Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[ag]

Who the hell are the conservatives, or socialists, or nationalists? Do you mean United Russia, Just Russia and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia? United Russia is not conservative, Just Russia is not socialist, and LDPR is no nationalist. UR and JR report to the same office in the Kremlin - give me a break about JR not being pro-Kremlin - its leaders wouldn't dare to fart in public if not explicitly authorized to do so. LDPR, of course, has been created somewhere around the Lubyanka Square and has always been loyal to its creators - at least, Zhirinovsky used to be funny some 20 years ago. And the Commies... well, yeah, the Commies are the Commies, reliably impotent despite everything (I guess, chemical castration is a prerequisite for being allowed on the party electoral slate).

[ag]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

[ag]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

It's from the #1 election projectionist in Canada in the last Federal election, who also got closer than anyone else in BC in 2009, who knows how to use polls to determine election results, especially when proportional representation is used.

Even if people vote both early and often?

I am pretty sure Canadian projectionists haven't had much of an experience with either Russian pollsters or Russian elections.

Though, truth be told, there is information contained in both the electoral results and the polls: it's not pure noise, they do (in a way) vote and they do (in a way) count. It's just that Canadian assumptions have to be modified when figuring out what it is.

[ag]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

I don't think you understand how Russian election works. They are fixed in Chechnya and other conflict areas of russia to vote 99% for UR, but in the rest of Russia they are about as fair as US elections, and reflect public opinion/polling pretty well. 7% threshold for representation is also a big barrier.

You, surely, remember the last Moscow City Duma election. Or is Moscow in Chechnya?

I think I understand how the Russian elections work pretty well, thank you. You have a point, though. They are about as fair as elections in the Deep South in the 1920s.

BTW, there isn't an embassy in Seattle - it's called a Consulate General. They opened it, if my memory serves me right, after the 1986 Goodwill Games in Moscow (recall those? yeah, I am an old geezer). Never voted there, but I did vote over the years in New York and DC - used to be fun, trust me.

PS. Oy, wey. I just realized you called the LDPR both "Liberals" and "opposition". I haven't laughed this much in a long time, thank you. Frankly, I think it is you who has to learn something about Russia, not me ))) 

[ag]

I AM an old geezer, actually. It seems only yesterday I watched that "Vremya" newscast where they reported on the First Congress of the Liberal Democratic Party of the Soviet Union and showed the world for the first time that Turkish-speaking ex-legal advisor for a Jewish cultural group that they've selected for the nazi-in-chief to fake multi-party politics. It was a hoot performance from the very first and he he has been a reliable stand-up act ever since.

[ag]

[
Small l liberal, as in their approach to economy.

They have an approach to economy? That, I am afraid, would be a news even to them ))  They reliably vote for whatever any Soviet government tells them to vote. Most other stand-up comedians have more of a political ideology then them.

How old were you when you left Russia?

[ag]

But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America.

What is the interest of the Russian voters?

It would make sense to ask them ))

[ag]

But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America.

What is the interest of the Russian voters?

It would make sense to ask them ))

That's what I'm doing Especially as he seems to know what the interests of other voters are.

He even seems to think they are being asked!

[ag]

Please tell me I'm not utterly wrong when I believe the LDPR to be nothing but an excuse for Putin to do as he pleases, because the West 'may not like us, but I guess they wouldn't like Zhirinovsky any better'.

That's, actually, secondary in importance. Mostly it is the way to securely stack votes of Russia's rednecks, who think they are voting against the government, while justifying existence of another reliably pro-government block in the Duma.

[ag]

Haven't you seen what happened to the URF? First they had it castrated to the point that the leaders wouldn't even nominate candidates for city councils without explicit permission from the Kremlin (not that these candidates would be elected). Then they raped them, and had them sell the party to a rich guy. Then they stole the party from that rich guy. It is not an opposition - it is not even a party. And, of course, even the castrated and raped leaders of old have now left this bloody remnant of a party completely - it has nothing to do w/ what this lable was about even a few months ago.

