Margins, Obama vs. Cain, Gingrich, and Romney

[pbrower2a]

California (Rasmussen):

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No changes needed here.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/california2/election_2012_california_president

Washington State (Survey USA) -- safe Obama against anyone.

Obama 56 - Gingrich 34
Obama 50 - Ron Paul 37
Obama 50 - Romney 39
Obama 51 - Santorum 38

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e4c63883-1bd5-4b68-aa9f-28ddca972884



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Could Massachusetts voters be tiring of voting for Democrats for President?

Romney-Republican ..............................  39%

Obama-Democrat .................................  53%



Santorum-Republican ............................ 32%

Obama-Democrat .................................  59%



Gingrich-Republican ............................  23%

Obama-Democrat ................................. 63%



Paul-Republican ................................  26%

Obama-Democrat .................................  60%


No, as this Suffolk University poll shows.

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FRIDAY_FINAL_MA_Statewide_Marginals_Feb_17_2012%281%29.pdf



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

I've been away for a while -- so here is an update.

Tennessee (category, Clinton win, Obama crushed in 2008)

http://www.castleton.edu/polling/feb12/2012primaries_additional.htm


38-42-10 Obama/Santorum/Not vote
39-42-10 Obama/Romney/Not vote
39-40-13 Obama/Paul/Not vote
41-38-12 Obama/Gingrich/Not vote

(Accept this poll at your own risk due to the large number of undecided voters)

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120226/NEWS02/302260066/Rick-Santorum-leads-big-TN-poll-finds

Vermont (one of the best states for Obama):

all over 20%

http://www.castleton.edu/polling/feb12/2012primaries_additional.htm

Virginia (Rasmussen):
 
Obama vs. Romney       49-42
Obama vs. Santorum    52-43

Arizona, PPP:

Obama vs. Gingrich 48-44
Obama vs. Paul 46-42
Obama vs. Romney 47-47
Obama vs. Santorum 46-47


(nothing on Gingrich or Paul)

Last week's poll on Iowa looks fishy.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_presidential_election



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

One that I missed (Montana, Rasmussen):

48% Romney
41% Obama

45% Santorum
41% Obama


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/montana/election_2012_montana_president

Gingrich and Paul are not shown in this poll, and I am stuck with obsolete polls for them for binary matchups  between them and the President. Chances of either Gingrich or Paul winning the state if nominated are much lower than they appear on the map. Their chances of winning the nomination are also both approaching zero, and it is only a matter of time before they become irrelevant by being mathematically eliminated or "suspending their campaigns" as did Bachmann and Perry.

At this point the safest prediction for the Presidential election of 2012 is a near-replay of the 2008 Presidential election against either. If Arizona looks like an exception such shows nothing more than the reversal of the Favorite Son effect. As in 2008, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina are clearly too close to call. Without John McCain as the nominee, Arizona would have been too close to call.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

NJ, Survey USA:

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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3856a747-3445-4697-aff6-b33c3b202aff

Other binary matchups have margins ranging from 14% (Romney) to 34% (Gingrich). I expect Gingrich to give up around midnight on Super Tuesday. 

Wisconsin, Rasmussen:

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under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[argentarius]

Did you just discard the Iowa poll? I think that you shouldn't do that because although it's fool's gold for republicans I wouldn't be surprised given what Iowans have been exposed to. And I notice you put Arkansas to Obama in Obama vs. Paul, was that a correction from a poll a while ago that you didn't put it into Paul's map or something?

[pbrower2a]

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under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Did you just discard the Iowa poll? I think that you shouldn't do that because although it's fool's gold for republicans I wouldn't be surprised given what Iowans have been exposed to. And I notice you put Arkansas to Obama in Obama vs. Paul, was that a correction from a poll a while ago that you didn't put it into Paul's map or something?

I did because it makes no sense except as transposition errors for all binary matchups of the President against everyone but Gingrich. Iowa is usually about 2% more R than either Minnesota or Wisconsin and much more D than Missouri which looks like a virtual tie. Selzer was usually a very good pollster in 2008 and likely will be again. Did someone at the Des Moines Register mis-set some type, perhaps?

Arkansas? There are no polls for Arkansas in recent months, That correction will be made. I must have done a typo. Arkansas should be gray. The pink shades for Kansas and Kentucky with Gingrich vs. Obama look suspect until you figure that it is against Newt Gingrich who seems like the sort who would lose badly against any mediocre incumbent.   

[pbrower2a]

Marist/MSNBC, Ohio --

Registered voters.

Obama 50 - Romney 38.
Obama 52 - Gingrich 36.
Obama 48 - Paul 38
Obama 50 - Santorum 36.

Santorum does one point better if he has Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) as a running mate.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristOhioMarch2012.pdf


Marist/MSNBC, Virginia --

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 52
Mitt Romney, the Republican - 35

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Mitt Romney and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 36

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 54
Rick Santorum, the Republican - 32

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Rick Santorum and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 34

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 57
Newt Gingrich, the Republican - 31

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 53
Ron Paul, the Republican - 32

This in a state that has gone for the Democratic nominee for President only twice in the last 60 years. Ohio has long been and Virginia may now be a legitimate swing state in a close Presidential election. It may be that President Obama is an unusually-good fit as a Democrat for Virginia.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristVirginiaMarch2012.pdf

Few combinations of states look closer to the American mean in partisan voting than these two states. Outliers? You tell me. Does Marist have a D bias by heavily picking young voters or voters in Cleveland and Richmond to an inordinate degree? Or is there some national trend just entering the polling results?

The Republican nominee will need both states to have a chance to win. If either state goes to President Obama by 10%, then President Obama has a landslide in the working.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Nebraska, Rasmussen:

Romney 52 - Obama 35

Rasmussen shows no other matchups.

