Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

Networks just projected Charest's defeat in Sherbrooke. BOOM.

[Poirot]

there is not a big difference between first and second in number of seats. I guess it's true the PLQ starts an election with 40 seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper has just released a statement congratulating Marois on her victory.

[LastVoter]

Hopefully this coalition won't last until the next Federal election.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest about to give his concession speech.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest conceded but isn't resigning the Liberal leadership tonight. Marois will be asked to form a government tomorrow, making her premier-designate. Swearing-in roughly 2 weeks from now. New Assembly convenes in mid-October.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Only 56 seats... Meh. It's going to be a pretty frail government. But at least, Québec is rid from Charest, probably for good.

[RogueBeaver]

Some commentators are suggesting (just opinions, no scoops) Charest might not resign, instead seek a safer seat... but IMO that's doubtful. He's gone.

Antonio: 2007 was almost as narrow seats-wise. Only 1% difference in PV.

[RogueBeaver]

Shots were fired outside the arena where Marois was speaking. Police have the suspect in custody, building evacuated and Marois whisked away. No injuries.

[MaxQue]

The shooter also started a fire behind that arena.
Finally, the building wasn't evacuated and Marios insisted to come back finish her speech.

[MaxQue]

The fire was apparently caused by an explosion, so, it is called a bombing by the press.
The bomber shouted, in French, with an English accent, "The English are waking up", media is reporting.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

CBC is reporting it was a starter pistol that was fired.

[MaxQue]

Two injuried, in critical state.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well, according to CBC, the final numbers are:

PQ - 54
QLP - 50
CAQ - 19
QS - 2

I definitely overestimated the amount of people who would jump ship from the Liberals.  And even PQ didn't do as well as I'd thought.  The big loser tonight was really CAQ, who underperformed most everyone's prediction, and QLP should be happy they performed as well as they did.

[MaxQue]

Some Anglo radio is reporting than there is 1 fatality.

EDIT: Police is confirming.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

CBC has confirmed one death.

[Meeker]

Tragic and disturbing.

[BigSkyBob]

Well, according to CBC, the final numbers are:

PQ - 54
QLP - 50
CAQ - 19
QS - 2

I definitely overestimated the amount of people who would jump ship from the Liberals.  And even PQ didn't do as well as I'd thought.  The big loser tonight was really CAQ, who underperformed most everyone's prediction, and QLP should be happy they performed as well as they did.

The big loser tonight is really the PQ. They expected a  governing majority, with or without QS, but, ended up with little more than a mandate to organize trash collection at the sufferage of the PLQ/CAQ majority. The CAQ won over 27% of the vote as expected. Like the PQ, they didn't win as many seats as expected because the PLQ won more seats than expected. Unlike the CAQ, the PQ failed to reach their expected vote percentage.

Presumably, one of the first acts of the PQ will be, essentially, an inquiry as to whether the PLQ was a bunch of crooks. The CAQ would have every reason to let that investigation go forward unimpeded.  If the PLQ is shown to have been a bunch of crooks, exactly which party is going to lead the charge against separatism in the next election? 

[Smid]

2012 Quebec Provincial Election


Bigger version in the gallery. I've used Earl's expanded colour scale (thanks, mate!).

Numbers are based off the CBC map (clicking on each riding), so there may be some slight inaccuracies.

[MaxQue]

In better news, the turnout is finally 74%, the highest since 1998.

[BigSkyBob]

Were you beaten up by a sovereigntist as a kid or something?

Actually, I was rooting for the referendum the last time it came to a vote. Unfortunately, something like 40% of Francophones and almost all of the English speakers voted against. Since then, support has only eroded. Jean Charest correctly noted that the future of Quebec is as a part of Canada. This election only confirms that fact. I suppose there is something romantic in pursuing a hopeless cause.

In any case, Sovereignty won't alter Quebec's linguistic destiny. While in a hundred years the language spoken there might be called "French," it will be Franglais at best. Force majeure isn't going to change that fact.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Yeah, PQ were losers tonight as well, compared to what they "should" have gotten, but I'm reluctant to call them a loser if they still get to form a government.

[Meeker]

Yeah, PQ were losers tonight as well, compared to what they "should" have gotten, but I'm reluctant to call them a loser if they still get to form a government.

Indeed. A party that formed a government for the first time in a decade is definitely not a "loser".

[Smid]

Yeah, PQ were losers tonight as well, compared to what they "should" have gotten, but I'm reluctant to call them a loser if they still get to form a government.

Indeed. A party that formed a government for the first time in a decade is definitely not a "loser".

They're more a Steven Bradbury winner.

[Zanas]

After a short night, I wake up to see the figures having frozen at 54 PQ, 50 PLQ, 19 CAQ and 2 QS. How much of a government can these figures can allow ? I heard that the PQ could not be very eager to try and recall elections as it should well be that they would in fact lose seats from this one.

And isn't the PLQ likely to want to form government on its own with support from the CAQ (I know it's antinatural, but still), with only four seats less than the PQ ?

It surely isn't a victory for anyone except maybe QS who got one more deputy, but their vote share stayed at 6 whereas they were aiming at nearly 10. It's not a victory for the Liberals either, but it might be the closest thing...