Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[tpfkaw]

The map is actually kinda amusing, the strongest UR areas appear to be the ones that receive the most "pork."

Receive the most pork, or the local strongmen are sycophant to the Kremlin and need to show it?

Both are true, obviously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Хahar 🤔]

Why did Yabloko do so well in Moscow city? It seems odd that it would be delivered to ER but then give a better result for the opposition than Moscow oblast.

[LastVoter]

My understanding of the map:


Purple = Seem to be a local thing, probably (a) popular local official(s) friendly to Putin.
Green = I really can't explain this
Red = This is the one that I notice first, most strikingly, and, I can indeed explain. If you check the history of the Soviet Union you will see that this is the area that was most pro-communist. Being aware of Russian culture, I have my doubts that this, in the long-run, was due to any kind of left-wing base, at least, left as we know it. This area seems to be the part of Russia that truly appreciates "strong" leadership. IE my read is that they know Putin is a dictator, and, love him for it. Contrast this with the northern area of European Russia. Many of Putin's former Power bases (like Vladivostok, dangling off the bottom of the east) have been lost, but this remains. I expect that this would be the area that would swing to any new dictator should Putin get canned.

The red area is where the pork goes and the ethnical minorities reside in Russia.

[Hash]

I found this gem on RIA Novosti's page about the result in Chechnya particularly endearing:

With a 99.5 percent voter turnout at 456 polling stations, United Russia received support of 607,909 voters in Chechnya.

This is just amazing!

In Canada these days if you can get 50% of the voters out it is a really big deal.

So to be able to get a 99.5% voter turnout is really pretty incredible.

I congratulate all of the voters of Chechnya for their support of the Russian election.

It would make for an interesting RIA Novosti article to learn why the Chechnyains are so passionate about their right to vote.

It is inspiring to see so many people in Chechnya supporting their democratic freedom to vote.

Even more interesting that 99.6% of the vote went to the United Russia party. Normally there is more of a variation in how people vote.

Arnold Vinette
Ottawa, Canada

[Insula Dei]

I found this gem on RIA Novosti's page about the result in Chechnya particularly endearing:

With a 99.5 percent voter turnout at 456 polling stations, United Russia received support of 607,909 voters in Chechnya.

This is just amazing!

In Canada these days if you can get 50% of the voters out it is a really big deal.

So to be able to get a 99.5% voter turnout is really pretty incredible.

I congratulate all of the voters of Chechnya for their support of the Russian election.

It would make for an interesting RIA Novosti article to learn why the Chechnyains are so passionate about their right to vote.

It is inspiring to see so many people in Chechnya supporting their democratic freedom to vote.

Even more interesting that 99.6% of the vote went to the United Russia party. Normally there is more of a variation in how people vote.

Arnold Vinette
Ottawa, Canada

Maybe we should replicate Chechen democratic culture in the West.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I found this gem on RIA Novosti's page about the result in Chechnya particularly endearing:

With a 99.5 percent voter turnout at 456 polling stations, United Russia received support of 607,909 voters in Chechnya.

This is just amazing!

In Canada these days if you can get 50% of the voters out it is a really big deal.

So to be able to get a 99.5% voter turnout is really pretty incredible.

I congratulate all of the voters of Chechnya for their support of the Russian election.

It would make for an interesting RIA Novosti article to learn why the Chechnyains are so passionate about their right to vote.

It is inspiring to see so many people in Chechnya supporting their democratic freedom to vote.

Even more interesting that 99.6% of the vote went to the United Russia party. Normally there is more of a variation in how people vote.

Arnold Vinette
Ottawa, Canada

Who is this guy ?

[LastVoter]

http://esquire.ru/elections
Interesting read(Russian0

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I found this gem on RIA Novosti's page about the result in Chechnya particularly endearing:

With a 99.5 percent voter turnout at 456 polling stations, United Russia received support of 607,909 voters in Chechnya.

This is just amazing!

In Canada these days if you can get 50% of the voters out it is a really big deal.

So to be able to get a 99.5% voter turnout is really pretty incredible.

I congratulate all of the voters of Chechnya for their support of the Russian election.

It would make for an interesting RIA Novosti article to learn why the Chechnyains are so passionate about their right to vote.

It is inspiring to see so many people in Chechnya supporting their democratic freedom to vote.

