So, I've actually been following this election, just not on this site, and I've decided to post here, my probably final (and sort of elaborate) seat-by-seat predictions, along with margins, and, in most seats, the second-place. The ridings are organized by region and alphabetically (the way Wikipedia does). Highlights:
- PQ win a minority government. They are in the mid-50s and even if they form some sort of deal with the smaller sovereigntist left-wing parties they are still short of a majority.
- QS wins Mercier and Gouin by double-digits, but doesn't come close anywhere else, though they come in second in a few other ridings. Ultimately, 2008 was an embarrasingly good result for this party and unfortunately they'll do even better this time.
- ON wins Nicolet-Becancour.
- Charest just barely ekes out a win in Sherbrooke. The PLQ get just short of 40 seats, a better result than expected, and become the Opposition.
- The CAQ get 30 seats. Legault wins in l'Assomption. The CAQ gets a good result, all in all.
- Ultimately...every single party in the Assembly can spin this result as a victory, which is kind of weird. Hardest of all to do so for the Liberals, but hey – everybody thought we'd do even worse!
Bas-Saint-Laurent and Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine:
Bonaventure: Damien Arsenault (PLQ) defeats challenger Sylvain Roy (PQ) by 2%
Cote-du-Sud: Francois Lagace (CAQ) defeats Norbert Morin (PLQ) by 6-7%
Gaspe: Gaetan Lelievre (PQ) defeats Georges Mamelonet (PLQ) by 17-18%
Iles-de-la-Madeleine: Jeannine Richard (PQ) defeats Germain Chevarie (PLQ) by 6%
Matane-Matapedia: Pascal Berube (PQ) defeats challenger Jean-Clement Ouellet (PLQ) by 28%
Rimouski: Irvin Pelletier (PQ) defeats challenger Raymond Giguere (PLQ) by 18%
Riviere-du-Loup-Temiscouata: Jean d'Amour (PLQ) defeats challenger Michel Lagace (PQ) by 17-18%
Regional Total:
PQ: 4
PLQ: 2
CAQ: 1
Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 4
PLQ: 2
CAQ: 1
Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean and Cote-Nord:
Chicoutimi: Stephane Bedard (PQ) defeats challenger Carol Neron (PLQ) by 18%
Dubuc: Jean-Marie Claveau (PQ) defeats Serge Simard (PLQ) by 10%
Duplessis: Lorraine Richard (PQ) defeats challenger Lise Pelletier (PLQ) by 25%
Jonquiere: Sylvain Gaudreault (PQ) defeats challenger Pierre-Olivier Simard (CAQ) by 23%
Lac-Saint-Jean: Alexandre Cloutier (PQ) defeats challenger Jeannot Boulianne (PLQ) by 32-33%
Rene-Levesque: Marjolain Dufour (PQ) defeats challenger Pascal Chouinard (PQ) by 34%
Roberval: Denis Trottier (PQ) defeats challenger Georges Simard (PLQ) by 13%
Regional Total:
PQ: 7
Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 11
PLQ: 2
CAQ: 1
Capite-Nationale:
Charlesbourg: Denise Trudel (CAQ) defeats Michel Pigeon (PLQ) by less than 1%
Charlevoix-Cote-de-Beaupre: Pauline Marois (PQ) defeats challenger Ian Latremouille (CAQ) by 16%
Chauveau: Gerard Deltell (CAQ) defeats challenger Marie-Eve Picard-Bedard (PLQ) by 24%
Jean-Lesage: Andre Drolet (PLQ) defeats PQ and CAQ challengers tied for 2nd place by 6%
Jean-Talon: Yves Bolduc (PLQ) defeats Neko Likongo (PQ) by 16%
La Peltrie: Eric Caire (CAQ) defeats challenger Jean-Francois Gosselin (PLQ) by 18%
Louis-Hebert: Sam Hamad (PLQ) defeats challenger Michel Hamel (CAQ) by 8%
Montmorency: Michelyne St-Laurent (CAQ) defeats Raymond Bernier (PLQ) by 9-10%
Portneuf: Jacques Marcotte (CAQ) defeats Michel Matte (PLQ) by 16-17%
Taschereau: Agnes Maltais (PQ) defeats Clement Gignac (PLQ) by 13%
Vanier-Les Rivieres: Sylvain Levesque (CAQ) defeats Patrick Huot (PLQ) by 10-11%
Regional Total:
CAQ: 6
PLQ: 3
PQ: 2
Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 13
CAQ: 7
PLQ: 5
Mauricie:
Champlain: Noella Champagne (PQ) defeats challenger Pierre Jackson (CAQ) by 6-7%
Laviolette: Julie Boulet (PLQ) defeats challenger Andre Beaudoin (PQ) by 19%
Maskinonge: Jean-Paul Diamond (PLQ) defeats challenger Patrick Lahaie (PQ) by 1%
Saint-Maurice: Luc Trudel (PQ) defeats Robert Pilotte (PLQ) by 8%
Trois-Rivieres: Djemila Benhabib (PQ) defeats Danielle St-Amand (PLQ) by 2%
Regional Total:
PQ: 3
PLQ: 2
Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 16
CAQ: 7
PLQ: 7
Estrie:
Megantic: Gloriane Blais (PQ) defeats Ghislain Bolduc (PLQ) by 3-4%
Orford: Pierre Reid (PLQ) defeats challenger Michel Breton (PQ) by 8%
Richmond: Etienne-Alexis Boucher (PQ) defeats Karine Vallieres (PLQ) by 10%
Saint-Francois: Rejean Hebert (PQ) defeats Nathalie Goguen (PLQ) by 12%
Sherbrooke: Jean Charest (PLQ) defeats challenger Serge Cardin (PQ) by less than 1%
Regional Total:
PQ: 3
PLQ: 2
Overall Total So Far:
PQ: 19
PLQ: 9
CAQ: 7
