Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

A bit early, but all the talk is about Legault's new CAQ party.

I've done up a rough projection based on recent polling



Warning though, this uses the old map.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't tell, do you have the ADQ winning any seats?

Clearly the CAQ would win many of the seats the ADQ did in 2007.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No, the ADQ only wins seats when the CAQ is very weak.

[MaxQue]

What is green?

And I don't see Liberals keeping my riding Abitibi-Est. They lost it in 2007 and won it by only 250 votes in 2011.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Green is QS

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Hidden at the bottom of the recent Leger poll I used to build this.

Would you vote for a provincial NDP?
Total:
YES - 34%
NO - 20%
DUNNO - 46%

PLQ
YES - 29%
NO - 35%

PQ
YES - 34%
NO - 27%

ADQ
YES - 46%
NO - 12%

QS
YES - 44%
NO - 16%



If anyone is interested, let me know, and I'll build an ElectoMatic with a Quebec NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

Right now it's all Charbonneau Commission, all the time. Legault has said he's only serving a single term should he win, and presumably like the ADQ the party collapses without him. Then back to business as usual. As for who might replace Marois, right now it looks to be Curzi. No one is behind Charest, now that Normandeau, Mulcair, Couillard and Dupuis are gone in one way or another. L'actualite has a profile of Legault if anyone's interested.

Platforms: School boards aside, the CAQ platform is essentially centre-left like the Grits. Less radical than Charest's 2003 manifesto IMO. The man had a horrible record at Education (implemtning the ghastly "reforms" along with Marois that I narrowly escaped) and an otherwise mediocre career. Yet he's supposedly the savior. I'll go on the record now as saying this is the ADQ c. 2007 all over again, with a similar final outcome.

[Verily]

ADQ
YES - 46%
NO - 12%

Lulz.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, I don't understand the Duceppe nostalgia either. What I find more interesting is what will happen in 2016, when Legault will leave (f he keeps the one-term pledge) and presumably the CAQ leaves with him.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1078940--hebert-faint-hope-for-duceppe-as-saviour

[RogueBeaver]

CAQ is now officially registered.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201110/31/01-4463091-nouveau-parti-de-francois-legault-demande-deposee-au-dge.php

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I presume that that acronym is significantly less amusing in French.

[RogueBeaver]

That is the French acronym: Coalition pour l'avenir du Quebec,

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That is the French acronym: Coalition pour l'avenir du Quebec,

Yes, but in English you would pronounce 'CAQ' as Cack. Is that word used in Canada? If not, then this is only funny to all three British people who follow Quebec provincial politics.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What is Cack?

[RogueBeaver]

In English it would be the Coalition for the Future of Quebec (CFQ). However no one I know, regardless of political or linguistic affilation, calls it that. Hell, most press reports still refer to it in one way or another as the party led by Legault, which is entirely accurate. He hasn't even unveiled any star candidates yet, just some obscure people of different affiliations (former federal Tory candidate, former Peq, former Adequiste) but no names even the hardest-core junkies would recognize. I do know that he tried to recruit Marlene Jennings but got turned down, and that's all we've heard on the candidate front.

My theory? No one wants to hitch their name to a time-limited enterprise and an affiliation which might hurt them down the road if they want to run with one of the established parties. You can't recruit big names unless you convince one to jump in and trigger a chain reaction, as happened successfully with the federal Liberals in '65.

[RogueBeaver]

Another regional association president asks Marois to step down. They're deluding themselves if they think a) a guy Kim Campbelled 6 months ago is the solution b) that the product, not the marketer, is the problem.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201110/31/01-4463176-le-president-du-pq-dans-les-laurentides-reclame-duceppe-en-renfort.php

Legault's poll numbers are on an education curve.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/actualites/201111/01/01-4463210-francois-legault-gagnant-a-trois-rivieres.php

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

All of your stories are in French...

[You kip if you want to...]

That is the French acronym: Coalition pour l'avenir du Quebec,

Yes, but in English you would pronounce 'CAQ' as Cack. Is that word used in Canada? If not, then this is only funny to all three British people who follow Quebec provincial politics.

Well, I got it.

[Хahar 🤔]

All of your stories are in French...

It's not that hard to read, is it?

[RogueBeaver]

Seven defectors to CAQ in the current Assemblee by February?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201111/01/01-4463545-francois-legault-vise-sept-deputes-en-fevrier.php

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Seven defectors to CAQ in the current Assemblee by February?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201111/01/01-4463545-francois-legault-vise-sept-deputes-en-fevrier.php

now THIS is what I've been waiting for. (clicks on the google translate)

story

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Well that's a deadline

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So the plan is to absorb the ADQ

[RogueBeaver]

Despite appearances, it won't require some serious adjustments to the ideological recipe. CAQ is centre-to-centre-right, the ADQ is the UN's successor party in all but name. Case in point: ADQ supports formalized 2-tier healthcare, CAQ puts all their eggs in the social... I mean Medicare basket. But the ADQ has been a shell for the past 30 months, so no adjustment required. Think of an alternate scenario with the PCs absorbing the Alliance, and PC culture/ideology predominating. That's essentially what will happen here.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I had suspected Picard and Caire would jump. I'm surprised they didn't leap the day Legault announced that he was thinking about creating a new right of... and I'd have thought they'd have joined before he finished his sentance; regardless, my money is on both of them becoming CAQers... CAQys? ASAP. As for the rest of the ADQ I think it's possible and if the ADQ performs poorly in the polls perhaps even a bit likely.

[RogueBeaver]

The problem is what happens when Legault leaves in 2016. CAQ can still survive as a shell, much as the ADQ has post-Dumont, but unless he finds a credible successor among his list of star candidates then curtains.

Most likely CAQ will not run in the Bonaventure by-election that will determine Normandeau's successor, which allows both Charest and Marois to save face.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/334951/le-piege-de-bonaventure

[Hatman 🍁]

any word on when that by-election will be?