Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[mileslunn]

Two questions.

1.  Anybody have a list of what papers have endorsed who.  The Globe and Mail was suppose to give their endorsement today, but hasn't and I cannot find the National Post endorsement either.  Toronto Star endorsed the PLQ

2.  How come Quebec City is more conservative than most of the province.  It went mostly ADQ in 2007, will probably go mostly CAQ on Tuesday and also went largely for the federal Conservatives in 2006 and 2008 (and even last election despite losing all seats to the NDP they averaged 10% more than their province wide average).

[RogueBeaver]

La Presse has endorsed the PLQ while also casting the CAQ as an acceptable alternative. Le Devoir endorsed the PQ, NP the CAQ, G&M PLQ.

QC: Discussed a couple of pages back.

[Hatman 🍁]

At this rate, I'm even wondering whether Charest might pull off an "Alison Redford surprise"--not by winning, but by getting the most votes and/or seats, or at least outdoing the direst predictions on devil-you-know grounds; the fact that the three main parties remain within 5-10 points of each other hints at such a possibility.  (Not probability.  Possibility.)

The possibility that Charest *might* snatch yet another Sherbrooke victory from the jaws of certain defeat suggests as much.  (Not "will".  "Might".)

If there's any surprises, it will be the CAQ not doing as well as expected. But let's face it, Quebec is not Alberta.

[DL]

Two questions.

2.  How come Quebec City is more conservative than most of the province.  It went mostly ADQ in 2007, will probably go mostly CAQ on Tuesday and also went largely for the federal Conservatives in 2006 and 2008 (and even last election despite losing all seats to the NDP they averaged 10% more than their province wide average).

There was a long article about the Quebec City mystery" a few days ago. It seems to be a combination of people in suburban QC resenting their neighbours who work for the Quebec government (there are two solitudes in QC, if you are a civil servant you hate CAQ/CPC and if you are NOT a civil servant you resent the people who are), that plus for some reason there are some very rightwing populist talk radio hosts in QC that seem to have a major influence on people.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chaudiere-Appalaches is even more conservative. Hashemite hinted towards why on his blog.

[mileslunn]

Chaudiere-Appalaches is even more conservative. Hashemite hinted towards why on his blog.

True enough and that interestingly enough was the only area in the last federal election that went Conservative.  However the areas to the west, Mauricie, or areas to the East, Charlevoix, are less Conservative and likewise on the south side of the St. Lawrence so is centre du Quebec and Bas Saint Laurent.  Chaudiere-Appalaches is without question Quebec's most right wing area.  And the suburb part makes some sense.  Ottawa sort of follows this pattern at least on the Ontario side.  In other capital cities the suburbs are obviously more conservative, but that is generally the case in pretty much every city.  For example Vancouver is the same and even Toronto (since despite being a capital the percentage who work for the government is not that high).

[Poirot]

There was a long article about the Quebec City mystery" a few days ago. It seems to be a combination of people in suburban QC resenting their neighbours who work for the Quebec government (there are two solitudes in QC, if you are a civil servant you hate CAQ/CPC and if you are NOT a civil servant you resent the people who are), that plus for some reason there are some very rightwing populist talk radio hosts in QC that seem to have a major influence on people.

I think this is the article:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/mystery-quebec-city-potential-world-capital-chooses-not-080508427.html

[Poirot]

La Presse has endorsed the PLQ while also casting the CAQ as an acceptable alternative. Le Devoir endorsed the PQ, NP the CAQ, G&M PLQ.

Le Droit (Gatineau-Ottawa) has endorsed PLQ. I think Le Soleil (Quebec City) gives the choice between PLQ and CAQ but says people should consider the capital was well treated by the government, the mayor had a great relationship with the premier, and PLQ ministers running in Louis-Hébert and Jean-Talon deserve support of citizens.

La Presse, Le Soleil, Le Droit are Gesca/ Power Corp newspapers.

The National Post is for CAQ? I would imagine they are against their economic nationalism, intervention in the economy and Caisse, hike in capital gains and dividend tax, and spending promises.

