Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Smid]

May I use this as a base for creating my own map?

I am more than happy for you to use any of my base maps. That's why I upload them. I consider it a sincere compliment for someone to use them.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

As I told earl: anytime that you can make me a map, and alls I need to do is put the numbers on it, I am happy!

[Hatman 🍁]

OK, I admit I ROFLed there.

On another note, a 3-way race is shaping up. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can try a projection for us?

http://www2.canada.com/story.html?id=5998836

I trust Volkov:
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/quebec-la-post-2011-and-equipe.html

who also has an Alberta projection FTR
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/alberta-in-2012.html

and not only uses his successful system but mine from my old Riding by Riding website
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
which was the most successful of the last federal election (and the last BC election too)

I see that he's stolen my idea by using maps. The ironic thing is, that he is using my Wikipedia base maps (that I made) that I have abandoned for my site.  By the way, did he do provincial predictions in the Fall? I want to compare with him, to see if my claim as the best predicting site holds any water.

[Smid]

OK, I admit I ROFLed there.

On another note, a 3-way race is shaping up. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can try a projection for us?

http://www2.canada.com/story.html?id=5998836

I trust Volkov:
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/quebec-la-post-2011-and-equipe.html

who also has an Alberta projection FTR
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/alberta-in-2012.html

and not only uses his successful system but mine from my old Riding by Riding website
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
which was the most successful of the last federal election (and the last BC election too)

I see that he's stolen my idea by using maps. The ironic thing is, that he is using my Wikipedia base maps (that I made) that I have abandoned for my site.  By the way, did he do provincial predictions in the Fall? I want to compare with him, to see if my claim as the best predicting site holds any water.

He's updated your Alberta one, however, to reflect the redistribution (note Fort Mac split into two ridings and the top of Calgary is stepped, rather than flat. Airdrie is also a useful point of reference between the pre-redistribution and post-redistribution maps, and the part of it that's been excised and added to Foothills, to create that inverted U-shaped riding around the Eastern, Northern and Western sides of Calgary). Anyway, I find that those are the most immediately obvious changes following the redistribution, which are easiest to spot when trying to identify whether the map is recent or dated.

He still seems to be using the old Quebec map, however (obvious points of difference between pre- and post-redistribution, I find, are in the South-Eastern border where Quebec borders Maine. Megantic doesn't reach the East-West US-Canadian border now, whereas the old Megantic-Compton did, Shefford was elongated/rectangular, whereas the new Granby is more square-ish... well, not perfectly, but you get the idea, St Francois is no longer a thing North-South oriented riding, but now an odd-shaped one with a nobbly bit on top and occupies the entire Eastern end of the East-West border with the US, the somewhat T-Shaped (or sideways V-Shaped?) Arthabaska is bigger, and the small angled L-shaped Drummond is gone, split between other ridings). Anyway, those are again the ridings that I think are most obvious in demonstrating the change between pre- and post-redistribution. The Southern ridings below Montreal have also changed, and you could also try counting the number of ridings on Laval, but I think the most obvious difference is Shefford/Granby and whether St Francois or Megantic occupies the end of the East-West US-Canada border.

Here is the old map again, as a point of reference:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2482_14_11_11_5_40_37.png (not posting it as an image, just as a link, since it would otherwise clutter up the thread).

The old and new Alberta maps are after one another in that thread, so I won't post those comparisons here.

Edit: Oh, and in addition to the top of Calgary being stepped, look also for the odd-shaped sprout off Calgary Northwest, heading up to encompass Bear Paw. The old Calgary boundaries were quite smooth, like a rectangle with a rectangular chunk cut out of it in the western side, or a bit like a very digital "g" whereas the new boundaries of the City of Calgary are a bit harder to describe.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Just to note in case anyone has wandered into the thread, Earl's venom towards Volkov is on the grounds that he is a member of the Liberal Party.

And FTR; his Ontario projection
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/quick-ontario-election-post-mortem.html
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-2011-full-predictions.html
and mine
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/teddys-election-projection-for-ontario.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent. I still did far better than him. I should've known; partisan Liberals really overemphasized how well their party was going to fair.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

He's partisan?

[RogueBeaver]

More debates on sovereignty.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340361/souverainete-debats-houleux-en-vue-sur-les-alliances

Beaudoin's crocodile tears.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340290/la-derive-du-pq-attriste-aussi-louise-beaudoin

[Hash]

Excellent. I still did far better than him. I should've known; partisan Liberals really overemphasized how well their party was going to fair.