Yabloko is only margnially better off. It has decayed into non-existence.  It's dead. They dug it out of the grave this time once again to motivate some people, who otherwise would ignore the proceedings completely, to show up and vote. At least, they avoided the public castration, rape and robbery.

[ag]

The characterization in "russian terms" would be even less clear for western reader))) So i try to use their terminology...

There isn't such a thing as a "western reader". Nobody lives in the "West" - people live in US, UK, France, etc., etc.  The left-right spectrum is different in every country. On many issues what is considered "mainstream" in Russia would make hardcore KKK members in the US blush. On other issues, all Russians are (by the US standards) Communists.

[ag]

BTW, are the National-Bolsheviks running candidates? Is Limonov still in jail anyway?

Running candidates for what? For prison council representative? I doubt. They aren't a registered political party, they can't run candidates.

No, Limonov isn't in jail, AFAIK

[ag]

Few people go into details)))

Actually, here we do ))

[ag]

The "Other Russia" can no more run candidates in a Russian election than in Chinese. It's not a legal political party either.

[ag]

As for Limonov, yes, he is a great writer. His entire project is an artwork, a happening, a play, in which he himself plays Leon Trotsky - and should be evaluated from that standpoint alone.

[ag]

I argue russia is a multi-party democracy where parties have different ideologies ... that all are forced, legally and illegally, to bow to the Kremlin and not do anything controversial.

Well, Russia is NOT a democracy and most of its parties do not really have an ideology (w/ possible exception of the Commies).

[ag]

Remember too that Russia has 0 history of true liberal democracy. Even during the Yletisin era, there was very little time to get "used" to liberal democracy. Compare this to, for example, Poland, which had a very crudementary "democratic" form of governent for a very long time.


edit - I'd compare Russian democracy to Democracy in Tunisia prior to the Revolution.

1. The former means absolutely nothing. Everything happens for the first time sometime. Poland could have been described as a (very flawed) democracy, may be, for less than 10 years in the 20th century - and before that it had been under Russian control for over a 100 years. Do you really tell me that the 17th century experience of the shliachta republic in Rzeczpospolita is that determinative?

South Korea hasn't known democracy ever until fairly recently - does it imply anything whatsoever?


2. Tunisia wasn't a democracy before the revolution. Calling it a democracy means stripping the word "democracy" of its primary meaning.

[ag]

Bull. Look at India.

For that matter, most of Latin America now is fairly democratic. Even Venezuela is more of a democracy than Russia at this point.

[ag]

Bull. Look at India.

For that matter, most of Latin America now is fairly democratic.

More so than India. Indians are allowed to vote, but not on anything that impacts on their own life.

Unless you take this as a description of every democracy (a position that I'd find intellectually vacuous), I can't see how you can apply it to India - one of the most functional democracies out there in this world of ours.

[ag]

I am considering strolling to the embassy around closing time to see if they've voted me )

[ag]

First exit poll:

United Russia 48.5%
Communists 19.8%
Just Russia 12.8%
LDPR 11.4%
Yaboloko 4.2%
Just Cause 1.1%
Patriots of Russia 0.9%
spoilt ballots 1.3%

[ag]

First "official results" for a "state":

Chukotka (100% reporting)

UR 70.32%
LDPR 11.24%
Communists 6.7%
JR 4.79%
Yabloko 1.71%

[ag]

Kamchatka (70%+ reporting)

UR 46.64%
LDPR 18.41%
Commies 16.53
JR 10.02%
Yabloko 3.81%
Patriots of Russia 2.11%

[ag]

Any source for regional results?

Feed from gazeta.ru (in Russian), from their correspondent at the Electoral Commission.

[ag]

Mind it: most Russian sites that planned reporting have been down for most of the day: denial of service attacks. So has been the livejournal.com, which is Russia's main blogging site.