Even more interesting that 99.6% of the vote went to the United Russia party. Normally there is more of a variation in how people vote.

Arnold Vinette
Ottawa, Canada

Sounds like satire to me, but if not...

[ag]

Why did Yabloko do so well in Moscow city? It seems odd that it would be delivered to ER but then give a better result for the opposition than Moscow oblast.

I don't quite get you. Yabloko is the last semi-surviving remnant of the 1990s democrats, and support for those in Moscow is non-negligible. As the Just Cause is now pretty much dead, all their votes get consolidated. In those precincts in Moscow where the vote count and reporting went decently they got fairly good results - they'd got much better ones, if most people weren't convinced the Yabloko vote would be wasted, as the party has never been given much of a chance of getting into the Duma. Still, a lot of people voted for them: they were the only party for whom you could vote without having to suppress nausea. 

[Хahar 🤔]

Why did Yabloko do so well in Moscow city? It seems odd that it would be delivered to ER but then give a better result for the opposition than Moscow oblast.

I don't quite get you. Yabloko is the last semi-surviving remnant of the 1990s democrats, and support for those in Moscow is non-negligible. As the Just Cause is now pretty much dead, all their votes get consolidated. In those precincts in Moscow where the vote count and reporting went decently they got fairly good results - they'd got much better ones, if most people weren't convinced the Yabloko vote would be wasted, as the party has never been given much of a chance of getting into the Duma. Still, a lot of people voted for them: they were the only party for whom you could vote without having to suppress nausea. 

I was asking why both ER and Yabloko were higher in Moscow proper than in the surroundings. Since the results in the city were altered to give a better ER result, why not also lower the Yabloko result?

[Verily]

Pretty sure what happened in Moscow was ballot-stuffing for UR, not full-fledged fabrication of the results like what happened in Chechnya and probably some places elsewhere.

[2952-0-0]

Another question for the Russians here: how loyal are the Nashi/Putinjugend? Do they genuinely believe that Putin is awesome or do they enlist for privileges?

[ag]

Why did Yabloko do so well in Moscow city? It seems odd that it would be delivered to ER but then give a better result for the opposition than Moscow oblast.

I don't quite get you. Yabloko is the last semi-surviving remnant of the 1990s democrats, and support for those in Moscow is non-negligible. As the Just Cause is now pretty much dead, all their votes get consolidated. In those precincts in Moscow where the vote count and reporting went decently they got fairly good results - they'd got much better ones, if most people weren't convinced the Yabloko vote would be wasted, as the party has never been given much of a chance of getting into the Duma. Still, a lot of people voted for them: they were the only party for whom you could vote without having to suppress nausea.  

I was asking why both ER and Yabloko were higher in Moscow proper than in the surroundings. Since the results in the city were altered to give a better ER result, why not also lower the Yabloko result?

Ah, they did. Exit poll in Moscow gave Yabloko about twice what it got officially (almost 16%). In many of the "honest" precincts it is well above 20% (in some it is even the top party). But it (and the late JC) have always been far stronger in the city proper - so that's not surprising at all.

[ag]

Pretty sure what happened in Moscow was ballot-stuffing for UR, not full-fledged fabrication of the results like what happened in Chechnya and probably some places elsewhere.

Actually, not quite. There was everything - depended on the precinct. In many precincts results are quite genuine, in others there was ballot stuffing and in quite a few they got them completely invented - they've documented it all. There is a fair share of precincts were UR "got" 85%+ (in one case 94%) of the vote - and these are not strange precincts like hospitals or prisons, but regular precincts, sometimes mere meters away from precincts where they got 25%, in identical housing stock. It all depended on precinct committee chairmen, observers, etc., etc. In a few cases committee chairmen simply disappeared after the polls closed from under the nose of the observers, after which outright fabrications appeared on the reporting website. It was a major struggle to get certified vote counts (by law they are supposed to be provided to each observer).

[ag]

Another question for the Russians here: how loyal are the Nashi/Putinjugend? Do they genuinely believe that Putin is awesome or do they enlist for privileges?

It's Hitlerjugend - most of them don't really have brains, they are cheap. A few at the top get more substantial payments. More serious genuine supporters are, probably, not wasted on this nonsense.

[ag]

I was asking why both ER and Yabloko were higher in Moscow proper than in the surroundings. Since the results in the city were altered to give a better ER result, why not also lower the Yabloko result?

