Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'm going with a PQ minority government and a Liberal Official Opposition.  I think we'll see a good showing from CAQ, which will keep PQ from a majority.  Although, if it's close, it'll be interesting to see if there is some sort of coalition government with PQ and Québec solidaire.  But PQ would have to just barely fall short of 63 for that to happen.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'm going with a PQ minority government and a Liberal Official Opposition.  I think we'll see a good showing from CAQ, which will keep PQ from a majority.  Although, if it's close, it'll be interesting to see if there is some sort of coalition government with PQ and Québec solidaire.  But PQ would have to just barely fall short of 63 for that to happen.

There'd never be a "coalition" involving QS surely. They strike me as one of those parties which bases its whole rhetoric on not being the establishment.

Every anti-establishment candidate/party says that, but when faced with actually achieving the results you want, even the most ardent principle-based people can cave.  And with such strong rhetoric coming from PQ, if a coalition with QS would give PQ a majority government, I think QS could be swayed to form such a coalition.

Now, hopefully the elecction is nowhere close to that and sanity can prevail and the Liberals keep enough seats to keep PQ from a majority, but it's going to be close.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'm gonna go gutsy in my numbers and switch up my official opposition to CAQ.  I think enough Liberals are going to jump ship to avoid a PQ majority that'll push CAQ to win ridings they otherwise wouldn't.

PQ: 62
CAQ: 31
QLP: 30
QS: 2

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Someone asked for links to livestreams earlier.

I'm not sure when they'll go live, but here they are:

CBC: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012

CTV: http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.941210

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

CBC is reporting it was a starter pistol that was fired.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well, according to CBC, the final numbers are:

PQ - 54
QLP - 50
CAQ - 19
QS - 2

I definitely overestimated the amount of people who would jump ship from the Liberals.  And even PQ didn't do as well as I'd thought.  The big loser tonight was really CAQ, who underperformed most everyone's prediction, and QLP should be happy they performed as well as they did.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

CBC has confirmed one death.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Yeah, PQ were losers tonight as well, compared to what they "should" have gotten, but I'm reluctant to call them a loser if they still get to form a government.