Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't tell, do you have the ADQ winning any seats?

Clearly the CAQ would win many of the seats the ADQ did in 2007.

[Hatman 🍁]

any word on when that by-election will be?

[Hatman 🍁]

Great. What colour are we supposed to use for them on maps? Between the PQ, Liberals and ADQ, it seems every possible shade of red and blue are taken.

[Hatman 🍁]

308 is using purple, so it might be the colour I'll use. When else has purple been used for Canadian election maps? My 1997 Elections Canada map had the Bloc as purple.

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh. Are you familiar with the Quebec-Labrador boundary dispute?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, kaka means poop, is that what you're trying to get at? Interestingly, I think the term is used more in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

It should be noted that the Bonaventure portion of the federal riding its in was the most pro NDP part.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is my by-election preview: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/12/bonaventure-provincial-by-election.html

[Hatman 🍁]

3 polls in

Arsenault, Damien (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   36   54,55 %   15
Roy, Sylvain (P.Q.)   21   31,82 %   
Chartier, Patricia (Q.S.)   3   4,55 %   
Painchaud, Georges (A.D.Q.)   3   4,55 %   
Cloutier, Jean (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   2   3,03 %   
Zibeau, Martin (IND)   1   1,52 %   

[Hatman 🍁]

Good news for the PQ and QS, mediocre news for the Liberals and more bad news for the ADQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, thanks Max. Something to post over Christmas.

There are also 2 by-elections coming up in BC.

[Hatman 🍁]

Western Quebec sure has some interesting ridings. Merci, Max!

[Hatman 🍁]

Even though no party matches my views either in Quebec, I would still vote if I lived there. (living in Quebec is always an option, as rent tends to be cheaper, but part of me is uncomfortable with the idea)

Also, talk about ironic considering how much choice there is...

[Hatman 🍁]

What about a small party? There is Conservative Party and a Christian Party. Maybe you could run as a candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

They're more of a centre-right party. But heaven forbid a Tory vote for a party called the Liberals.  But then again, I don't blame anyone for not doing so.

[Hatman 🍁]

my refusal to vote Liberal has nothing to do with the party label.

I think that goes without saying, my comment was more tongue in cheek.

Although to suggest they are operating within the "orange model" is ridiculous. That is if you are suggesting they are a social democratic party. They are not. Jean Charest is every bit a Red Tory, and you should know that.

Now if you want to talk about Red Tories and social democracy, I know someone who claims Danny Williams is a social democrat. But that's a different story.

[Hatman 🍁]

That traitor... he used to play for the Senators (our first captain, no less!)

[Hatman 🍁]

*Facepalm*

http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/gets+assist+from+Habs/5884884/story.html

This was being talked about on SportsCenter yesterday. I can imagine it must have been discussed at length on SportsCentre.

I did read about it in our right wing rag of a newspaper my parents still get (the Ottawa Sun). But it was in the sports section, and I think generally that section tends to be apolitical.

[Hatman 🍁]

The history of the Canadiens is wrapped in politics. Richard riots anyone?

[Hatman 🍁]

OK, I admit I ROFLed there.

On another note, a 3-way race is shaping up. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can try a projection for us?

http://www2.canada.com/story.html?id=5998836

Not yet; I'm going to focus on Alberta at the moment. All three upcoming provincial elections are going to be hard to predict because of the emergence of three "new" parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

OK, I admit I ROFLed there.

On another note, a 3-way race is shaping up. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can try a projection for us?

http://www2.canada.com/story.html?id=5998836

I trust Volkov:
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/quebec-la-post-2011-and-equipe.html

who also has an Alberta projection FTR
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/alberta-in-2012.html

and not only uses his successful system but mine from my old Riding by Riding website
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
which was the most successful of the last federal election (and the last BC election too)

I see that he's stolen my idea by using maps. The ironic thing is, that he is using my Wikipedia base maps (that I made) that I have abandoned for my site.  By the way, did he do provincial predictions in the Fall? I want to compare with him, to see if my claim as the best predicting site holds any water.

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent. I still did far better than him. I should've known; partisan Liberals really overemphasized how well their party was going to fair.

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent. I still did far better than him. I should've known; partisan Liberals really overemphasized how well their party was going to fair.

Yeah, I predicted a PC minority until like the last 24 hours. I really overestimated our strength.

You're... different....; you're like me and down play your party's strengths.

He's partisan?

Sarcasm?

[Hatman 🍁]

The Beauce area seems ripe for some sort of right wing party. I suppose CAQ will win there though, and a Quebec Conservative party wouldn't appeal to them in the same way?

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't classify the rest of Quebec as politically homogenous. The Chaudiere-Appalaches region is quite Libertarian (strongest in the Beauce). The rest of Quebec is generally left wing, except on certain issues (health care and immigration for example). Of course a Libertarian leaning party such as the ADQ and CAQ would be able to unite these two parts, but the Tories (and the NDP) can only do well in certain parts. Luckily for the NDP, their are more parts that can appeal to them than the Tories. However, if the Tories get a better leader, they can win these NDP areas. But, they don't need to.