Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

Only 4 ridings have been declared. Looks like a minority government at this stage.

[Zanas]

For whom ?

[Smid]

Only 4 ridings have been declared. Looks like a minority government at this stage.

CAQ will be kingmakers - will it be a minority government, or will they negotiate a coalition? Which side will they back?

[Zanas]

It is again a bit better for the PQ now. Even Cardin leads by 3 votes over Charest in Sherbrooke ! lol

Anyways it's really really close nearly everywhere, so it will keep going up and down. Only thing we can tell is that it's gonna be a PLQ-PQ race, CAQ being a lot lower.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Looks more and more like a PQ minority.

[Zanas]

Both leaders of QS are in the lead in their riding.

I think the PQ can still get a majority, but the PLQ will get a strong opposition.

[後援会]

...what happens if the PQ fail to hit 63 and the CAQ/PLQ combined also fail to hit 63? Could we be looking a total disaster?

[Zanas]

Charest now is 90 votes, that's 2 %, behind the PQ.

Figures now show 61 elected or in the lead for PQ and 2 for QS, which could mean a majority with QS in the balance of power.

This election night is fascinating, I'm really thrilled to be following it !

edit : now 180 votes and 3 pts...

[Zanas]

...what happens if the PQ fail to hit 63 and the CAQ/PLQ combined also fail to hit 63? Could we be looking a total disaster?

You wouldn't have a PLQ-CAQ coalition government anyway. The most likely outcome would be a new election immediately after.

[RogueBeaver]

Networks project a PQ government, unsure whether it'll be a minority or majority. Charest trailing in Sherbrooke.

[Antonio the Sixth]

PQ seems to be hovering between 58-61. There's still an outside chance of an absolute majority, but it seems unlikely. Quite sad.

[RogueBeaver]

She's already promised an early election if a minority. Once the corruption inquiry reports... that'll do the work for her.

[Talleyrand]

She's already promised an early election if a minority. Once the corruption inquiry reports... that'll do the work for her.

Could that boot the Liberals from the official opposition too, possibly?

[Poirot]

In Eastern townships and south of quebec city, the Liberal vote seems to be holding so far.

[Zanas]

400 votes and 4 pts ahead for Cardin vs Charest in Sherbrooke now. Seems like Charest won't be the leader of that strong PLQ opposition...

[Marokai Backbeat]

She's already promised an early election if a minority. Once the corruption inquiry reports... that'll do the work for her.

Could that boot the Liberals from the official opposition too, possibly?

I doubt it, but I'm no expert. In the (increasingly likely) event of another election around the corner, I suspect the CAQ (PQ would probably tone down sovereigntist rhetoric in that event) and QS vote would drop and the ON vote would probably almost entirely evaporate. If anything it would be just enough to bump the PQ into weak majority territory, it wouldn't change the current Liberal share that much. They're stubborn as hell.

[後援会]

Legault is in. Charest is out.

[RogueBeaver]

LBB delivered his victory speech. Gaetan Barrette (i.e. the "fat doctor") is defeated.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest is almost certainly defeated though no projection yet, trailing by about 1000 votes with roughly 1/3 of precincts reporting.

[adma]

...what happens if the PQ fail to hit 63 and the CAQ/PLQ combined also fail to hit 63? Could we be looking a total disaster?

Easy.  Quebec Solidaire can prop up the PQ minority.

[RogueBeaver]

David elected in Gouin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liberals have lost Bonaventure. Was that widely predicted? Most of their other base ridings have stuck with them.

[RogueBeaver]

They also lost Argenteuil by a bigger margin than in the by-election.

[Zanas]

It's getting tougher and tougher to hope for a PQ majority or even a PQ-QS majority. QS will stick at 2, and PQ is heading towards 58 or 59, not less, not more.

[RogueBeaver]

Networks have already projected a PQ minority.