Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[minionofmidas]

Um... no. The elected institutions at anything below the state level (and you know how huge they are) are utterly powerless, the real power players being a byzantine web of career bureaucrats.
The police are so corrupt and so violent that their word is not admissible as evidence in court... which has turned out to not be a practicable solution either.

[scoopa]

Bull. Look at India.

But India is an outlier explained by the strong tradition of constitutionalism that I mentioned And the agrarian reform is very important: it created a strong class of landowners, private entrepeneurs. It's no coincidence that the democracy in India - which is very far from perfect - is more dysfunctional in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where land reform failed.

http://muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/world_politics/v049/49.2przeworski.html

Looking at the empirical evidence, democracies are way more likely to survive in affluent countries.

From that paper:

- the life expectancy of democracies in countries with the a GPD per capita (ppp adj. to 2000) below $1,500 is 8 years.
- if it's between $1,500 and and $3,000, it's 18 years.
- a GDP above $6,000 makes the democratic regime pretty much untouchable and a democracies with a GPD per capita above $9,000 never died - not a single one of them. However, out of the 69 poorest democratic regimes, 39 died within 10 years.

There's an excellent and seminal work on this issue, authored by the late Seymour Martin Lipset, "Some Social. Requisites of Democracy". It was written more than 50 years ago but it remains actual.

 http://www.jstor.org/pss/1951731

[Pingvin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSmz4zo0L90
ER agent gets screwed! Btw, going to voting booth right now (I'm bringing my own pen because I heard that their agents began underlay pens with disappearing ink)

[Harry Hayfield]

Can I ask what time the votes start being counted? I am aware that Russia is a multiple timezone country and that the polls in Kaliningrad close at 1700 GMT.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Although it reminds me a bit of joining one of the East German bloc parties in order to avoid the SED, I would probably vote for Just Russia.

So an unenthusiastic "Go Just Russia, um, whatever..." from me. At least it helps taking away seats from Zhirinovsky or something.

[Pingvin]

My parents voted for Right Cause because they RC are pro-gun. Polls are already closed in Far-east and East Siberia.
Results from VKontakte poll (Russian facebook analog):
United Russia - 29205 (14.31%)
CPRF - 28565 (14%)
LDPR - 50414 (24.7%)
Just Russia - 18403 (9.2%)
Yabloko - 16403 (8.04%)
Patriots of Russia - 1863 (0.91% - lol)
Rigjht Cause - 3170 (1.55%)
Boycott election - 56083 (27.48%)

[smoltchanov]

I voted for Apple ("Yabloko" in Russian). The results will begin to tricle after 21-00 Moscow time. If i am correct - that's 17.00 GMT. Though votes  are undobtlely already counted on Far east, after all it's about 1:30am December 5th in Chukotka right now))))

[ag]

I am considering strolling to the embassy around closing time to see if they've voted me )

[Tender Branson]

I have heard of reports that patients would not be treated anymore while in hospitals if they don't vote for UR, people fired from their workplaces and other intimidations. Nice election strategies by the Putin-Party ...

[Pingvin]

40 trucks with OMON are coming to Moscow. ********************!

[Tender Branson]

40 trucks with OMON are coming to Moscow. ********************!

OMON = SWAT (I think)

(for non-Russians)

[Pingvin]

Yes. They would most likely attack opposition at Manezhnaya and Triumphalnaya squares. Also ER office in Bryansk was attacked with Molotov cocktails!

[Harry Hayfield]

Exit Poll
(Source: Russia Today)

Russia Today 48.5% -14.8% on 2007
Communists 19.0% +7.4% on 2007
Fair Russia 12.8% +4.1% on 2007
Liberal Democrats 11.4% +3.3% on 2007
No other party qualifies for seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exit Poll
(Source: Russia Today)

Russia Today 48.5% -14.8% on 2007
Communists 19.0% +7.4% on 2007
Fair Russia 12.8% +4.1% on 2007
Liberal Democrats 11.4% +3.3% on 2007
No other party qualifies for seats

I'm saving that joke by quoting it, unless it's a minor error.

[ag]

First exit poll:

United Russia 48.5%
Communists 19.8%
Just Russia 12.8%
LDPR 11.4%
Yaboloko 4.2%
Just Cause 1.1%
Patriots of Russia 0.9%
spoilt ballots 1.3%

[Harry Hayfield]

First exit poll:

United Russia 48.5%
Communists 19.8%
Just Russia 12.8%
LDPR 11.4%
Yaboloko 4.2%
Just Cause 1.1%
Patriots of Russia 0.9%
spoilt ballots 1.3%

Beat me to it!

[ag]

First "official results" for a "state":

Chukotka (100% reporting)

UR 70.32%
LDPR 11.24%
Communists 6.7%
JR 4.79%
Yabloko 1.71%

[Hash]

Any source for regional results?

[ag]

Kamchatka (70%+ reporting)

UR 46.64%
LDPR 18.41%
Commies 16.53
JR 10.02%
Yabloko 3.81%
Patriots of Russia 2.11%

[ag]

Any source for regional results?

Feed from gazeta.ru (in Russian), from their correspondent at the Electoral Commission.

[ag]

Mind it: most Russian sites that planned reporting have been down for most of the day: denial of service attacks. So has been the livejournal.com, which is Russia's main blogging site.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mind it: most Russian sites that planned reporting have been down for most of the day: denial of service attacks.

Gosh, how shocking. Anyway. How likely are the patterns shown in the results to show anything of interest?

[ag]

Mind it: most Russian sites that planned reporting have been down for most of the day: denial of service attacks.

Gosh, how shocking. Anyway. How likely are the patterns shown in the results to show anything of interest?

It is already of interest. That LDPR is in second in Chukotka and Kamchatka is credible : they have always been strong in the Far East. That UR is under 50% in Kamchatka is quite interesting, and even that it is much stronger in Chukotka is credible (Chukotka, the turf of a pro-government oligarch, Abramovich, has gotten a relatively sweet deal for a long time).

Of course, the exact numbers are nonsense, and the election wouldn't have been either fair or free even if they weren't, and Chechnya is going to report 100% for UR on 120% turnout. But the patterns are there.

[DL]

Exit Poll
(Source: Russia Today)

Russia Today 48.5% -14.8% on 2007
Communists 19.0% +7.4% on 2007
Fair Russia 12.8% +4.1% on 2007
Liberal Democrats 11.4% +3.3% on 2007
No other party qualifies for seats

Is the cut off for representation 5%?

[Middle-aged Europe]

7% for proportional representation

I think you get a single seat for more than 5% and two seats for more than 6% of the votes. From 7% onwards it's proportional allocation.

Weird system.