[RogueBeaver]

La Presse has endorsed the PLQ while also casting the CAQ as an acceptable alternative. Le Devoir endorsed the PQ, NP the CAQ, G&M PLQ.

Le Droit (Gatineau-Ottawa) has endorsed PLQ. I think Le Soleil (Quebec City) gives the choice between PLQ and CAQ but says people should consider the capital was well treated by the government, the mayor had a great relationship with the premier, and PLQ ministers running in Louis-Hébert and Jean-Talon deserve support of citizens.

La Presse, Le Soleil, Le Droit are Gesca/ Power Corp newspapers.

The National Post is for CAQ? I would imagine they are against their economic nationalism, intervention in the economy and Caisse, hike in capital gains and dividend tax, and spending promises.

Which is mentioned- but the Liberals and CAQ aren't that different on the economic front.

[Poirot]

The Montreal Gazette is for CAQ

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't know if this is a sign the PLQ vote could go even lower if the anglos start to abandon it. Legault is now using the anti-referendum card that Charest usually uses.

La Tribune endorsed Charest as candidate for the Sherbrooke riding.

[Linus Van Pelt]

You also have to remember that provincial civil services, in the narrow sense (i.e. excluding teachers etc. who are indirectly provincial employees but who aren't concentrated in the capital), aren't that large. A large majority of jobs in Quebec City aren't with the province.

[MaxQue]

The last Léger poll is in.

PQ 33, CAQ 28, PLQ 27, so, the same thing than their last poll.

http://fr.canoe.ca/infos/quebeccanada/politiqueprovinciale/archives/2012/09/20120902-010702.html

Others points.

Franco vote. PQ leads CAQ by 7, PLQ at 18%.
The PQ vote is the hardest one, 85% of voters are sure about their choice.
Apparently, CAQ leads in Lanaudière, PQ in Laurentides.

[後援会]

I am immensely amused how the PQ is on track to a majority despite almost certainly getting a smaller percentage of the vote than in their 2008 defeat.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I am immensely amused how the PQ is on track to a majority despite almost certainly getting a smaller percentage of the vote than in their 2008 defeat.

Canadian election results can be amusing that way.

[Hatman 🍁]

Are all the polls in, or are we expecting some more?

[DL]

Are all the polls in, or are we expecting some more?

I wouldn't be surprised if Forum did one last poll and released it tonight or tomorrow. Remember how they did that one final poll on the eve of the Alberta election that suddenly showed Wildrose losing steam?

[Vosem]

So, I've actually been following this election, just not on this site, and I've decided to post here, my probably final (and sort of elaborate) seat-by-seat predictions, along with margins, and, in most seats, the second-place. The ridings are organized by region and alphabetically (the way Wikipedia does). Highlights:

• PQ win a minority government. They are in the mid-50s and even if they form some sort of deal with the smaller sovereigntist left-wing parties they are still short of a majority.
• QS wins Mercier and Gouin by double-digits, but doesn't come close anywhere else, though they come in second in a few other ridings. Ultimately, 2008 was an embarrasingly good result for this party and unfortunately they'll do even better this time.
• ON wins Nicolet-Becancour.
• Charest just barely ekes out a win in Sherbrooke. The PLQ get just short of 40 seats, a better result than expected, and become the Opposition.
• The CAQ get 30 seats. Legault wins in l'Assomption. The CAQ gets a good result, all in all.
• Ultimately...every single party in the Assembly can spin this result as a victory, which is kind of weird. Hardest of all to do so for the Liberals, but hey – everybody thought we'd do even worse!

