eurozone was determined on economics alone, only Germany, Austria, the Benelux, and some Nordic countries would be allowed in.

But that would be such an obvious Greater German Reich it won't be formally accepted.

France?

[Beet]

54% of Germans want out of the euro, according to a recent poll.
The euro has mainly benefited Germany by lowering its exchange rate, but Germany could print D-M whenever it wanted to achieve the same result. And it wouldn't have to bail anyone out either.
With Germany (and the other northern European countries) gone, it is obvious than French-led zone would issue euro-bonds, and a French-led ECB would buy sovereign debt. Plus, the euro would instantly depreciate 40%-50%, restoring the competitiveness of Italy and Spain without a single 'economic shot' fired.

[opebo]

...Germany could print D-M whenever it wanted to achieve the same result. And it wouldn't have to bail anyone out either.

Its the same thing to press the Print button to 'bail someone out' or to just press it to buy dollars (the latter just bails out the US).

[Beet]

Now one former minister is proposing Greece's version of 'shock doctrine'. It may well be necessary if Greece is to remain in the euro:

'They include Lucas D. Papademos, a former vice president of the European Central Bank, and Stefanos Manos, a former economy minister for the New Democracy Party who has long argued that until Greece lays off a large chunk of its inefficient public work force any hope of true reform is hopeless.

Mr. Manos’s latest program is even more controversial. He proposes that as much as €300 billion worth of Greek assets be put into a vast “goody bag,” including plots of land, sites of historical significance and even prized islands, as collateral to secure an immediate €75 billion loan from Europe that would be used to buy discounted Greek bonds and pay off debtors. In return, Greece would agree to sell most of the assets in the goody bag within the next 10 years or so and pay back the loan — with a bit left over, he hopes.

“Call me a taboo killer if you will,” he said. “Fire Greek workers, sell Greek islands — politicians here have to overcome their taboos.” And, he added, they have little time to do so. “Everything has stopped here,” he continued. “People are taking their money out of the country. The bomb is ticking.”'

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/07/business/global/small-businesses-in-greece-are-being-devastated.html?_r=1&hp

Frankly I am surprised the taboos have not been overcome already...

[2952-0-0]

Given the level of public resentment in Greece over these privatizations I don't see why anyone would want to participate in them. They may be bought up on the cheap today, but a future Greek government will be finding all sorts of creative ways to tax the privatized assets, or make the foreign investors offers they can't refuse.

[Beet]

What exactly is the nature of Greek public opinion though? I can barely even analyze trends in American public opinion. Sure, Greeks are angry in general, but there must be nuances that we're missing. Perhaps if Greeks are convinced that the ones sucking their country dry are a minority set of protected special interests with connections to the political class, then they will accept measures like savage privatization and layoffs if it's seen as being part of a fair package that breaks up these protected classes.

[opebo]

But why give away all those assets when you can simply not pay the debt?

[Beet]

They could do both. The 50% haircut by accepting the Troika package, and pay off the rest using the goody bag approach. That would save them the coupon payments and refinancing costs, reducing the deficit to 1% of GDP.

[Joe Republic]

So Jack Layton is out; NJ Sen. Robert Menendez is in.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So Jack Layton is out; NJ Sen. Robert Menendez is in.

That's why I love you Joe.

[Beet]

This should buy some time-

"According to three separate polls, the choice of Mr. Papademos, a former vice president of the European Central Bank, was considered a positive step by three quarters of Greeks. The polls showed that between 72.9% and 79.1% thought his appointment was either a "positive" or "probably positive" step for the country.

One of those polls, in the Sunday edition of To Vima newspaper, also showed that 78% thought the creation of the new coalition government was a positive move, while a second poll in the RealNews newspaper showed that 61.7% thought so."

Not that it'll last. But it vindicates the decision to form a unity government. The last government had an approval rating of some 11%.

In the meantime, since an uncontrolled default or drachma hasn't been returned to, part of the Greek plan remains internal devaluation to get out of its troubles. This means, unfortunately, more suffering. Thus far it seems Stefanos Manos has not been called to serve, although he may behind the scenes. What you will see if internal devaluation starts to become successful is

(1) An end in inflation in Greece and beginning of drop in the price level, and
(2) A closing of the current-account deficit