My 2012 Senate predictions: GOP +6

[RogueBeaver]

Democrats:
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Maine
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia


Republicans:
Arizona
Indiana
Maine
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
Nevada
North Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Wyoming



Republican pick-ups:
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Virginia
Wisconsin

Tossup:

Ohio
Florida


Contested Primaries:

AZ: Jeff Flake (R), Terry Goddard (D)
CT: Chris Murphy (D), Linda McMahon (R)
FL: Connie Mack (R)
HI: Mazie Hirono (D), Linda Lingle (R)
IN: Richard Lugar (R)
MI: Pete Hoekstra (R)
MO: Sarah Steelman (R)
NM: Martin Heinrich (D), Heather Wilson (R)
TX: Ted Cruz (R)
WI: Tommy Thompson (R)

[RogueBeaver]

If Mandel continues closing the gap at his current rate, he'll be tied with Brown by January. So I'd reclassify OH as "Tossup." As for Florida, the Greer trial will render LeMieux radioactive (and he already has base problems) and Hasner's dead in the water for now. I'd still put that Likely D in the interim.

[RogueBeaver]

If Mandel continues closing the gap at his current rate, he'll be tied with Brown by January.

Eh, I'm not sure if I'd jump to that conclusion; I really doubt Mandel will gain 7 points every time PPP polls OH until January....I do agree that the race will tighten though.

Even though Mandel made headway, Brown still held steady at 48%.

Not 7 points, but 2-3 points shouldn't be difficult. Just consolidating the GOP vote (only has 78% right now) should do that.

[RogueBeaver]

Update: Moving Florida from Likely D to Tossup due to Mack's entry.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/11/2497096/mack-attack-poll-shows-rep-mack.html

[RogueBeaver]

Nil in Maine and less than 25% in Indiana.

[RogueBeaver]

Update: MA moves to Slight R, OH and FL move to Lean D.

[RogueBeaver]

MA: Slight R --> Tossup

OH: Lean D --> Likely D

FL: Lean D --> Tossup