Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[LastVoter]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_legislative_election,_2011
I could even vote in those, since there is an embassy in Seattle. I think that Putin's party will lose some seats. If I am going to vote I would probably vote for the coalition party of social-democrats that got 7% last election, which is the threshold required for obtaining seats. I think Communists would be a better strategic vote since they would definitely get 7%, but the history and their view on is disturbing. The other opposition party, Liberals is for unrestricted capitalism and xenophobia, so they are even worse than the status quo.

[greenforest32]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_legislative_election,_2011
I could even vote in those, since there is an embassy in Seattle. I think that Putin's party will lose some seats. If I am going to vote I would probably vote for the coalition party of social-democrats that got 7% last election, which is the threshold required for obtaining seats. I think Communists would be a better strategic vote since they would definitely get 7%, but the history and their view on is disturbing. The other opposition party, Liberals is for unrestricted capitalism and xenophobia, so they are even worse than the status quo.

You're a Russian citizen seatown?

One thing I always found interesting about the PNW is that while it's predominantly white (is getting less so of course) there is a sizable minority chunk of Eastern Europeans (Ukraine, Russia, etc) in that white demographic. It's pretty common to hear people speak Russian down here in the Portland metro area.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to my calculations

The Pro-Kremlin and Pro-Putin Conservative Party is set to lose between 23 and 51 seats. It will retain it's Majority.
The Communists will gain between 17 and 30
The Socialist/Social-Democrats will Lose between 18 and negative 1 (gain 1)
While the Nationalist/NAZI Party will gain between 4 and 27 seats.

Averages:
Conservatives: 279
Communist: 82
Nationalist: 57
Socialist: 32


Of these parties only the Socialists and (ironically) the Communists are seen as not being overtly pro-Kremlin and thus pro-Dictator, at least, pro-current-dictator

[ag]

Who the hell are the conservatives, or socialists, or nationalists? Do you mean United Russia, Just Russia and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia? United Russia is not conservative, Just Russia is not socialist, and LDPR is no nationalist. UR and JR report to the same office in the Kremlin - give me a break about JR not being pro-Kremlin - its leaders wouldn't dare to fart in public if not explicitly authorized to do so. LDPR, of course, has been created somewhere around the Lubyanka Square and has always been loyal to its creators - at least, Zhirinovsky used to be funny some 20 years ago. And the Commies... well, yeah, the Commies are the Commies, reliably impotent despite everything (I guess, chemical castration is a prerequisite for being allowed on the party electoral slate).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

[ag]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

[LastVoter]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

I don't think you understand how Russian election works. They are fixed in Chechnya and other conflict areas of russia to vote 99% for UR, but in the rest of Russia they are about as fair as US elections, and reflect public opinion/polling pretty well. 7% threshold for representation is also a big barrier.

[Хahar 🤔]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

I don't think you understand how Russian election works. They are fixed in Chechnya and other conflict areas of russia to vote 99% for UR, but in the rest of Russia they are about as fair as US elections, and reflect public opinion/polling pretty well. 7% threshold for representation is also a big barrier.

ag is Russian-born, so I think he understands.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

It's from the #1 election projectionist in Canada in the last Federal election, who also got closer than anyone else in BC in 2009, who knows how to use polls to determine election results, especially when proportional representation is used.

[Хahar 🤔]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

It's from the #1 election projectionist in Canada in the last Federal election, who also got closer than anyone else in BC in 2009, who knows how to use polls to determine election results, especially when proportional representation is used.

These aren't elections, though.

[MaxQue]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

It's from the #1 election projectionist in Canada in the last Federal election, who also got closer than anyone else in BC in 2009, who knows how to use polls to determine election results, especially when proportional representation is used.

In an election, people vote.
In Russia, who knows?

[Leftbehind]

In Russia politicians vote you. [/lame meme]

[ag]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

It's from the #1 election projectionist in Canada in the last Federal election, who also got closer than anyone else in BC in 2009, who knows how to use polls to determine election results, especially when proportional representation is used.

Even if people vote both early and often?

I am pretty sure Canadian projectionists haven't had much of an experience with either Russian pollsters or Russian elections.

Though, truth be told, there is information contained in both the electoral results and the polls: it's not pure noise, they do (in a way) vote and they do (in a way) count. It's just that Canadian assumptions have to be modified when figuring out what it is.

[ag]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

I don't think you understand how Russian election works. They are fixed in Chechnya and other conflict areas of russia to vote 99% for UR, but in the rest of Russia they are about as fair as US elections, and reflect public opinion/polling pretty well. 7% threshold for representation is also a big barrier.

