Margins, Obama vs. Cain, Gingrich, and Romney

[pbrower2a]

PPP and Quinnipiac now consider Rick Santorum relevant after the Iowa caucuses. So far they poll only two states on how R.S. would do against President Obama, but those (Florida by Quinnipiac and North Carolina by PPP) are critical to any Republican success in defeating President Obama if possible. Quinnipiac now ignores Gingrich and didn't mention Paul in a potential matchup against President Obama in Florida. I may drop Gingrich at any time if he himself drops out or becomes irrelevant.

For Santorum, those are only polls from 2012, as Santorum was insignificant before the Iowa caucuses.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Two polls by Quinnipiac. First, New Jersey:

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Nothing is shown for other possible Presidential matchups. Quinnipiac has
extensive results on the Governor and legislative bodies, which are probably more relevant. If Romney doesn't have a chance to win New Jersey against President Obama, then  neither does anyone else. 


...and the definitive swing state:

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BUT -- no Republican defeats him:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1690


under 1% white
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5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/fla-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney-who-leads-i-4-corridor

The body of the article has a chart suggesting how Florida itself splits by cities. It simply does not transfer well to this format through an obvious clip-and-paste.  In essence, President Obama does extremely well in Miami, very well in Orlando, OK in Tampa, not at all well in Jacksonville, and very badly in West Palm. This is a statistical tie, which is more significant than the hue. Like North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia the state bounces around an even split.

...At this stage the President is nearly even in most of the obvious swing states, which is about where he was in the latter part of the summer of 2008 with Mitt Romney standing in for John McCain. In effect President Obama has many possible ways to victory and few for defeat. Against anyone but Mitt Romney the President stands to win somewhere between Clinton in 1996 and Reagan in 1984 with a mean (I would guess) suggesting Eisenhower in 1956.

Another way to look at the Obama-Romney matchup is to see that it now looks much like a replay of the 2000 election with President Obama in the role of Al Gore (both seem to lose New Hampshire) except that President Obama has effectively locked up Colorado and Nevada to adjust to the shift in electoral votes since 2000... but this time President Obama has about a 50-50 chance in a raft of states scattered about the country (New Hampshire itself, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and Arizona) that the Republicans absolutely must win. These states are different enough politically that Mitt Romney cannot tailor an approach that wins them all. Mitt Romney is going to need a mass shift of support from Obama to himself to win. That is still possible, but I can't see how he can do it.  If the President locks down even one of these states on any issue  he wins.  He has not yet won, and there is plenty of time for a mass shift of voter attitudes.

under 1% white
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5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

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...not too bad for a state that the President lost decisively in 2008, has spent little time in, and has no cultural affinities to.

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Something of a surprise. Maybe left-wing "class warfare" really is a losing proposition in Texas! Is Gingrich going nuts?

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A third-party candidate from the Right does NOT swing Texas (I am not showing that). 

...Perry dropped out today, but he won't be of any help to the GOP as a VP candidate.


under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Marist has highly-detailed polling results on New York State as a potential battleground between President Barack Obama  against each of the remaining Republicans:

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Let's put it this way: the President has a better chance of winning Texas than the Republican nominee will have of winning New York.

...University poll, Wisconsin. Only one Presidential matchup:

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No other binary matchups are shown

This question and response suggests that any bias in sampling does not favor the President or Democrats on the whole, in view of how an often-embattled Governor is seen:

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https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/MLSPJanToplines.pdf



under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1695


Q consistently gets results more R-leaning than do other pollsters... so although this poll looks like a decline for President Obama it is an improvement over the most recent Q poll.

PPP may still have binary matchups to release for Minnesota... and will be polling Missouri and Ohio, two other legitimate swing states this weekend. Those will be interesting.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Franklin&Marshall, Pennsylvania:

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Read more: http://citizensvoice.com/news/new-poll-produces-mixed-results-for-obama-1.1262751#ixzz1kb8Gvyju

Results involving Gingrich are deemed obsolete in the source and suppressed.  A binary matchup between the President and Congressman Ron Paul is not shown. For this poll I am blanking Pennsylvania for Gingrich and Paul because the change involving Obama vs. Romney is huge.  It's hard to imagine Ron Paul being down by only 3% in Pennsylvania if Mitt Romney is down by 11%.

The newspaper article suggests what as I see as the norm in Pennsylvania in an election year (as in Michigan): the state looks like an over-ripe fruit about ready to drop into the Republican roster of wins only to slip away as Democrats get their act together.

Speaking of Michigan -- I got polled this week.






under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Minnesota

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012612.pdf

Boring!

under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Michigan -- EPIC/Detroit Free Press

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Two months ago the same pollster had Romney up on President Obama 46-41. Nothing is shown on Obama vs. Paul or Obama vs. Santorum.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120126/NEWS15/120126046/New-poll-Obama-takes-48-40-lead-over-Romney-in-Michigan



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Virginia has voted for the Democratic nominee for President only twice since the 1948 -- the LBJ blowout and the 2008 election. It looks very close between Obama and Romney (virtual tie) but a blowout for the President against Gingrich.   

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http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/poll-shows-kain.php

Paul and Santorum are not mentioned in this poll. It's beginning to look much like the Presidential race around September 1, 2008 -- when the current President had no certainty  of winning the election but had very few ways in which to lose and many in which to win -- at least against Romney. Against others, the President looks set for a blowout win.

PPP will be polling Ohio (clear-but-narrow Obama win in 2008) and Missouri (bare Obama loss in 2008) this weekend.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Wow! Three contradictory polls on Florida!

