Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Chukotka, the turf of a pro-government oligarch, Abramovich, has gotten a relatively sweet deal for a long time).

Who, of course, also owns one of Satan's football clubs.

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Ah, right. Would maps be worth the trouble or not?

[ag]

(Chukotka, the turf of a pro-government oligarch, Abramovich, has gotten a relatively sweet deal for a long time).

Who, of course, also owns one of Satan's football clubs.

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Ah, right. Would maps be worth the trouble or not?

Second place and vote share maps - sure.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, right. Would maps be worth the trouble or not?

Non-negotiably necessary.

Oh yeah, Chukotka.

1989, population 164k. 108k Russians, 27k Ukrainians, 12k Chukchi
2002, population 54k. 28k Russians, 13k Chukchi, 5k Ukrainians

[ag]

BTW, head of the Electoral Commission hasn't been seen all evening.

Yakutia-Saha (84% reporting):

UR 50.04%
JR 21.54%
Commies 16.13%
LDPR 8.2%
Yabloko 1.63%

[ag]

Well, yeah, there is no reason for a Russian to live there - it's a hellhole. But whoever's left has been dealt w/ decently. Anadyr (the state capital) looks prettier than it ever had in its history.

[ag]

Direct report from Irkutsk region:

64.78% reporting

UR 34.83%
Commies 27.5%
LDPR 17.33%
JR 13.5%
Yabloko 3.56%
PR 1.21%
JC 0.58%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Chukotka, the turf of a pro-government oligarch, Abramovich, has gotten a relatively sweet deal for a long time).

Who, of course, also owns one of Satan's football clubs.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ah, right. Would maps be worth the trouble or not?

Second place and vote share maps - sure.

Alright then. Just so long as you point me in the direction of the figures and all that.

[minionofmidas]

Well, yeah, there is no reason for a Russian to live there - it's a hellhole. But whoever's left has been dealt w/ decently. Anadyr (the state capital) looks prettier than it ever had in its history.

Yeah, the population barely fell 2002-10. All the people who were there only because they had a job there and were banned from looking for another one left in the 90s. Which leads to a native reconquest of sorts which is cool.
Sakha has a similar phenomenon (and a native population explosion)

1989m 1,094mio. 550k Russians, 365k Yakuts, 77k Ukrainians, 14k Evenk
2002, population 949k. 432k Yakut, 391k Russians, 35k Ukrainians, 18k Evenk

Population has slightly risen since.

[Pingvin]

From LJ:
In general, the situation is this: to Revolution Square, urged on 20 military vehicles of Internal Troops, riot police and many other men in uniform. Around the area - about 20 cars of riot police. Paddy. Along the way, men are serious.

With half an hour ago, went on Leningradka toward the area.
 In the area of ​​Sokol I went to meet the column, with flashing lights and at full speed.
 True, there were trucks and keyway, and 40 pieces, and all 15 machines.
 Honestly, did not consider in detail.
 But the cavalcade was still impressive. Campaign, on the other side of the track the rest of the stream either to the right lane pressed, or even braked, because while en route to a meeting no one was to be seen.

Red Square and Manezhnaya are cordoned off!

Police and OMON from Belarusskaya to Pushkinskaya !

[Pingvin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw-5y9fy4zU&feature=player_embedded - Moscow, precinct N2501

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw-5y9fy4zU&feature=player_embedded - Moscow, precinct N2501

I don't get what's happening

[Pingvin]

Head of comission fills ballots for ER
Some guy and Commie observer are trying to stop him

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

IF Yabloko can manage 5% they get 1 seat; 6% 2 seats; and 7% their fair share. However since the admin hates them I doubt it.

I'm a bit shocked given polls that LDPR is so low.

The fair share of vote would be in seats:
235 UR
96 COM
62 JR
55 LDPR
(rounded)

however my prediction, given the non-democratic state of the elections:
240 UR
86 COM
64 LDPR
60 JR

[smoltchanov]

Plausible numbers given astronomical percentages which ER (or UR, if you wish) will get in some national republic of North Caucasus. The only thing that "surprises" me there (in Chechnya for example) is that voting turnout is NOT 110% of voters and ER percentage is NOT 105% of vote))))

[Tender Branson]

Looks like a great election day in Europe !

Conservatives getting trashed in every country: Slovenia, Croatia and Russia.

United Russia could end up at 45% (without all the faking it would probably only have 30-35%).

[smoltchanov]

Probably - about 50%. With all the faking. Without - yes, 30--35, or even less. But it wasn't a "victory for the left" either - just a very strong "protest vote".. A lot of people voted "anyone, but UR"....

[ag]

ok. Off to the consulate. Web site specifies that they should be there till 8 PM - let's see if they finished it early due to everybody having voted ))

[ag]

Back from the embassy. In 7:30 PM, out by 7:40 PM local time. Besides me, one voter within the precinct at the time. They told me that by 4 PM they had 346 (?) ballots issued. Haven't checked, but I am under the impression it is a lot, compared to the past elections. No voter list. By accident I used my Latin signature, instead of the Cyrillic one that's in the passport - nobody noticed.

[ag]

Exit poll for Moscow showed UR 27%, the official results show 46%, whatever that is supposed to mean )

W/ 90% precincts reporting, the nationwide official results show UR at 49.93% (including 99%+ in Chechnya). Given what was going on, it is highly unlikely that they really got more than 35% - may be, 40%, tops. And that's not taking into account what has been done to the opposition and the power of the government over the small fry employees/soldiers/etc. In anything like an honest election they'd struggle to get 30%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which is quite the turnaround. Anyway; is there a link with figures anywhere?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I use this to re-present my argument that Russia is more democratic than the Arab countries. If the opposition is under-reperesnted at .769* here than I compare this to the Arab countries where it was closer to .1


*This means that in short, the opposition parties only have 3/4th the support they'd have in a real election, where as in arab countries, it was closer to 1/10th.

[ag]

CIK site is deliberately awful, but try this:


http://www.cikrf.ru/vid/counter.html

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

in order:
CP = Just Russia
blue/yellow = Liberal Democrats
Yellow = Patriots
Red = Communists
White w Red Circle = Yabloko
most votes = Putin's Party
Last place = Just Cause (right wing)

Yabloko probably would have won seats had the election been fair

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

And my math based results

63 Just Russia
56 Liberal Democrats
92 Communist Party
239 United Russia


and what I think the results would have been in a fair election


70   Just Russia
62   Liberal Democrats
112   Communist
26   Yabloko
180   United Russia

[ag]

You mean Arab countries other than Tunis and Egypt, I presume.

Those, of course, are outright dictatorships. But neither is Russia a democracy.

To begin with, the only proper parliamentary opposition are the Commies. LDPR is a creature of the security services ("KGB") and it's MPs are, normally, more reliable votes for the government than even some of the UR members. JR is, originally, created as a backup pro-government label, in case UR goes wrong. The real opposition parties have been thoroughly eviscerated, so those voting against the government wind up voting for these joke parties (for many voting Communist is still distasteful), but they aren't going to behave as opposition in the Duma.

More importantly, Russia isn't a democracy, because power cannot change in it in an election. The degree of disgust w/ the government sufficient for a revolution is, probably, smaller than the degree of disgust necessary for the "electoral" machinery to produce any result other than a UR victory. Exactly like it was in Egypt.