Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Vosem]

No mention of today's Crop poll?

PQ 33%
CAQ 28%
PLQ 26%
QS 7%
ON 3%
PVQ 2%

Yes, I read about that. This PLQ-supporting allophone is disappointed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why on earth would anyone from outside Quebec support the PLQ right now?

[後援会]

Why on earth would anyone from outside Quebec support the PLQ right now?

Because they're not the PQ. And if Satan himself was running against the PQ, I'd cheer for him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why on earth would anyone from outside Quebec support the PLQ right now?

Because they're not the PQ. And if Satan himself was running against the PQ, I'd cheer for him.

Neither are the CAQ. I could understand leeriness regarding them from actual hardcore PLQ voters because they would be in a situation in which they would have to live with the outcome of the election; which is not something to be worried about when supporting something remotely.

[Hash]

Why on earth would anyone from outside Quebec support the PLQ right now?

A special affection for the Italian mafia?

[後援会]

Why on earth would anyone from outside Quebec support the PLQ right now?

Because they're not the PQ. And if Satan himself was running against the PQ, I'd cheer for him.

Neither are the CAQ. I could understand leeriness regarding them from actual hardcore PLQ voters because they would be in a situation in which they would have to live with the outcome of the election; which is not something to be worried about when supporting something remotely.

Haven't most of the PLQ supporters talked about tactical voting? If the CAQ's closet to the PQ in their ridings, they vote CAQ. If the PLQ is the closest, they vote PLQ.

[RogueBeaver]

TV doesn't work. Not unless the elevator cable snaps like the PLC last year. What's happening here is slow and steady. Polls haven't moved much outside the MOE for anyone since the campaign started.

Charest is so desperate for Francophone votes he pulled a leaf out of the NDP/BQ playbook and asked for the language laws to be extended federally but then flip-flopped in the space of 24 hours. Says it all, really. Marois is now the presumptive premier, 8 days from now she'll be premier-designate.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/28/01-4568953-loi-101-dans-les-entreprises-federales-charest-recule.php

[MaxQue]

Charest is so desperate for Francophone votes he pulled a leaf out of the NDP/BQ playbook and asked for the language laws to be extended federally but then flip-flopped in the space of 24 hours.

No, he took a page of the CAQ/ADQ book. Flip-floping all the time.

[MaxQue]

http://www.segmarecherche.ca/Sondages.html

They are the one who did Sherbrooke and Granby.
They apparently polled the 5 Sagnenay-Lac-Saint-Jean ridings.

So, since they contain all the results for all parties:

Sherbrooke:
PQ 46, PLQ-Charest 31, CAQ 11, QS 6, ON 2, Green 2

Granby:
CAQ-incumbent 49, PQ 24, PLQ 16, QS 7, Green 3, ON 1

Lac-Saint-Jean:
PQ-incumbent 59, CAQ 18, PLQ 17, QS 3, Green 1, ON 1

Chicoutimi:
PQ-incumbent 53, PLQ 21, CAQ 19, QS 5, ON 1

Dubuc:
PQ 44, PLQ-incumbent 32, CAQ 18, QS 4, ON 1

Roberval:
PQ-incumbent 53, PLQ 26, CAQ 14, QS 5

Jonquière:
PQ-incumbent 51, PLQ 20, CAQ 17, QS 6, Green 2, ON 1

Segma did 8 polls since then

Sherbrooke, again:
PQ 45 (-1), PLQ-Charest 33 (+2), CAQ 10 (-1), QS 7 (+1), ON 3 (+1), Green 2

Trois-Rivières (riding of the PQ candidate Djamilla Benhabib, which got in a fight with the hyper-catholic and outdated mayor of Saguenay, Jean Tremblay)
PQ 36, PLQ(incumbent) 30, CAQ 18, QS 8, ON 4, Others 4

Saint-Maurice (PQ held seat, incumbent retiring)
PQ 42, PLQ 26, CAQ 22, QS 5, ON 2, Bertrand 2
We also learn than the federal MP, Lise St-Denis, the NDP to Liberal turncoat has 22-57 approvals.

Lévis
CAQ 41 (Legault said than he will be appointed Finance minister), PLQ 27 (incumbent), PQ 18, QS 10, ON 2, Other 2

Louis-Hébert
PLQ 35 (incumbent, minister), CAQ 30, PQ 26, QS 5, ON 2, Others 2

Hull
PLQ 39, PQ 30, QS 14 (the victim of the Shawinigan handshake), CAQ 12, ON 3, Greens 1, Others 1

Papineau (liberal seat since decades, in Outaouais, incumbent retiring)
PQ 36, PLQ 27, CAQ 20, QS 11, ON 3, Others 3
Hard to believe.

Taschereau (Quebec downtown)
PQ 41 (incumbent), PLQ 19 (minister for economical development, currently MNA in Montreal), QS 16, CAQ 16, ON 7, Others 1

[Holmes]

I don't know why the PQ winning in Papineau is actually welcome news to me...

[後援会]

Good ol' PQ and other pure laine types. Reminding me everyday why despite how Montreal is probably the closest major city to me, I will probably never visit it.

Why would you never visit somewhere because of politics? Shallow.

It's not just the politics. The politics is just a symptom of the disease. The disease of pure laine bigotry, from what I've heard from family friends who have had to live in Quebec, that just makes me think Quebec is by and large not a very welcoming place.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't know why the PQ winning in Papineau is actually welcome news to me...

It's not Trudeau's riding. Papineau provincially is not the same as Papineau federally which is in Montreal. Papineau provincially is the Papineau MRC which is in the Outaouais.

