My 2012 Senate predictions: GOP +6

[BigSkyBob]

This would be close to a realistic best case scenario for the GOP in 2008.  In a best case scenario I could see them getting a net gain of +7.

At this point, I would say a best case scenario for the Democrats would be a net loss of only one seat.

If Brown in OH is in the tossup category in spite of his lead in the polls, then I would argue that Brown in MA should be as well.

There is the potential for double digit gains you know with the 2012 landscape.

There also is the "potential" that the Democrats could actually net gain seats.  That does not mean it is realistic.  We heard this GOP happy talk before in 2010 about a double digit Senate pickup.  It turned out to be overblown. 

And, the GOP happy talk about the House of Representatives turned out to be correct, and, they outperformed their own expectations for state legislative races.

[BigSkyBob]

Would either krazen1211 or BigSkyBob like to place a bet that that GOP will net gain 10 or more Senate seats? (57+ GOP Senators in the next Congress)  Because I will wager that will not happen.

I don't have a prediction for 2012, yet. 2012 will probably be a trend year, and an anti-incumbent year. Right now, it could be anywhere between 45-60 seats, probably skewed to the upper end.

[BigSkyBob]

Charlie Cook needs to write a column saying that the GOP won't pick up 13 Senate seats? Really. Really, Charlie? You don't think the GOP will go +13? Really?

Next week's article: House Republicans unlikely to win 2/3 majority.

That would be the "spin" if the Republicans were approaching 60.