Bas-Saint-Laurent and Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine:
Bonaventure: Damien Arsenault (PLQ) defeats challenger Sylvain Roy (PQ) by 2%
Cote-du-Sud: Francois Lagace (CAQ) defeats Norbert Morin (PLQ) by 6-7%
Gaspe: Gaetan Lelievre (PQ) defeats Georges Mamelonet (PLQ) by 17-18%
Iles-de-la-Madeleine: Jeannine Richard (PQ) defeats Germain Chevarie (PLQ) by 6%
Matane-Matapedia: Pascal Berube (PQ) defeats challenger Jean-Clement Ouellet (PLQ) by 28%
Rimouski: Irvin Pelletier (PQ) defeats challenger Raymond Giguere (PLQ) by 18%
Riviere-du-Loup-Temiscouata: Jean d'Amour (PLQ) defeats challenger Michel Lagace (PQ) by 17-18%

Regional Total:
PQ: 4
PLQ: 2
CAQ: 1

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 4
PLQ: 2
CAQ: 1

Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean and Cote-Nord:
Chicoutimi: Stephane Bedard (PQ) defeats challenger Carol Neron (PLQ) by 18%
Dubuc: Jean-Marie Claveau (PQ) defeats Serge Simard (PLQ) by 10%
Duplessis: Lorraine Richard (PQ) defeats challenger Lise Pelletier (PLQ) by 25%
Jonquiere: Sylvain Gaudreault (PQ) defeats challenger Pierre-Olivier Simard (CAQ) by 23%
Lac-Saint-Jean: Alexandre Cloutier (PQ) defeats challenger Jeannot Boulianne (PLQ) by 32-33%
Rene-Levesque: Marjolain Dufour (PQ) defeats challenger Pascal Chouinard (PQ) by 34%
Roberval: Denis Trottier (PQ) defeats challenger Georges Simard (PLQ) by 13%

Regional Total:
PQ: 7

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 11
PLQ: 2
CAQ: 1

Capite-Nationale:
Charlesbourg: Denise Trudel (CAQ) defeats Michel Pigeon (PLQ) by less than 1%
Charlevoix-Cote-de-Beaupre: Pauline Marois (PQ) defeats challenger Ian Latremouille (CAQ) by 16%
Chauveau: Gerard Deltell (CAQ) defeats challenger Marie-Eve Picard-Bedard (PLQ) by 24%
Jean-Lesage: Andre Drolet (PLQ) defeats PQ and CAQ challengers tied for 2nd place by 6%
Jean-Talon: Yves Bolduc (PLQ) defeats Neko Likongo (PQ) by 16%
La Peltrie: Eric Caire (CAQ) defeats challenger Jean-Francois Gosselin (PLQ) by 18%
Louis-Hebert: Sam Hamad (PLQ) defeats challenger Michel Hamel (CAQ) by 8%
Montmorency: Michelyne St-Laurent (CAQ) defeats Raymond Bernier (PLQ) by 9-10%
Portneuf: Jacques Marcotte (CAQ) defeats Michel Matte (PLQ) by 16-17%
Taschereau: Agnes Maltais (PQ) defeats Clement Gignac (PLQ) by 13%
Vanier-Les Rivieres: Sylvain Levesque (CAQ) defeats Patrick Huot (PLQ) by 10-11%

Regional Total:
CAQ: 6
PLQ: 3
PQ: 2

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 13
CAQ: 7
PLQ: 5

Mauricie:
Champlain: Noella Champagne (PQ) defeats challenger Pierre Jackson (CAQ) by 6-7%
Laviolette: Julie Boulet (PLQ) defeats challenger Andre Beaudoin (PQ) by 19%
Maskinonge: Jean-Paul Diamond (PLQ) defeats challenger Patrick Lahaie (PQ) by 1%
Saint-Maurice: Luc Trudel (PQ) defeats Robert Pilotte (PLQ) by 8%
Trois-Rivieres: Djemila Benhabib (PQ) defeats Danielle St-Amand (PLQ) by 2%