[Zanas]

Taschereau (Quebec downtown)
PQ 41 (incumbent), PLQ 19 (minister for economical development, currently MNA in Montreal), QS 16, CAQ 16, ON 7, Others 1

A few pages earlier on this thread I thought it had been said that Québec was quite a conservative city, so I don't really understand. Could someone tell me who represents Québec now, downtown and suburbs, and what have been the evolutions recently ? Because PQ at 41, QS at 16 and ON at 7 doesn't seem to make that a conservative place...

[MaxQue]

Taschereau (Quebec downtown)
PQ 41 (incumbent), PLQ 19 (minister for economical development, currently MNA in Montreal), QS 16, CAQ 16, ON 7, Others 1

A few pages earlier on this thread I thought it had been said that Québec was quite a conservative city, so I don't really understand. Could someone tell me who represents Québec now, downtown and suburbs, and what have been the evolutions recently ? Because PQ at 41, QS at 16 and ON at 7 doesn't seem to make that a conservative place...

The downtown is where the poor neighbourhoods and the university are, if I remember well.
That riding doesn't vote at all like the other ones.

[adma]

It's a little like Ottawa Centre relative to the rest of Ottawa.

[Hatman 🍁]

Taschereau (Quebec downtown)
PQ 41 (incumbent), PLQ 19 (minister for economical development, currently MNA in Montreal), QS 16, CAQ 16, ON 7, Others 1

A few pages earlier on this thread I thought it had been said that Québec was quite a conservative city, so I don't really understand. Could someone tell me who represents Québec now, downtown and suburbs, and what have been the evolutions recently ? Because PQ at 41, QS at 16 and ON at 7 doesn't seem to make that a conservative place...

Downtowns are always more left wing.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum has corrected their sampling problem from last week: PQ 33, PLQ 28, CAQ 27.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/30/poll-shows-marois-pq-winning-a-slight-majority-in-quebec-election/

Marois reminds the students she can only repeal loi 12 with a majority (or with QS support if she winds up with 61/2 seats).

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/30/01-4569664-pauline-marois-met-en-garde-les-etudiants.php

Lisee continues self-promoting, as usual.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/la-campagne-virale/201208/29/01-4569407-jean-francois-lisee-fait-encore-parler-de-lui.php?

Legault goes hawkish on universities. Wanted cops at UQAM.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/358085/universite-francois-legault-denonce-les-voyous

[Poirot]

Forum did three riding polls in the eastern townships, margin of error is around 4,5%.

Sherbrooke: 41 PQ, 39 PLQ, 11 CAQ
Orford: 36 PLQ, 35 PQ, 22 CAQ
Saint-François: 39 PQ 37 PLQ 16 CAQ

Segma also polled Saint-François and it has PQ with a big lead, 46% to 26% for PLQ and 18% CAQ.

The Journal de Montréal wrote about the fierce battle in the Montreal suburbs (area code 450). The many close races there will determine the outcome. On the radio Jean Lapierre said he was given a Léger poll done in La Prairie riding with the PQ at 35%, CAQ 32% and PLQ 22%. The projection websites don't show this riding that close, perhaps it means the CAQ keeps rising in the suburbs.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've never seen one riding get polled so often as Sherbrooke. Surprised to see Charest come back there.

[RogueBeaver]

I've never seen one riding get polled so often as Sherbrooke. Surprised to see Charest come back there.

He'll either win or lose it in a squeaker. My early prediction on the next PLQ leader is Fournier if he's interested. Not Coderre, the PLQ doesn't like a hatchet man leading them.

[Peter the Lefty]

Just took the quiz on the parties.  Of course, they took the soveriegnty thing quite seriously so I wound up closest to the Greens than QS.  Though in terms of agreement, I was in the 70's with both, but slightly higher for QS.  Needless to say, there was a very large gap between those two and the rest. 

[lilTommy]

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2012/08/31-aout-2012-nouveau-sondage-crop.html

PQ minority; QS 2-4 seats (looking in the race in Laurier-Dorion), i'd assume the 4th riding is Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques.

@Peternerdman... that was my result too; b/c i'm more federalist i wound up being about even between PVQ and QS

[RogueBeaver]

CROP: PQ 32, CAQ 28, PLQ 26. We should have one final Leger poll this weekend and then curtains till Tuesday night.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/caq-liberals-battle-it-out-for-second-place-in-quebec-poll/article4511787/


Hebert: Liberals are done and CAQ has potential.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1249820--hebert-quebec-election-lining-up-to-be-charest-s-last-round

TCTC: on the brink between PQ minority and majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2012/08/31-aout-2012-nouveau-sondage-crop.html

Haha: Charest says only he or Marois can form a government.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/30/01-4569872-jean-charest-lance-un-ultime-appel-aux-federalistes.php

Stating the obvious: Marois says sovereignty is less important in a minority.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/31/01-4570085-pauline-marois-la-souverainete-reculerait-si-le-pq-est-minoritaire.php?

Marois will start making demands almost immediately upon taking office if she wins.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/358257/marois-envisage-sa-premiere-rencontre-avec-harper-et-dresse-sa-liste-d-exigences


La Presse endorsed the PLQ while saying the CAQ is an alternative for those who want a change in government. Le Devoir will probably endorse the PQ as usual. The Torontonians are split between PLQ and CAQ.

http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/editoriaux/andre-pratte/201208/30/01-4569794-pour-la-stabilite.php

[adma]

At this rate, I'm even wondering whether Charest might pull off an "Alison Redford surprise"--not by winning, but by getting the most votes and/or seats, or at least outdoing the direst predictions on devil-you-know grounds; the fact that the three main parties remain within 5-10 points of each other hints at such a possibility.  (Not probability.  Possibility.)

The possibility that Charest *might* snatch yet another Sherbrooke victory from the jaws of certain defeat suggests as much.  (Not "will".  "Might".)

[RogueBeaver]

Did Redford have an approval rating in the 20s?