Yeah, I predicted a PC minority until like the last 24 hours. I really overestimated our strength.

[MaxQue]

About the earlier poll (CAQ 33, Libs 27, PQ 25), I saw crosstables in a newspapers.

CAQ has a ample lead in Quebec with PQ under 20, Montreal is tight with Libs first, CAQ second and PQ third and rest of Quebec has CAQ leading PQ by 2, with Libs way behind.

[RogueBeaver]

2007 all over again?

[MaxQue]

Looks like so.

Taking the 2007 map is probably a good start for predictions.

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent. I still did far better than him. I should've known; partisan Liberals really overemphasized how well their party was going to fair.

Yeah, I predicted a PC minority until like the last 24 hours. I really overestimated our strength.

You're... different....; you're like me and down play your party's strengths.

He's partisan?

Sarcasm?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/politics/story/2012/01/18/quebec-provinical-conservative-party.html

New Party!

No, not the other new party... or the other other new party..... a new new party!!


My prediction for the next election, after the ADQ rejects the merger, and vote splitting allows the greens to win seats is:

PLQ 19
PQ 18
ADQ 17
QS 16
CAQ 15
CON 14
ON 13
GRN 12
Plus a random Independent, who will end up becoming Premier in a coalition of the QS, PQ, PLQ, and CON.

[lilTommy]

I just read that articule! ok Quebec is just becoming rediculous... i'm, going to move in with my sister and start my own party now

... i still think there is some, some serious chatter from some in the NDP about setting up a NPDQ... which would mean 9 parties... Quebec really is looking like europe now, very dutch looking.
I know this scenario seems rediculous; no party with more than 20seats, and most not won by more than 20% either... but could spell the end to FPTP in Quebec.
... i would be very excited to see QS and the Greens with over 10 seats

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If the NDP is getting a provincial party too, there might be movements to a non-partisan party of some sort, and given this, we could well see the equality party try to make a comeback. Hell at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of movement to regrow the old Social Credit party, and with vote splitting, they could well easily win seats.

Remember too that Quebec is quite Catholic, and there have been movements for a Catholic party in the past. Given the options, I could even see a revival of student politics and a sort of youth or Student party.

PLQ 9
PQ 9
ADQ 9
QS 9
CAQ 9
CON 9
ON 9
GRN 9
NDP 9
NP 9
EQ 9
SC 9
CAT 9
STU 8

I also forsee a tie in Sherbrooke, and thus only Half of Jean Charest would be elected. Which half would be divisive, but I think that somehow they'd come to an agreement.

[RogueBeaver]

They won't have enough time to get organized, unlike their BC cousins. In the short run, total clusterfark. Medium-term you probably see more PQ than Liberal wins because of vote-splitting.

One thing's for certain: if Legault leaves after one term, then the CAQ will merge with the PCQ. A unified right-wing party would look like the ADQ (or Daniel Johnson's Unionists): moderately nationalist on The Issue and with very few non-Francophone supporters.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Hum.

So the CAQADQPCQ would be so close the PLQ that they could merge into the CAQADQPCQPLQ which could re-arrange the letter's in it's name to be the CACAPPDLQQQQ, or poo-kew for short.

[RogueBeaver]

PLQ has always been centre-to-centre-left except for Charest's first year. Plus the intraparty nationalist/federalist balance would be tilted overwhelmingly in the nationalists' favour.

[MaxQue]

PLQ has always been centre-to-centre-left except for Charest's first year.

Well, no.

PLQ was right-wing during the first year of Charest, a puppet of their funders (so more or less right-wing, as it is favoring rich people over poor people) for the other years.

[MaxQue]

According to news, Duceppe is openly interested to PQ leadership, now.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Anyway, enough jokes from me.

I think Duceppe could do very well if he gets the PQ leadership.

[RogueBeaver]

According to news, Duceppe is openly interested to PQ leadership, now.

He won't pull the trigger himself, still too gun-shy after what happened 5 years ago. But if he did, then the PQ has at least a 50-50 shot of winning.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/17/01-4486864-leadership-du-pq-duceppe-teste-ses-appuis.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1

[Hash]

There was a PCQ in the 1980s which, if I recall, had a few 'big names' but still did awfully. Besides, none of the fools in this new PCQ thingee are actually that well-known or relevant. Maybe if you could convince The Retard from Beauce to jump in, but short of something like that the PCQ won't go anywhere.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed with Hashemite on the PCQ.