Regional Total:
PQ: 3
PLQ: 2

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 16
CAQ: 7
PLQ: 7

Estrie:
Megantic: Gloriane Blais (PQ) defeats Ghislain Bolduc (PLQ) by 3-4%
Orford: Pierre Reid (PLQ) defeats challenger Michel Breton (PQ) by 8%
Richmond: Etienne-Alexis Boucher (PQ) defeats Karine Vallieres (PLQ) by 10%
Saint-Francois: Rejean Hebert (PQ) defeats Nathalie Goguen (PLQ) by 12%
Sherbrooke: Jean Charest (PLQ) defeats challenger Serge Cardin (PQ) by less than 1%

Regional Total:
PQ: 3
PLQ: 2

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 19
PLQ: 9
CAQ: 7

[Vosem]

Montreal – East:
Anjou-Louis-Riel: Lise Theriault (PLQ) defeats challenger Martine Roux (PQ) by 8%
Bourassa-Sauve: Rita deSantis (PLQ) defeats Marianne Dessureault (PQ) by 17%
Bourget: Maka Kotto (PQ) defeats Mario Bentrovato (CAQ) by 17-18%
Cremazie: Diane deCourcy (PQ) defeats Eleni Bakopanos (PLQ) by 7-8%
Gouin: Francoise David (QS) defeats Nicolas Girard (PQ) by 15%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve: Carole Poirier (PQ) defeats challenger Alexandre Leduc (QS) by 24%
Jeanne-Mance-Viger: Filomena Rotiroti (PLQ) defeats challenger Jean-Francois Gagne (CAQ) by 35%
LaFontaine: Marc Tanguay (PLQ) defeats challenger Domenico Cavaliere (CAQ) by 26%
Laurier-Dorion: Gerry Sklavounos (PLQ) defeats challenger Badiona Bazin (PQ) by 3-4%
Mercier: Amir Khadir (QS) defeats challenger Jean Poirier (PQ) by 32%
Pointe-aux-Trembles: Nicole Leger (PQ) defeats challenger Guy Boutin (CAQ) by 22-23%
Rosemont: Jean-Francois Lisee (PQ) defeats Madwa-Nika Phanord-Cadet (PLQ) by 22-23%
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques: Daniel Breton (PQ) defeats Manon Masse (QS) by 13%
Viau: Emmanuel Dubourg (PLQ) defeats challenger Gabriel Munayco (PQ) by 22%

Regional Total:
PLQ: 6
PQ: 6
QS: 2

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 25
PLQ: 15
CAQ: 7
QS: 2

Montreal – West:
Acadie: Christine St-Pierre (PLQ) defeats challenger Rachid Bandou (PQ) by 37%
D'Arcy-McGee: Lawrence Bergman (PLQ) defeats PQ, CAQ, QS challengers tied for 2nd place by 80%
Jacques-Cartier: Geoffrey Kelley (PLQ) defeats challenger Paola Hawa (CAQ) by 56%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys: Robert Poeti (PLQ) defeats Jessica Riggi (PQ) by 36%
Marquette: Francois Ouimet (PLQ) defeats Etienne Gougoux (PQ) by 21%
Mont-Royal: Pierre Arcand (PLQ) defeats PQ and CAQ challengers tied for 2nd place by 53%
Nelligan: Yolande James (PLQ) defeats challenger Philippe Boileau (CAQ) by 43%
Notre-Dame-de-Grace: Kathleen Weil (PLQ) defeats challenger David Mandel (QS) by 37%
Outremont: Raymond Bachand (PLQ) defeats challenger Roxanne Gendron (PQ) by 20%
Robert-Baldwin: Pierre Marsan (PLQ) defeats challenger Toni Rinow (CAQ) by 55-56%
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne: Marguerite Blais (PLQ) defeats challenger Sophie Stanke (PQ) by 2-3%
Saint-Laurent: Jean-Marc Fournier (PLQ) defeats challenger George Manolikakis (CAQ) by 22%
Verdun: Henri-Francois Gautrin (PLQ) defeats challenger Thierry St-Cyr (PQ) by 6%
Westmount-Saint-Louis: Jacques Chagnon (PLQ) defeats challenger Marc-Andre Bahl (PQ) by 56%

