Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[Хahar 🤔]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

I don't think you understand how Russian election works. They are fixed in Chechnya and other conflict areas of russia to vote 99% for UR, but in the rest of Russia they are about as fair as US elections, and reflect public opinion/polling pretty well. 7% threshold for representation is also a big barrier.

ag is Russian-born, so I think he understands.

[Хahar 🤔]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

It's from the #1 election projectionist in Canada in the last Federal election, who also got closer than anyone else in BC in 2009, who knows how to use polls to determine election results, especially when proportional representation is used.

These aren't elections, though.

[Хahar 🤔]

To what extent is the KPRF actually an opposition party?

[Хahar 🤔]

Map with gazeta.ru results (standard Atlas key):

[Хahar 🤔]

Notice, both St. Petersburg (city) and Moscow region (the province surrounding the city) have low 30s for UR, but in Moscow ostensibly it is in the 40s. Of course, the Moscow city exit poll gave UR under 30%. They were so afraid of the city that they had falsified it especially massively.

The SR total in Moscow city is also unusually low.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why did Yabloko do so well in Moscow city? It seems odd that it would be delivered to ER but then give a better result for the opposition than Moscow oblast.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why did Yabloko do so well in Moscow city? It seems odd that it would be delivered to ER but then give a better result for the opposition than Moscow oblast.

I don't quite get you. Yabloko is the last semi-surviving remnant of the 1990s democrats, and support for those in Moscow is non-negligible. As the Just Cause is now pretty much dead, all their votes get consolidated. In those precincts in Moscow where the vote count and reporting went decently they got fairly good results - they'd got much better ones, if most people weren't convinced the Yabloko vote would be wasted, as the party has never been given much of a chance of getting into the Duma. Still, a lot of people voted for them: they were the only party for whom you could vote without having to suppress nausea. 

I was asking why both ER and Yabloko were higher in Moscow proper than in the surroundings. Since the results in the city were altered to give a better ER result, why not also lower the Yabloko result?