Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[LastVoter]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_legislative_election,_2011
I could even vote in those, since there is an embassy in Seattle. I think that Putin's party will lose some seats. If I am going to vote I would probably vote for the coalition party of social-democrats that got 7% last election, which is the threshold required for obtaining seats. I think Communists would be a better strategic vote since they would definitely get 7%, but the history and their view on is disturbing. The other opposition party, Liberals is for unrestricted capitalism and xenophobia, so they are even worse than the status quo.

[LastVoter]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

I don't think you understand how Russian election works. They are fixed in Chechnya and other conflict areas of russia to vote 99% for UR, but in the rest of Russia they are about as fair as US elections, and reflect public opinion/polling pretty well. 7% threshold for representation is also a big barrier.

[LastVoter]

I use simple terms to help people unfamiliar with the situation understand

And your calculations are based on what? Did you hack the Izbirkom server and got the planned results straight from chairman Churov's desktop, or is it from the office of comrade Surkov in the presidential administration?

I don't think you understand how Russian election works. They are fixed in Chechnya and other conflict areas of russia to vote 99% for UR, but in the rest of Russia they are about as fair as US elections, and reflect public opinion/polling pretty well. 7% threshold for representation is also a big barrier.

You, surely, remember the last Moscow City Duma election. Or is Moscow in Chechnya?

I think I understand how the Russian elections work pretty well, thank you. You have a point, though. They are about as fair as elections in the Deep South in the 1920s.

BTW, there isn't an embassy in Seattle - it's called a Consulate General. They opened it, if my memory serves me right, after the 1986 Goodwill Games in Moscow (recall those? yeah, I am an old geezer). Never voted there, but I did vote over the years in New York and DC - used to be fun, trust me.

PS. Oy, wey. I just realized you called the LDPR both "Liberals" and "opposition". I haven't laughed this much in a long time, thank you. Frankly, I think it is you who has to learn something about Russia, not me ))) 

Small l liberal, as in their approach to economy. I am thinking something like Ron Paul with xenophobia/nationalism as their social stance.  The proper way to describe them on American political scale would be very conservative.  Opposition is a wrong term obviously, but it's a different party from United Russia. But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America. I think the broken pro-status quo media is the problem.

[LastVoter]

[
Small l liberal, as in their approach to economy.

They have an approach to economy? That, I am afraid, would be a news even to them ))  They reliably vote for whatever any Soviet government tells them to vote. Most other stand-up comedians have more of a political ideology then them.

How old were you when you left Russia?

11

But I don't think rigging the elections makes that much of a difference, the Russian electorate votes against their interests even more than poor white male southerners do in America.

What is the interest of the Russian voters?

It would make sense to ask them ))

That's what I'm doing Especially as he seems to know what the interests of other voters are.

He even seems to think they are being asked!

You don't have to ask them. Read my analogy carefully. Or do you trhink UR and their dictator is most capable of leading Russia?

[LastVoter]

Well, as a person not only of Russian origin, but also residing in Moscow and having right to vote in russian elections i will try to add something new, though i agree with many things already said..

1. "United Russia" will win, and win big. There may be doubts whether it will have a "constitutional majority" (2/3) in Duma, but even if not - there will be enough "switches" from other parties (Communists, "Liberal Democrats" (this party is neither liberal, nor democratic), or, may be, "Just Russia", if it will get over 7%) to give it this majority. The main reason - is a "quality" (in fact - lack of quality) of opposition:  communists in Russia are (contrary to their Western counterparts) mostly of "unreconstructed" type , still dreaming about "great socialist/communist superstate", "Liberal Democrats" are very authocratic party of V. Zhirinovski, and, generally, a pet project of "Gorbachev's reconstructed KGB" of late 80th - early 90th (as far as it's leader is concerned - you may take Huey Long, add Edwin Edwards and David Duke according to your preferences, and you will get good "approximation" of him..), "Just Russia" is another Kremlin's project, which is similar to european socialists with some "green " tinge, and other - well, "Yabloko" ("Apple" in English) is, essentially, social-democratic party, popular during late years of Gorbachev's "Perestroika" (again - late 80th - early 90th), but - much less now and unlikely to get more then 2-3% of vote, "Right Cause" -  another Kremlin's project - an attempt to create a "manageable" (a key word here), party with seemingly european "democratic" slogans and ideas, which made a laughinstock of itself during recent internal power squabble, and will not get more then 2% as well, and "Patrions of Russia" is a splinter group from communists, which is composed of people, who turned to be more "ultrapatriotic" then communist, and is also unable to get more then 2% nationwide