Regional Total:
PLQ: 14

Overall Total So Far:
PLQ: 29
PQ: 25
CAQ: 7
QS: 2

Outaouais:
Chapleau: Marc Carriere (PLQ) defeats challenger Yves Morin (PQ) by 20%
Gatineau: Stephanie Vallee (PLQ) defeats challenger Maude Tremblay (PQ) by 19-20%
Hull: Maryse Gaudreault (PLQ) defeats challenger Gilles Aube (PQ) by 13%
Papineau: Jean-Francois Primeau (PQ) defeats Alexandre Iraca (PLQ) by less than 1%
Pontiac: Charlotte l'Ecuyer (PLQ) defeats challenger Genevieve Gendron-Nadeau (PQ) by 39%

Regional Total:
PLQ: 4
PQ: 1

Overall Total So Far:
PLQ: 33
PQ: 26
CAQ: 7
QS: 2

Abitibi-Temiscamingue and Nord-du-Quebec:
Abitibi-Est: Elizabeth Larouche (PQ) defeats Pierre Corbeil (PLQ) by 5%
Abitibi-Ouest: Francois Gendron (PQ) defeats challenger Claude Morin (PLQ) by 34-35%
Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue: Gilles Chapadeau (PQ) defeats Melissa Turgeon (PLQ) by 5%
Ungava: Luc Ferland (PQ) defeats challenger Gerald Lemoyne (PLQ) by 23%

Regional Total:
PQ: 4

Overall Total So Far:
PLQ: 33
PQ: 30
CAQ: 7
QS: 2

Chaudiere-Appalaches and Centre-du-Quebec:
Arthabaska: Sylvie Roy (CAQ) defeats Claude Bachand (PLQ) by 7%
Beauce-Nord: Andre Spenard (CAQ) defeats Jack Roy (PLQ) by 36%
Beauce-Sud: Richard Savoie (CAQ) defeats Robert Dutil (PLQ) by 25%
Bellechasse: Christian Levesque (CAQ) defeats Dominique Vien (PLQ) by 17%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere: Marc Picard (CAQ) defeats challenger Real St-Laurent (PLQ) by 27%
Drummond-Bois-Francs: Sebastien Schneeberger (CAQ) defeats Annie Jean (PQ) by 8%
Johnson: Stephane Legault (CAQ) defeats Yves-Francois Blanchet (PQ) by 10%
Levis: Christian Dube (CAQ) defeats Gilles Lehouillier (PLQ) by 8-9%
Lotbiniere-Frontenac: Martin Caron (CAQ) defeats Laurent Lessard (PLQ) by 6-7%
Nicolet-Becancour: Jean-Martin Aussant (ON) defeats challenger Marc Descoteaux (PLQ) by 2%

Regional Total:
CAQ: 9
ON: 1

Overall Total So Far:
PLQ: 33
PQ: 30
CAQ: 16
QS: 2
ON: 1

Laval:
Chomedey: Guy Ouellette (PLQ) defeats challenger Jean Cooke (PQ) by 32%
Fabre: Dominique Anglade (CAQ) defeats Francois-Gycelain Rocque (PQ) by less than 1%
Laval-des-Rapides: Leo Bureau-Blouin (PQ) defeats Alain Paquet (PLQ) by 7%
Milles-Iles: Robert Carrier (PQ) defeats Francine Charbonneau (PLQ) by 1%
Sainte-Rose: Suzanne Proulx (PQ) defeats Francois Gaudreau (CAQ) by 6%
Vimont: Linda Tousignant (PQ) defeats Jean Rousselle (PLQ) by 1%

