Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[minionofmidas]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

It's from the #1 election projectionist in Canada in the last Federal election, who also got closer than anyone else in BC in 2009, who knows how to use polls to determine election results, especially when proportional representation is used.

Could you provide a link to this projectionist's blog or whatever? I'd like to take a look at wherever you got that analysis from because it looks incredibly arbitrary and doesn't seem to make any sort of sense at all. Is it that ThreeHundredEight site or whatever it was called? (Though maybe not, IIRC he called the Canadian election last year pretty badly but I may be misremembering).

No. 308 was way off and this guy was right, but 308's readership increased

Comparing yourself to that site is setting the bar a wee bit low (and selling yourself too cheaply), perhaps?

And elections don't work the same everywhere. Being good in one country doesn't make you good in others. Canada being a particularly unique beast, as it happens.

[minionofmidas]

Well, as a person not only of Russian origin, but also residing in Moscow

Oh. Say hello to Moscow for me. It's been a while... I hear the Ismailovo has been torn down since.

[minionofmidas]

Remember too that Russia has 0 history of true liberal democracy. Even during the Yletisin era, there was very little time to get "used" to liberal democracy. Compare this to, for example, Poland, which had a very crudementary "democratic" form of governent for a very long time.


edit - I'd compare Russian democracy to Democracy in Tunisia prior to the Revolution.

Uh... that's a wee bit harsh to the Russians. Maybe substitute Libya.

[minionofmidas]

Bull. Look at India.

For that matter, most of Latin America now is fairly democratic.

More so than India. Indians are allowed to vote, but not on anything that impacts on their own life.

[minionofmidas]

Um... no. The elected institutions at anything below the state level (and you know how huge they are) are utterly powerless, the real power players being a byzantine web of career bureaucrats.
The police are so corrupt and so violent that their word is not admissible as evidence in court... which has turned out to not be a practicable solution either.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, right. Would maps be worth the trouble or not?

Non-negotiably necessary.

Oh yeah, Chukotka.

1989, population 164k. 108k Russians, 27k Ukrainians, 12k Chukchi
2002, population 54k. 28k Russians, 13k Chukchi, 5k Ukrainians

[minionofmidas]

Well, yeah, there is no reason for a Russian to live there - it's a hellhole. But whoever's left has been dealt w/ decently. Anadyr (the state capital) looks prettier than it ever had in its history.

Yeah, the population barely fell 2002-10. All the people who were there only because they had a job there and were banned from looking for another one left in the 90s. Which leads to a native reconquest of sorts which is cool.
Sakha has a similar phenomenon (and a native population explosion)

1989m 1,094mio. 550k Russians, 365k Yakuts, 77k Ukrainians, 14k Evenk
2002, population 949k. 432k Yakut, 391k Russians, 35k Ukrainians, 18k Evenk

Population has slightly risen since.

[minionofmidas]

map/results link

[minionofmidas]

UR doesn't have an ideology at all. Their only "ideology" - "we must stay in power. Indefinitely"

That, in a sense, is the primary underlying definition of "conservative".

[minionofmidas]

Green = I really can't explain this

Only area in the world to be still totally dominated demographically and politically by one of Siberia's Native peoples. Why should anyone outside be able to fully comprehend and explain the place?
Of course, remarkably isolated historically, Turkic-speaking, and Lamaist. And with a hilarious nominal independence period between the wars.

[minionofmidas]

I was asking why both ER and Yabloko were higher in Moscow proper than in the surroundings. Since the results in the city were altered to give a better ER result, why not also lower the Yabloko result?

Actually, to see what they did to Yabloko you may want to stare at this picture:

http://oude-rus.livejournal.com/540865.html

Data is by Moscow city precinct. The left plot is for UR, the right for Yabloko. On the horizontal axis is turnout, on the vertical axis party vote share. Russia still has too many statisticians ))

Pretty cool graph. Hilariously blatant.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDt9QzgfGGs&feature=player_embedded

For those who speak German and/or read Russian. Apparently went viral in Russia (and had the subtitles added there.) Kim Jong Il reference now outdated, of course.