2. All other parties and groups in Russia are not officially registered by Justice Department and thus have no rights to participate in this elections. An option (which became very popular in late 90th - early 2000th) "Against all", which became to serve as a possibility for voter to express it's dissatisfaction with "powers that be" and with so called "opposition"as well, was also conveniently (for authorities) eliminated, and does not exist anymore (it became to get more votes then any political party and candidate, so - no surprises here)

3. All central (and most local) mass media is controlled either by Kremlin or local authorities (usually "United Russia" members and/or leaders), so there is no "equal chances" for other parties to get their message heard. At the same time mr. Putin or mr. Medvedev may speak freely on national TV even 12 hours every day if he likes.. The same generally true about other high-ranking officials of "United Russia"

4. The level of election falsification is not high in relatively more "politically advanced" big cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg (and it's there, where "United Russia" may suffer at least some losses), but very high in remote provinces and rural areas. So, it's not a problem for "United Russia" operatives "to get some required votes"

5. As seen from everything described above - russian politics is extremely skewed (even compared to Europe, even more so - with US) left. The parties like "Right Cause" would, ideologically, correspond to something like moderately liberal Democrats in US, but in Russia it's an "extreme right"...  I, myself, consider my views "slightly left of center" by American standards, but by russian standards i am an "extreme rightist"))) There is almost no "civilized right" in Russia.... At all...

I wouldn't say so. There are still many publicly owned industries, but they aren't very supported. The income tax is only 13%. Considering that russia is in it's own little dreamed up world politically makes it hard to point it down where it is. I think social issues would be a little easier, and it still doesn't give a clear picture, abortion is legal and unchallenged, but gays are hated by most of the population. No death penalty, but a prison system that imprisons almost as many people per capita as the US. Trying to describe Russian politics in Western terms will eventually lead you to contradicting yourself eventually.

[LastVoter]

What I am having problems understanding is "If this election was rigged (as some people have suggested) why did United Russia rig it to lose their overall majority?"

It is rigged, but only partially. The real results are underneath the reporting in most places, they just added some percentage points to the tally of the ruling party. Rigging was highly variable. In places like Chechnya the results are simply fake. In Moscow the vote share of UR is about 15 to 20 percentage points above what it should have been. On the other hand, it looks like faking was only minor in the surrounding region. I guess, the new Moscow mayor needed to prove he can "do his job." In the end, it got them majority in the Duma, but not of the popular vote.

To sum up, the reason they didnt' get a majority is only because their faking ability was not unlimited and their "true" vote share did fall dramatically. But the evidence of faking is overwhelming.

So I am guessing this election was a lot more rigged than the last? I am also wondering why is there no opinion polls showing UR getting less than 45% (at least on the wiki page). Do the Russian opinion polls attempt to predict the rigging of the election by UR too?
edit: the russian wiki shows about 40%(48.5, 46 and 38.1) support for UR in polls. So they rigged it by about 10% towards UR.

[LastVoter]

It wasn't more rigged than the 2007, though it was definitely more rigged than 2003. It's just that in 2007 they, probably, would have won anyway, rigging or no rigging - rigging was the matter of some people having bad taste. This time it is, actually, more material. Also, this time a lot of rigging happened in Moscow, where it is more visible (the new mayor was trying to show he is a reliable vote getter).

And yes, there seems to be evidence most polls are overstating popularity of UR (either because they are not independent, or because they try to predict the "official" numbers).

I am guessing the poll with 38.6% is probably pretty close to the actual results.

[LastVoter]

My understanding of the map:


Purple = Seem to be a local thing, probably (a) popular local official(s) friendly to Putin.
Green = I really can't explain this
Red = This is the one that I notice first, most strikingly, and, I can indeed explain. If you check the history of the Soviet Union you will see that this is the area that was most pro-communist. Being aware of Russian culture, I have my doubts that this, in the long-run, was due to any kind of left-wing base, at least, left as we know it. This area seems to be the part of Russia that truly appreciates "strong" leadership. IE my read is that they know Putin is a dictator, and, love him for it. Contrast this with the northern area of European Russia. Many of Putin's former Power bases (like Vladivostok, dangling off the bottom of the east) have been lost, but this remains. I expect that this would be the area that would swing to any new dictator should Putin get canned.

The red area is where the pork goes and the ethnical minorities reside in Russia.

[LastVoter]

http://esquire.ru/elections
Interesting read(Russian0

[LastVoter]

seems at least 25,000 RSVP'd on facebook to protest the elections on Saturday.