Regional Total:
PQ: 4
CAQ: 1
PLQ: 1

Overall Total So Far:
PLQ: 34
PQ: 34
CAQ: 17
QS: 2
ON: 1

Lanaudiere:
Berthier: Andre Villeneuve (PQ) defeats challenger Francois Benjamin (CAQ) by 4%
Joliette: Veronique Hivon (PQ) defeats challenger Normand Masse (CAQ) by 15%
L'Assomption: Francois Legault (CAQ) defeats Lizabel Nitoi (PQ) by 6%
Masson: Christian Gauthier (CAQ) defeats Diane Hamelin (PQ) by less than 1%
Repentigny: Chantal Longpre (CAQ) defeats Scott McKay (PQ) by 2%
Rousseau: Nicolas Marceau (PQ) defeats challenger Laurence Fortin (CAQ) by 17-18%
Terrebonne: Gaetan Barrette (CAQ) defeats Mathieu Traversy (PQ) by 10%

Regional Total:
CAQ: 4
PQ: 3

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 37
PLQ: 34
CAQ: 21
QS: 2
ON: 1

Laurentides:
Argenteuil: Roland Richer (PQ) defeats challenger Lise Proulx (PLQ) by 4%
Bertrand: Claude Cousineau (PQ) defeats challenger Yannick Ouellette (PLQ) by 24%
Blainville: Daniel Ratthe (CAQ) defeats challenger Bernard Genereux (PQ) by 36%
Deux-Montagnes: Benoit Charette (CAQ) defeats challenger Daniel Goyer (PQ) by 31%
Groulx: Helene Daneault (CAQ) defeats Raymond Archambault (PQ) by 16%
Labelle: Sylvain Page (PQ) defeats challenger Vicki Emard (PLQ) by 32%
Mirabel: Sylvie d'Amours (CAQ) defeats Denise Beaudoin (PQ) by 5%
Saint-Jerome: Jacques Duchesneau (CAQ) defeats Gilles Robert (PQ) by 12-13%

Regional Total:
CAQ: 5
PQ: 3

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 40
PLQ: 34
CAQ: 26
QS: 2
ON: 1

Monteregie – Eastern:
Borduas: Pierre Duchesne (PQ) defeats Emmanuelle Gehin (CAQ) by 13%
Brome-Missisquoi: Pierre Paradis (PLQ) defeats challenger Benoit Legault (CAQ) by less than 1%
Chambly: Bertrand St-Arnaud (PQ) defeats challenger Martin Trudeau (CAQ) by 3%
Granby: Francois Bonnardel (CAQ) defeats challenger Guy Gaudord (PLQ) by 30%
Iberville: Marie Bouille (PQ) defeats challenger Claire Samson (CAQ) by 8-9%
Richelieu: Elaine Zakaib (PQ) defeats challenger Alain Plante (PLQ) by 16%
Saint-Hyacinthe: Emilien Pelletier (PQ) defeats challenger Pierre Schetagne (CAQ) by 10%
Saint-Jean: Dave Turcotte (PQ) defeats challenger Yvan Berthelot (CAQ) by 12%
Vercheres: Stephane Bergeron (PQ) defeats challenger Chantal Soucy (CAQ) by 8%

Regional Total:
PQ: 7
CAQ: 1
PLQ: 1

Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 47
PLQ: 35
CAQ: 27
QS: 2
ON: 1

Monteregie – South Shore:
Beauharnois: Guy Leclair (PQ) defeats challenger Michel Drouin (CAQ) by 15%
Chateauguay: Maryse Perreault (PQ) defeats Pierre Moreau (PLQ) by 1%
Huntingdon: Claire Isabelle (CAQ) defeats Stephane Billette (PLQ) by 1%
La Piniere: Fatima Houda-Pepin (PLQ) defeats PQ and CAQ challengers tied for 2nd place by 23%
Laporte: Nicole Menard (PLQ) defeats Simon Belanger (PQ) by 6%
La Prairie: Pierre Langlois (PQ) defeats Stephane le Bouyonnec (CAQ) by 7%
Marie-Victorin: Bernard Dranville (PQ) defeats challenger Simon Jolin-Barrette (CAQ) by 21%
Montarville: Nathalie Roy (CAQ) defeats Monique Richard (PQ) by 2-3%
Sanguinet: Francois Rebello (CAQ) defeats challenger Alain Therrien (PQ) by 28%
Soulanges: Lucie Charlebois (PLQ) defeats challenger Andre Bouthillier (PQ) by less than 1%
Taillon: Marie Malavoy (PQ) defeats challenger Pierre Cimone (CAQ) by 15%
Vachon: Martine Oullet (PQ) defeats challenger Linda Saulnier (PLQ) by 26%
Vaudreuil: Yvon Marcoux (PLQ) defeats challenger Kim Comeau (PQ) by 13-14%

