My 2012 Senate predictions: GOP +6

[Miles]

I'd add OH and FL to the list of perspective pickups, as even though Brown and Nelson are ahead for now they are going to most likely face a well funded and appealing GOP opponent.

The GOP Primary in Florida is already starting to get nasty between Hasner and LeMieux; the Republican nominee could come out as less "appealing" in the general election.

[Miles]

If Mandel continues closing the gap at his current rate, he'll be tied with Brown by January.

Eh, I'm not sure if I'd jump to that conclusion; I really doubt Mandel will gain 7 points every time PPP polls OH until January....I do agree that the race will tighten though.

Even though Mandel made headway, Brown still held steady at 48%.

[Miles]

Would either krazen1211 or BigSkyBob like to place a bet that that GOP will net gain 10 or more Senate seats? (57+ GOP Senators in the next Congress)  Because I will wager that will not happen.

I don't have a prediction for 2012, yet. 2012 will probably be a trend year, and an anti-incumbent year. Right now, it could be anywhere between 45-60 seats, probably skewed to the upper end.

I'm gonna hold ya to that!

[Miles]

I think that, if the climate is good enough, the Democrats can actually gain seats.

Hahahahahahahaha!!

Not that 100% agree with Snowstalker, but it is somewhat possible. They'd have to hold all their seats, except Nebraska and North Dakota, in addition to knocking off Heller, Brown and then possibly Hatch with Matheson or Indiana if Lugar loses the primary. That would be a net gain of 1.

[Miles]

This is what I see the map looking like on election day:

This map is a realistic best-case scenario for the Democrats.  It is plausible, but all the dominoes would have to fall our way for it to happen.

I agree. With the exception of Indiana  (Lugar losing the primary and Donnelly winning), I think this would  be the best-case Democratic map.

[Miles]

Update: Moving Florida from Likely D to Tossup due to Mack's entry.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/11/2497096/mack-attack-poll-shows-rep-mack.html

I'll probably move FL from Lean D to Slight D on my next map. I won't have it as a Tossup unless I see another poll with Mack within 3 points of Nelson.