Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Peter the Lefty]

New forum research poll:
PQ-35%
PLQ-35%
CAQ-16%
QS-8%
PVQ-5%

It still projects a 6-seat PQ majority due to parties' geographic distribution of support, etc.  (PQ 66, PLQ 50, CAQ 7, QS 2).

[Marokai Backbeat]

PLQ supporters are certainly stubborn as hell, aren't they?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PLQ supporters are certainly stubborn as hell, aren't they?

Well, they tend to think that the other parties are (basically) the devil, so there you are.

[lilTommy]

PLQ supporters are certainly stubborn as hell, aren't they?

Well, they tend to think that the other parties are (basically) the devil, so there you are.

Who are hardcore, montreal english federalist suppost to vote for? and Charest could come out as the devil-in-carnet and he would still win seats on the west island.

This is why i STILL want a NPDQ but i digress that a whole other argument.

I support the students too, they are expected to make a counter offer... i think Charest boxed himself in on this issue.... frankly the rest of Canada is wrong. I would like to see people start talking about new funding ideas like graduate taxes.
Today will not be a good day for Charest.. its May Day... students will be joined by unionists and otehr anti-capitalists... he just can't get a break eh

[lilTommy]

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Charest+expected+call+election+just+riding/6542677/story.html

no general election this summer but a by-election

[Hatman 🍁]

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Charest+expected+call+election+just+riding/6542677/story.html

no general election this summer but a by-election

Finally. What's the hold up? It's a (semi) safe Liberal seat.

[mileslunn]

As for the PLQ doing as well as they are, lets remember Allophones and Anglophones make up close to 20% of the population and they usually vote PLQ pretty heavily as they are the only party that doesn't come across as hostile to them.  In addition, there will always be some Francophones who will vote for them too, although I doubt Charest is doing too well amongst them.  Never mind some still haven't forgotten Parizeau's money and ethnic vote comment from 1995, so I suspect many of them aren't going to ever go PQ.  After all, fair or not fair, this gave a strong impression the PQ is a party only for the Pur Laine.

[RogueBeaver]

The minority vote is what keeps the PLQ alive- their share of the Francophone vote is rather small but highly concentrated. That's why they're still competitive.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest caved. Pathetic, but then again he's been doing that since those strikes 8-9 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Simard is retiring.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/06/27/004-parti-quebecois-demissions.shtml

[Poirot]

La Presse newspaper reports Charest would like to start the campaign August 1st for a vote on September 4th (a Tuesday after Labour Day).

A campaign during summer? I hope politicians don't complain if people are cynical about politics or if the voter turnout is low.

The article says Clément Gignac is changing riding and will run in Québec City, possibly in Taschereau against PQ Agnès Maltais. On the new electoral map the riding is less PQ. Transposed result show it would have been 12,783 PQ votes to 11,188 PLQ 

[Hatman 🍁]

That would be terrible ... as I am going on vacation in early August and would miss some critical blogging time

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the article. MacMillan is also retiring, but the Liberals have found a candidate to replace him in Papineau.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/10/01-4542539-elections-aux-urnes-le-4-septembre.php

[RogueBeaver]

Fun fact: 1994 was the last September election we had. It was also the last time a majority Liberal government went down in flames.

[RogueBeaver]

McMillan confirms his retirement.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/11/01-4542703-plq-norm-macmillan-confirme-son-depart.php

Chantal Hebert's take on possible scenarios.

http://www.lactualite.com/politique/chantal-hebert/archive/predictions-estivales-le-quebec-en-mode-electoral?page=0,1

[Poirot]

I have trouble deciding which of the 5 scenarios will happen. I feel anything can happen.

In case some didn't know about the 2008 election results according to the 2012 ridings, you can find them at this location. It is a pdf, maybe it exists in other format and since I can't post links you have to add the www before

electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

I have trouble deciding which of the 5 scenarios will happen. I feel anything can happen.

In case some didn't know about the 2008 election results according to the 2012 ridings, you can find them at this location. It is a pdf, maybe it exists in other format and since I can't post links you have to add the www before

electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

Looks more like a minority at this stage but anything can happen.

[Smid]

I have trouble deciding which of the 5 scenarios will happen. I feel anything can happen.

In case some didn't know about the 2008 election results according to the 2012 ridings, you can find them at this location. It is a pdf, maybe it exists in other format and since I can't post links you have to add the www before

www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

Oh, that is awesome! Good job tracking that down! I had started to do some of the sums for that a few months back, but then switched my focus to Alberta (you can see a few pages back in this thread). This is great! I'll convert these to maps!

[CalgaryManifesto]

By the sounds of it, Charest is hoping for the lower turnout. I wouldn't be surprised to see the CAQ pick up a few seats, just due to the motivation factor.

How are the student strikes playing with mainstream Quebecers by the way? I'd guess not well, but I've never been able to understand Quebec poltiics

[MaxQue]

By the sounds of it, Charest is hoping for the lower turnout. I wouldn't be surprised to see the CAQ pick up a few seats, just due to the motivation factor.

How are the student strikes playing with mainstream Quebecers by the way? I'd guess not well, but I've never been able to understand Quebec poltiics

Roughly, one half agrees and one half disagrees. Neither side has a real advantage in the opinion.

[Smid]

Notional 2008 Quebec Election Results, according to this PDF.

2008 Quebec Notional Election Results

[RogueBeaver]

Some close ridings to watch.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/12/01-4542900-elections-tout-peut-arriver.php

Student protesters gear up.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/conflit-etudiant/201207/11/01-4542883-apres-la-greve-les-elections.php

[RogueBeaver]

They stuck with him in '93, they'll stick with him now.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1226136--hebert-sherbrooke-will-be-ground-zero-in-charest-s-battle-to-remain-quebec-premier

[You kip if you want to...]

Can anyone give me a summary of the Quebecois parties?

[RogueBeaver]

Can anyone give me a summary of the Quebecois parties?

Liberal: Centre-something, the "something" depends on your ideological perception. Firmly federalist.

PQ: Social democratic/progressive/centre-left depending on who you talk to, sovereigntist.

CAQ: Centre-right. They claim to be agnostic on the national question but in practice agnosticism means tacitly federalist.

QS: A more left-wing, hardcore sovereigntist breakaway from the PQ.