You, surely, remember the last Moscow City Duma election. Or is Moscow in Chechnya?

I think I understand how the Russian elections work pretty well, thank you. You have a point, though. They are about as fair as elections in the Deep South in the 1920s.

BTW, there isn't an embassy in Seattle - it's called a Consulate General. They opened it, if my memory serves me right, after the 1986 Goodwill Games in Moscow (recall those? yeah, I am an old geezer). Never voted there, but I did vote over the years in New York and DC - used to be fun, trust me.

PS. Oy, wey. I just realized you called the LDPR both "Liberals" and "opposition". I haven't laughed this much in a long time, thank you. Frankly, I think it is you who has to learn something about Russia, not me ))) 

[ag]

I AM an old geezer, actually. It seems only yesterday I watched that "Vremya" newscast where they reported on the First Congress of the Liberal Democratic Party of the Soviet Union and showed the world for the first time that Turkish-speaking ex-legal advisor for a Jewish cultural group that they've selected for the nazi-in-chief to fake multi-party politics. It was a hoot performance from the very first and he he has been a reliable stand-up act ever since.

[LastVoter]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

I don't think you understand how Russian election works. They are fixed in Chechnya and other conflict areas of russia to vote 99% for UR, but in the rest of Russia they are about as fair as US elections, and reflect public opinion/polling pretty well. 7% threshold for representation is also a big barrier.

You, surely, remember the last Moscow City Duma election. Or is Moscow in Chechnya?

I think I understand how the Russian elections work pretty well, thank you. You have a point, though. They are about as fair as elections in the Deep South in the 1920s.

BTW, there isn't an embassy in Seattle - it's called a Consulate General. They opened it, if my memory serves me right, after the 1986 Goodwill Games in Moscow (recall those? yeah, I am an old geezer). Never voted there, but I did vote over the years in New York and DC - used to be fun, trust me.

PS. Oy, wey. I just realized you called the LDPR both "Liberals" and "opposition". I haven't laughed this much in a long time, thank you. Frankly, I think it is you who has to learn something about Russia, not me ))) 

Small l liberal, as in their approach to economy. I am thinking something like Ron Paul with xenophobia/nationalism as their social stance.  The proper way to describe them on American political scale would be very conservative.  Opposition is a wrong term obviously, but it's a different party from United Russia. But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America. I think the broken pro-status quo media is the problem.

[Hash]

This thread would be an absolute trainwreck if ag wasn't around. Sigh...

[GMantis]

But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America.

What is the interest of the Russian voters?

[ag]

[
Small l liberal, as in their approach to economy.

They have an approach to economy? That, I am afraid, would be a news even to them ))  They reliably vote for whatever any Soviet government tells them to vote. Most other stand-up comedians have more of a political ideology then them.

How old were you when you left Russia?

[ag]

But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America.

What is the interest of the Russian voters?

It would make sense to ask them ))

[GMantis]

But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America.

What is the interest of the Russian voters?

It would make sense to ask them ))

That's what I'm doing Especially as he seems to know what the interests of other voters are.

[ag]

But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America.

What is the interest of the Russian voters?

It would make sense to ask them ))

That's what I'm doing Especially as he seems to know what the interests of other voters are.

He even seems to think they are being asked!

[Insula Dei]

Please tell me I'm not utterly wrong when I believe the LDPR to be nothing but an excuse for Putin to do as he pleases, because the West 'may not like us, but I guess they wouldn't like Zhirinovsky any better'.

[ag]

Please tell me I'm not utterly wrong when I believe the LDPR to be nothing but an excuse for Putin to do as he pleases, because the West 'may not like us, but I guess they wouldn't like Zhirinovsky any better'.

That's, actually, secondary in importance. Mostly it is the way to securely stack votes of Russia's rednecks, who think they are voting against the government, while justifying existence of another reliably pro-government block in the Duma.

[LastVoter]

[
Small l liberal, as in their approach to economy.

They have an approach to economy? That, I am afraid, would be a news even to them ))  They reliably vote for whatever any Soviet government tells them to vote. Most other stand-up comedians have more of a political ideology then them.

How old were you when you left Russia?

11

But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America.

What is the interest of the Russian voters?

It would make sense to ask them ))

That's what I'm doing Especially as he seems to know what the interests of other voters are.

He even seems to think they are being asked!

You don't have to ask them. Read my analogy carefully. Or do you trhink UR and their dictator is most capable of leading Russia?