Regional Total:
PQ: 6
PLQ: 4
CAQ: 3

Overall Total:
PQ: 55
PLQ: 39
CAQ: 30
QS: 2
ON: 1

[Poirot]

I will go with 60 PQ, 32 PLQ, 31 CAQ, 2 QS.

If the PQ wins a minority, is the party being official opposition matter on the stability and duration of government. I mean the CAQ will probably be more eager to have another election than PLQ so maybe they would fit more in official opposition role.

[Talleyrand]

59 PQ, 30 PLQ, 33 CAQ, 2 QS.

I hope PQ+QS+ON (possibly) is less than PLQ+CAQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are all the riding polls posted on this forum. Does anyone know of any that I have missed?

Riding polls      PQ   CAQ   PLQ   QS   ON   PVQ
Sherbrooke   08/17   46   11   31   6   2   2
Granby         24   49   16   7   1   3
Dubuc         44   18   32   4   1
Lac-Saint-Jean      59   18   17   3   1   1
Chicoutimi      53   19   21   2   1
Roberval      53   14   26   5
Jonquiere      51   17   20   6   1   2
Nicolet-Becanour08/22   25   31   16      28
Sherbrooke   08/24   45   10   33   7   3   2
Trois-Riveres   08/29   36   18   30   8   4   4
Saint-Maurice      42   22   26   5   2
Levis         18   41   27   10   2   2
Louis-Hebert      30   26   35   5   2   2
Hull         30   12   39   14   3   1
Papineau      36   20   27   11   3   3
Taschereau      41   16   19   16   7   1
Sherbrooke   08/30   41   11   39
Orford         35   22   36
Saint-Francois      39   16   37
Saint-Francois      46   18   26
La Prairie      35   32   22

[RogueBeaver]

Poirot: If forced to choose Legault would probably side with the Liberals at NCM time. However if Marois wins a strong minority or de facto majority (w/QS) then she'll go for the kill and have another election immediately after Charbonneau reports.

[Hash]

308 reported polls in Gaspe and Bonaventure, the PQ are thumping the PLQ in the former and narrowly ahead in the latter.

[RogueBeaver]

Hatman, when's your final projection?

[Poirot]

Do you have the second polls done in Saguenay Lac Saint-Jean at the end of August.
http://www.segmarecherche.ca/Sondages/RapportSagLac30-08-12.pdf

CAQ had moved in second place in 4 out of 5 ridings.

Chicoutimi: PQ 47 CAQ 24 PLQ 19
Dubuc: PQ 44 CAQ 25 PLQ 23
Jonquière: PQ 51 CAQ 27 PLQ 15
Lac St-Jean: PQ 57 CAQ 20 PLQ 15
Roberval: PQ 46 CAQ 20 PLQ 29

They had Bonaventure also at end of August. It is usually Liberal but it's not sure now. Charest was there in the last days of the campaign. With 4,4% marging of error it is statistical tie.
PQ 41 CAQ 17 PLQ 34

http://www.segmarecherche.ca/Sondages/Rapport_BOI2708_2012-08-29.pdf


Also Segma had Brome-Missisquoi.
http://www.lapresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201208/29/01-4569085-brome-missisquoi-une-lutte-corsee-en-vue.php

PQ 30,6 CAQ 32,4 PLQ 27 so all three within margin of error.
The Liberal MNA has been there for decades.

I think the PQ has realeased 2 internal polls in Terrebonne to show them in the lead against CAQ health star candidate. Not sure if it's reliable or it is strategy. I think one was done by Crop and the other one by Repère.