PPP. Maine:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/.a/6a0133f2dd8001970b016763916452970b-800wi

President Obama basically intensifies his margins over all but Rick Santorum, for whom there was no earlier matchup -- and nothing is close. The state is homogeneous enough that neither of Maine's two Congressional seats has any likelihood of going for any Republican nominee this time.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, PPP:

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This may have an R bias, Just look at the split among voters:

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...President Obama won the state by about 12%. This looks like a 2010 electorate. Rick Santorum shows a huge favorite Son effect.

A Quinnipiac poll concurs.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[Wisconsin+17]

I love it how when the polls show Santorum > Romney, the maps show just the opposite. Bias much?

[milhouse24]

If Romney is beating Obama according to the latest ABC/WashPost poll at this point in time, then I think Romney can beat Obama 6 months from now.  Either way, the election will be very close, similar to 2004.  It will really be up to Romney to determine how he can get to 51%, probably by picking a strategic VP to pick up catholic voters. 

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_031412.pdf  

Fairleigh-Dickinson, New Jersey

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What is noteworthy is how badly the remaining Republicans do among women.


Newt Gingrich has become a joke.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

46% - Barack Obama (D)
43% - Mitt Romney (R)

45% - Barack Obama (D)
43% - Rick Santorum (R)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president

No change except for the exhaustion of precious time that the Republican challengers to the President can't get back. There is no way for the Republican nominee to lose Florida and win the 2012 Presidential election. Rasmussen has nothing on either Gingrich or Paul this time; apparently this pollster thinks them irrelevant. I'm not changing what I already have.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

In a matchup of President Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden against Romney and McDonnell, the Democrats win 50 - 43 percent.

Obama wins head to head against other Republican contenders:

    54 - 35 percent over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich;
    49 - 40 percent over former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum;
    49 - 39 percent over Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

This is consistent with President Obama losing Missouri and Arizona by high-single-digit margins on Rasmussen.

[pbrower2a]

Nevada, Rasmussen.  Nobody can reliably screen for "likely voters" at this stage, so I am ignoring Rasmussen polls that look like outliers in Arizona and Missouri. But those in Nevada for President Obama in Nevada are so blatant that there is no alternative explanation.


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Massachusetts, PPP:

This time PPP asked about Ron Paul. Mitt Romney might do even worse in the state in which he was Governor than McGovern did in South Dakota in 1972.  

Oregon, Survey USA

Obama vs. Romney 50-39
Obama vs. Gingrich 54-34
Obama vs. Santorum 49-40
Obama vs. Paul 48-39

Connecticut, Q:

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, Virginia:

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President Obama won the state by about 7% in 2008.  This almost suggests a Republican collapse in the Presidential election no matter who is nominated.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG)

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http://americanresearchgroup.com/

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Another California poll shows President Obama crushing ever potential Republican nominee.



Yawn!

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas:

http://talkbusiness.net/2012/03/obama-holding-democrats-but-failing-with-independent-voters/

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Barack Obama is doing?

32%       Approve
63.5%   Disapprove
4.5%      Don’t Know

If the 2012 presidential election were held today and your choices were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

56.5%     Mitt Romney
33%        Barack Obama
10.5%     Don’t Know

...at this point I figure that President Obama would actually pick up a majority of those in the "Don't Know" category because at this point most of the "Don't Know" are mostly Democratic-leaning voters. That's far from enough to make this state, once a reliable state for Democrats except in R blowouts except when a segregationist was running, even close in November.  

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Nothing for Gingrich (who cares, and I am about to drop him anyway), Paul, or Santorum here.

Quinnipiac will show polls for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at 6:30 AM EDT tomorrow.


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1727

Obama doing better in Florida than in Pennsylvania? Could it be that Cuban-Americans are drifting D in Florida? Better in Ohio than in Pennsylvania? It could be the auto industry.

No mention of Gingrich or Paul.

No way does any Republican nominee win the Presidency without two of these three states. Quinnipiac seems to be the most R-leaning of major pollsters that I generally accept (probably more than Rasmussen), which suggests how poor the chances look for anyone challenging President Obama in November.   Al three of the states have Republicans governors, and I can imagine Governor Scott giving a little help to his friends in November if the statewide election is close and Florida is the difference. But 7%? It's hard to rig an election credibly. (Yes, I think that Rick Scott is that corrupt, just like Scott Walker in Wisconsin). I just can't see him risking a federal prison term for doing so  should Eric Holder is sure to return as Attorney General of the United States.  Pennsylvania tends to break D late because of union GOTV drives. 

Carter won all three states in 1976 (and needed them all). Reagan and the elder Bush won all three in R landslides in 1980, 1984, and 1988. Clinton won two of the three in 1992 and all three in 1996. Gore won only one (would have won had he won in Florida); Kerry barely won Pennsylvania and lost the other two (but he would have won with Ohio). Obama won all three. 





under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

PPP rates Nebraska by its districts. PPP's text does not indicate whether the polling relates to the new districts or the old ones. NE-02 is a legitimate swing district this time, no matter who the Republican nominee will be.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

52% Barack Obama (D)
41% Mitt Romney (R)

51% Barack Obama (D)
39% Rick Santorum (R)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president

About as in 2008.

Corroboration:

51-38 Obama/Santorum
51-36 Obama/Paul
52-35 Obama/Romney
56-31 Obama/Gingrich

Obama Approval:

50-40

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/330-romney-leads-santorum-by-7-points-in-wisconsin

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

Obama vs. Ron Paul

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[Tender Branson]

You need to change the title, Cain is no longer in the race.