My 2012 Senate predictions: GOP +6

[Ogre Mage]

This would be close to a realistic best case scenario for the GOP in 2008.  In a best case scenario I could see them getting a net gain of +7.

At this point, I would say a best case scenario for the Democrats would be a net loss of only one seat.

If Brown in OH is in the tossup category in spite of his lead in the polls, then I would argue that Brown in MA should be as well.

[Ogre Mage]

This would be close to a realistic best case scenario for the GOP in 2008.  In a best case scenario I could see them getting a net gain of +7.

At this point, I would say a best case scenario for the Democrats would be a net loss of only one seat.

If Brown in OH is in the tossup category in spite of his lead in the polls, then I would argue that Brown in MA should be as well.

There is the potential for double digit gains you know with the 2012 landscape.

There also is the "potential" that the Democrats could actually net gain seats.  That does not mean it is realistic.  We heard this GOP happy talk before in 2010 about a double digit Senate pickup.  It turned out to be overblown. 

[Ogre Mage]

Would either krazen1211 or BigSkyBob like to place a bet that that GOP will net gain 10 or more Senate seats? (57+ GOP Senators in the next Congress)  Because I will wager that will not happen.

[Ogre Mage]

This would be close to a realistic best case scenario for the GOP in 2008.  In a best case scenario I could see them getting a net gain of +7.

At this point, I would say a best case scenario for the Democrats would be a net loss of only one seat.

If Brown in OH is in the tossup category in spite of his lead in the polls, then I would argue that Brown in MA should be as well.

There is the potential for double digit gains you know with the 2012 landscape.

There also is the "potential" that the Democrats could actually net gain seats.  That does not mean it is realistic.  We heard this GOP happy talk before in 2010 about a double digit Senate pickup.  It turned out to be overblown. 

At this time in the cycle? The GOP thought Pat Toomey was a sure loser.

Charlie Cook agrees with my assessment:

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http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/gop-senate-supermajority-fuggedaboutit-says-charlie-cook-20111101

[Ogre Mage]

This is what I see the map looking like on election day:

This map is a realistic best-case scenario for the Democrats.  It is plausible, but all the dominoes would have to fall our way for it to happen.