Actually, to see what they did to Yabloko you may want to stare at this picture:

http://oude-rus.livejournal.com/540865.html

Data is by Moscow city precinct. The left plot is for UR, the right for Yabloko. On the horizontal axis is turnout, on the vertical axis party vote share. Russia still has too many statisticians ))

[ag]

Another illustration of what happened in Moscow is here:

http://anderson-mike.livejournal.com/21380.html

These are full data from a very regular "bedroom" district of Moscow (Golyanovo), by precinct (precinct number on horizontal axis, UR vote share on the vertical). The second graph is 2007 election - there is some variation precinct-by-precinct, but it is minor (no precinct is below 40%, no precinct is above 60%): it is a homogenous area, settled under the Soviets, when people where assigned housing rather randomly, with, I believe, fairly little new construction where any sort of population sorting would manifest itself. The third graph is 2011 - you can immediately see huge variance (a few precincts barely give UR 20%, others are in the 90s). First graph is the second and third superimposed.

So, yeah, there are quite a few precincts where the results are simply invented.

[Pingvin]

Another question for the Russians here: how loyal are the Nashi/Putinjugend? Do they genuinely believe that Putin is awesome or do they enlist for privileges?

5% - idea
95% - students that working for a meal and a 500 roubles

[minionofmidas]

I was asking why both ER and Yabloko were higher in Moscow proper than in the surroundings. Since the results in the city were altered to give a better ER result, why not also lower the Yabloko result?

Actually, to see what they did to Yabloko you may want to stare at this picture:

http://oude-rus.livejournal.com/540865.html

Data is by Moscow city precinct. The left plot is for UR, the right for Yabloko. On the horizontal axis is turnout, on the vertical axis party vote share. Russia still has too many statisticians ))

Pretty cool graph. Hilariously blatant.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The most serious party in all of Russia, clearly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fair Russia. Which, from this series, leaves only the Commies. Tomorrow, probably.

[ag]

I was asking why both ER and Yabloko were higher in Moscow proper than in the surroundings. Since the results in the city were altered to give a better ER result, why not also lower the Yabloko result?

Actually, to see what they did to Yabloko you may want to stare at this picture:

http://oude-rus.livejournal.com/540865.html

Data is by Moscow city precinct. The left plot is for UR, the right for Yabloko. On the horizontal axis is turnout, on the vertical axis party vote share. Russia still has too many statisticians ))

Pretty cool graph. Hilariously blatant.

Especially blatant in the country of mathematicians )
632305222316434

[LastVoter]

seems at least 25,000 RSVP'd on facebook to protest the elections on Saturday.

[Pingvin]

from life-news.ru (sorry for Google translator):
Columns of military vehicles with new troops marched in Moscow on Tuesday, a day after the protest ended with a record clashes with police. According to available data columns of internal troops car headed to Moscow through the main thoroughfares, including Yaroslavl highway, Leningrad highway and road enthusiasts.
Among these units was observed and Dzerzhinskoye internal forces, which specializes in the suppression of mass protests.
Interior Ministry officials said that the police themselves turned to the internal troops. The police said that the danger level of disorder has grown considerably, and that the police can no longer cope on their own.
According to them, the only task forces is to ensure public safety.
A crowd of about 15,000 gathered at Chistoprudny Boulevard on Monday to express their disagreement with the results of elections to the Duma, which was accompanied by numerous reports of violations.
The rally was officially allowed, but some protesters tried to organize an unofficial march later, prompting crackdown by the police, resulting in about 300 people were detained. Opposition leaders said that a nationwide protest is planned for Saturday.
Col. Vasily Panchenkov, a representative of the forces of the Ministry of Interior, said that the troops were called up only in order to "guarantee the safety of citizens."
"Troops of the Ministry of the Interior may be deployed to protect public order and no more" - he said.
Witnesses said that those who saw mechanized columns, the most feared Dzerzhinsky division.
Clashes continued, while police are still holding two prominent opposition leaders who were detained during one of the biggest clashes with police on Monday night.
The ruling party Vladimir Putin United Russia won Sunday's election, but subsequent statements by international observers that the elections were rigged, led to mass protests.
Ludmila Alexeeva, one of the most famous activists for human rights in Russia, said she was very disturbed by the government's decision to deploy troops in the Russian capital.