The old one is roughly the mean between two outliers, and the old one is probably right.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Ohio.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_02012.pdf

Ohio is about R+2 in most Presidential elections. I don't know whether this will stick. In general add about 6% to the approval rating for an incumbent seeking re-election at the start of campaign season  and you get a fair estimate of the results in the next election.  At this point I would predict that President Obama is going to have a win somewhere between that of Clinton in 1996 and Eisenhower in 1956.

It is a bad idea for any Republican to carp about the auto bailout if he wants to win Ohio. That is one sure way to lose Ohio. Rick Santorum may have done less of that than the other three. 

under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

PPP: Obama competitive in Missouri

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Regionally-straddling Missouri is a legitimate swing state. I can't think of any state quite like it politically. The Republican nominee will need to win Missouri to have a chance, but as in 2008, winning Missouri will be far from enough.  If President Obama has a 50-50 chance of winning Missouri, then he projects to win somewhere between 380 and 390 electoral votes. 
 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, WMUR-TV (ABC 9)

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http://www.wmur.com/politics/30373435/detail.html#ixzz1lNccCCXg

My comment: cheap shots at President Obama will not win. At this point I see little chance of any Republican nominee picking off any state that the President won by at least 5% in 2008 in 2012.

Survey USA, Georgia:

Romney 51-43, Gingrich 50-44 over Obama (nothing on Paul or Santorum). It changes little.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=774e93a3-2218-4c03-85da-37eeaa04047e

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[morgieb]

This election is slowly feeling more and more like a paddlin'.

[pbrower2a]

Siena College Research Institute
January 29 - February 1, 2012
807 New York State Registered Voters
MOE +/- 3.4%

...

Barack Obama

64% Favorable
34% Unfavorable

If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

63% Barack Obama
31% Mitt Romney

65% Barack Obama
29% Ron Paul

65% Barack Obama
28% Rick Santorum

68% Barack Obama
26% Newt Gingrich

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY012912%20Crosstabs.pdf

President Obama won the state 62-37 in 2008 and looks to be in a max-out position.  If anyone wishes to ask under what circumstance the 'undecided' would break against the incumbent, then this is it -- when the incumbent has pushed the zone of the 'undecided' voters into the area of ideological opposition.

[pbrower2a]

CT, Yankee Institute/Rasmussen

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http://www.yankeeinstitute.org/2012/02/voters-back-obama-murphy-in-new-poll/

No surprise here in view of recent polls of neighboring New York and near-neighboring New Hampshire. Nothing on Ron Paul or Rick Santorum here. .  

under 1% white
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5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Quinnipiac, February 2012:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1700

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 

Outside of Chicagoland President Obama isn't so popular. Geographic lesson here: Outside of Greater Chicago, Illinois is quite rural. Political lesson here: President Obama does badly in rural areas. President Obama is the definitive "urban" President and does adequately in suburbia. The only rural areas in which he does well are those with large minority populations.

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http://www.wgntv.com/news/ct-met-0209-obama-poll-20120210,0,1888691.story

Nothing on Obama vs. Santorum or Obama vs. Paul, so nothing to change on the map.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/barack-obamas-approval-numbers-have-been-on-the-rise-nationally-as-of-late-and-the-same-trend-has-come-to-north-carolina-48.html#more

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Rasmussen, Ohio (with a "likely voters" screen)

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_presidential_election

(How can anyone predict what a "likely voter" is this early?)

under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

[Rasmussen: Obama up 3% on Romney, up 1% on Santorum


(How can anyone predict what a "likely voter" is this early?)

under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

And now, for the Great Mystery of the Ages -- how well will Rick Santorum do in California?

Obama: 60%  --  Romney: 31%

Obama: 61%  --  Santorum: 29%

Obama: 63%  --  Gingrich: 27%

Obama: 60%  --  Paul: 29%

Badly.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=39de218d-a465-4ca7-b7a4-752edc520da8

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Flawed polls (internals, one obsolete R and one D). No binary matchup other than Obama vs. Romney.  But it is Indiana, and beggars can't be choosers when it comes to Indiana polling, at least so far.    

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http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/feb/12/obama-office-signals-optimism-as-recession/

The 42% approval rating for the President is obsolete; it is from December, and from before the time when the President went from about 45% approval to about 50%. I would guess that the approval rating for the President is in the 46-48% range in Indiana, which is good enough at this stage for a bare win for the President in Indiana.

At this point, Indiana is a possible Obama win in the general election. The state will be a difficult takeover for Republicans, but not as difficult as Ohio. If Indiana is this close at this stage, then President Obama has a chance at 370 or so electoral votes. Indiana going for President Obama in 2008 was not simply a one-time freak event. The state is drifting D in statewide elections.  Just don't treat Indiana as "sure R". A weak Republican nominee for President can lose Indiana.

I suspect that if Dick Lugar is the nominee he wins decisively unless he suddenly goes erratic. But if Dick Lugar is tea-bagged, then Indiana might be a D Senate pickup. For President Obama that would be worth more than the 11 electoral votes of Indiana.  

under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Michigan

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Obama vs. Gingrich     56-34
Obama vs. Ron Paul    52-34
Obama vs. Romney     54-38
Obama vs. Santorum  50-39

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_215.pdf
 

Quinnipiac, New York (state). No surprise.

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1705

Quinnipiac, Ohio:

Obama vs. Gingrich 50-39
Obama vs. Ron Paul 46-41
Obama vs. Romney  46-44
Obama vs. Santorum 47-41

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1706

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, New Mexico. Safe Obama. Gingrich and R. Paul not shown.

Obama 55 - Romney 36
Obama 55 - Santorum 37

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum