Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)
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Author Topic: Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)  (Read 142769 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #750 on: September 04, 2012, 07:13:33 AM »

PQ majority, Liberal OO, Charest narrowly defeated. That's my prediction.
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Zanas
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« Reply #751 on: September 04, 2012, 07:42:01 AM »

I will go with ON 1, QS 2, PQ 64, CAQ 30, PLQ 28. I think we've seen the CAQ slowly overtaking the PLQ in the latest polls, and I've read here and there that even among Anglo voters lots were considering voting CAQ. I guess this could mean a similar defeat for the PLQ to that when the PQ was thrown out of even Official opposition by the ADQ back in 2007.

I also think (and _strongly_ hope) that Charest will be thrown out, but you never know with that kind of douchebags...
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You kip if you want to...
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #752 on: September 04, 2012, 07:51:52 AM »

Imagine if Quebec pulled an Alberta here. Tongue
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Holmes
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« Reply #753 on: September 04, 2012, 07:53:44 AM »

Well, it's not like PQ is the "devil you don't know" in this case.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #754 on: September 04, 2012, 08:16:43 AM »

Well, it's not like PQ is the "devil you don't know" in this case.

Yes, that would be the CAQ. They will likely underperform.

On its Twitter account, Ekos also releashed a poll

PQ 36.0, CAQ 24.5, PLQ 23.2, QS 10.7, Others 5.5.

I overheard some of the other programmers talking about running this poll (by the way, I'm a programmer there now Smiley )
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #755 on: September 04, 2012, 09:07:40 AM »

I'm going with a PQ minority government and a Liberal Official Opposition.  I think we'll see a good showing from CAQ, which will keep PQ from a majority.  Although, if it's close, it'll be interesting to see if there is some sort of coalition government with PQ and Québec solidaire.  But PQ would have to just barely fall short of 63 for that to happen.
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jaichind
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« Reply #756 on: September 04, 2012, 09:36:06 AM »

Any link someone can post for me to watch on the web a video stream of the results.  Will CBC have coverage of results and will they stream that online?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #757 on: September 04, 2012, 09:41:43 AM »

Any link someone can post for me to watch on the web a video stream of the results.  Will CBC have coverage of results and will they stream that online?

They will probably stream something on their site.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #758 on: September 04, 2012, 10:03:26 AM »

I'm going with a PQ minority government and a Liberal Official Opposition.  I think we'll see a good showing from CAQ, which will keep PQ from a majority.  Although, if it's close, it'll be interesting to see if there is some sort of coalition government with PQ and Québec solidaire.  But PQ would have to just barely fall short of 63 for that to happen.

There'd never be a "coalition" involving QS surely. They strike me as one of those parties which bases its whole rhetoric on not being the establishment.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #759 on: September 04, 2012, 10:11:47 AM »

I'm going with a PQ minority government and a Liberal Official Opposition.  I think we'll see a good showing from CAQ, which will keep PQ from a majority.  Although, if it's close, it'll be interesting to see if there is some sort of coalition government with PQ and Québec solidaire.  But PQ would have to just barely fall short of 63 for that to happen.

There'd never be a "coalition" involving QS surely. They strike me as one of those parties which bases its whole rhetoric on not being the establishment.

Every anti-establishment candidate/party says that, but when faced with actually achieving the results you want, even the most ardent principle-based people can cave.  And with such strong rhetoric coming from PQ, if a coalition with QS would give PQ a majority government, I think QS could be swayed to form such a coalition.

Now, hopefully the elecction is nowhere close to that and sanity can prevail and the Liberals keep enough seats to keep PQ from a majority, but it's going to be close.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #760 on: September 04, 2012, 10:31:23 AM »

It wouldn't be a coalition, rather they would vote with her on supply and confidence matters plus most major legislation. If PQ/QS doesn't have a majority then she negotiates when necessary as is normal in minority governments.

Transition prep is well underway.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201209/04/01-4570835-les-partis-sont-deja-prets-pour-lapres-scrutin.php

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #761 on: September 04, 2012, 11:12:30 AM »
« Edited: September 04, 2012, 12:58:43 PM by Hatman »

Here's what the predictors are saying:

Me
PQ 64
PLQ 33
CAQ 26
QS 2

Too close to call
PQ 66
PLQ 33
CAQ 24
QS 2

308
PQ 63
PLQ 33
CAQ 27
QS 2

Riding by riding (Teddy)
PQ 70
PLQ 30
CAQ 22
QS 2
ON 1

Blunt Objects
PQ 65
PLQ 31
CAQ 27
QS 2

Junkipolitico
PQ 60
CAQ 32
PLQ 31
QS 2

That's all that I can think of. Anyone know any other sites?

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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #762 on: September 04, 2012, 11:44:20 AM »

I'm gonna go gutsy in my numbers and switch up my official opposition to CAQ.  I think enough Liberals are going to jump ship to avoid a PQ majority that'll push CAQ to win ridings they otherwise wouldn't.

PQ: 62
CAQ: 31
QLP: 30
QS: 2
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #763 on: September 04, 2012, 12:11:27 PM »

I'll disagree with you Inks. The PLQ is an established party with higher vote concentration and better GOTV. Maybe in PV but I'm quite sure that they won't lose the seat count for OO.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #764 on: September 04, 2012, 12:59:58 PM »

Added junkiepolitico's predictions to my list. He's using Smid's map (with a credit to my site) Smiley
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Vosem
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« Reply #765 on: September 04, 2012, 03:29:02 PM »

Vosem's shifted his projections, since the Forum poll suggests PQ will ultimately get a majority and there is no anti-PQ swing in the works. (If the old one is more accurate than the new one, I will be pissed.) Highlights: PQ majority, PLQ official opposition and second place in the popular vote, QS 2 seats, CAQ does OK, Charest loses in Sherbrooke, Aussant loses in Nicolet-Becancour. I'm rather busier Tuesdays than Sundays, so this set isn't as detailed:

Abitibi Est: PQ
Abitibi Ouest: PQ
Acadie: PLQ
Anjou-Louis-Riel: PLQ
Argenteuil: PQ
Arthabaska: CAQ
Beauce-Nord: CAQ
Beauce-Sud: CAQ
Beauharnois: PQ
Bellechasse: CAQ
Berthier: CAQ
Bertrand: PQ
Blainville: CAQ
Bonaventure: PQ
Borduas: PQ
Bourassa-Sauve: PLQ
Bourget: PQ
Brome-Missisquoi: CAQ
Chambly: PQ
Champlain: PQ
Chapleau: PLQ
Charlesbourg: CAQ
Charlevoix-Cote-de-Beaupre: PQ
Chateauguay: PQ
Chauveau: CAQ
Chicoutimi: PQ
Chomedey: PLQ
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere: CAQ
Cote-du-Sud: CAQ
Cremazie: PQ
D’Arcy-McGee: PLQ
Deux-Montagnes: PQ
Drummond-Bois-Francs: CAQ
Dubuc: PQ
Duplessis: PQ
Fabre: PQ
Gaspe: PQ
Gatineau: PLQ
Gouin: QS
Granby: CAQ
Groulx: CAQ
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve: PQ
Hull: PLQ
Huntingdon: CAQ
Iberville: PQ
Iles-de-la-Madeleine: PQ
Jacques-Cartier: PLQ
Jean-Lesage: CAQ
Jeanne-Mance-Viger: PLQ
Jean-Talon: PLQ
Johnson: CAQ
Joliette: PQ
Jonquiere: PQ
Labelle: PQ
Lac-Saint-Jean: PQ
LaFontaine: PLQ
La Peltrie: CAQ
La Piniere: PLQ
Laporte: PLQ
La Prairie: PQ
L’Assomption: CAQ
Laurier-Dorion: PLQ
Laval-des-Rapides: PQ
Laviolette: PLQ
Levis: CAQ
Lotbiniere-Frontenac: CAQ
Louis-Hebert: PLQ
Marguerite-Bourgeois: PLQ
Marie-Victorin: PQ
Marquette: PLQ
Maskinonge: PQ
Masson: PQ
Matane-Matapedia: PQ
Megantic: PQ
Mercier: QS
Mille-Iles: PQ
Mirabel: PQ
Montarville: PQ
Montmorency: CAQ
Mont-Royal: PLQ
Nelligan: PLQ
Nicolet-Becancour: CAQ
Notre-Dame-de-Grace: PLQ
Orford: PLQ
Outremont: PLQ
Papineau: PQ
Pointe-aux-Trembles: PQ
Pontiac: PLQ
Portneuf: CAQ
Rene-Levesque: PQ
Repentigny: PQ
Richelieu: PQ
Richmond: PQ
Rimouski: PQ
Riviere-du-Loup-Temiscouata: PQ
Robert-Baldwin: PLQ
Roberval: PQ
Rosemont: PQ
Rousseau: PQ
Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue: PQ
Saint-Francois: PQ
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne: PQ
Saint-Hyacinth: PQ
Saint-Jean: PQ
Saint-Jerome: CAQ
Saint-Laurent: PLQ
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques: PQ
Saint-Maurice: PQ
Sainte-Rose: PQ
Sanguinet: PQ
Sherbrooke: PQ
Soulanges: PQ
Taillon: PQ
Taschereau: PQ
Terrebonne: PQ
Trois-Rivieres: PQ
Ungava: PQ
Vachon: PQ
Vanier-Les Rivieres: CAQ
Vaudreuil: PLQ
Vercheres: PQ
Verdun: PLQ
Viau: PLQ
Vimont: PQ
Westmount-Saint-Louis: PLQ

Total:
PQ 66
PLQ 31
CAQ 26
QS 2

Popular Vote:
PQ 33.5%
PLQ 27.4%
CAQ 26.8%
QS 7.3%
ON 2.5%
Vert 1.6%
Others 0.9%


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MaxQue
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« Reply #766 on: September 04, 2012, 03:35:11 PM »

Not doing a detailled prediction, because I really have no clue about various Montreal suburbs, but I predict a PQ majority, given than the electors dislike minority governments.
That should be enough for a 0.5-1% swing, which should be enough to push them over the 63-seats line.

I don't believe the Forum poll, two weeks ago, they had Liberals leading by 6 over PQ!
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Poirot
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« Reply #767 on: September 04, 2012, 04:34:50 PM »

Voter turnout is up. (it has to be said last time was historic low) At 15:00, 40% of people had voted. The champions are Jean-Talon (Quebec City) and Montarville (south shore suburb Montreal) at 52%.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #768 on: September 04, 2012, 05:05:32 PM »

Someone asked for links to livestreams earlier.

I'm not sure when they'll go live, but here they are:

CBC: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012

CTV: http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.941210
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #769 on: September 04, 2012, 05:32:17 PM »


Is there any website where election results can be seen on the whole riding map as they come in? I remember there was a website with such a map during the Alberta election.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #770 on: September 04, 2012, 05:39:42 PM »


Is there any website where election results can be seen on the whole riding map as they come in? I remember there was a website with such a map during the Alberta election.

Its CBC which does that, but their result page isn't up yet.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #771 on: September 04, 2012, 05:42:40 PM »

What Max said. The map will appear on their site once the polls close. No sense in having a giant empty map on the site for hours. Tongue
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #772 on: September 04, 2012, 05:46:48 PM »

Its CBC which does that, but their result page isn't up yet.
Thanks!
What Max said. The map will appear on their site once the polls close. No sense in having a giant empty map on the site for hours. Tongue
Lol. Then they could portray the election as nailbiter since all parties would be virtually tied. Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #773 on: September 04, 2012, 05:53:05 PM »

Speaking of giant empty maps, I just put up my results template: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/p/quebec-maps.html
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Poirot
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« Reply #774 on: September 04, 2012, 06:27:36 PM »

There is map with all ridings, you roll over the riding for the result you want to see.
http://www.ledevoir.com/quebec-2012-resultats
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