Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Zanas]

I took the Vote compass test and this is what I got :
- ON and QS 83% (but closer to QS on the chart)
- Green 75%
- PQ 70%
- Caq 48%
- PLQ 32%

I'm a little bit surprised and amused that I agree more with the right-wing Caq than with the flabby-leftish PLQ, but I tend to hate the party in power.

Just a question : I had read a few things about this Option nationale thingy, but could you describe it to me ? I seem to agree with them on many topics, might as well know who they are and where they're from ideologically...

[Zanas]

i just find there are too many fish in the Left-wing sea

Isn't there always ?... U_U'

[Zanas]

Taschereau (Quebec downtown)
PQ 41 (incumbent), PLQ 19 (minister for economical development, currently MNA in Montreal), QS 16, CAQ 16, ON 7, Others 1

A few pages earlier on this thread I thought it had been said that Québec was quite a conservative city, so I don't really understand. Could someone tell me who represents Québec now, downtown and suburbs, and what have been the evolutions recently ? Because PQ at 41, QS at 16 and ON at 7 doesn't seem to make that a conservative place...

[Zanas]

I will go with ON 1, QS 2, PQ 64, CAQ 30, PLQ 28. I think we've seen the CAQ slowly overtaking the PLQ in the latest polls, and I've read here and there that even among Anglo voters lots were considering voting CAQ. I guess this could mean a similar defeat for the PLQ to that when the PQ was thrown out of even Official opposition by the ADQ back in 2007.

I also think (and _strongly_ hope) that Charest will be thrown out, but you never know with that kind of douchebags...

[Zanas]

For now, there is a debate on the FPTP system, and several of the people on the set advocate proportional representation.

[Zanas]

For now the figures for the popular vote are given as : PQ 32,2 ; PLQ 31,5 ; CAQ 29,1 ; QS 4,6.

Doesn't seem so easy for anyone for the moment... :-S

[Zanas]

Charest is 2 votes ahead of Cardin in Sherbrooke but it's only a few polls counted.

[Zanas]

And the PLQ now taking the lead in both popular vote and "in advance" seats... I do not like that at all...

[Zanas]

Now they give : PLQ 33,9 ; PQ  31,6 ; CAQ 27,6...

[Zanas]

For whom ?

[Zanas]

It is again a bit better for the PQ now. Even Cardin leads by 3 votes over Charest in Sherbrooke ! lol

Anyways it's really really close nearly everywhere, so it will keep going up and down. Only thing we can tell is that it's gonna be a PLQ-PQ race, CAQ being a lot lower.

[Zanas]

Both leaders of QS are in the lead in their riding.

I think the PQ can still get a majority, but the PLQ will get a strong opposition.

[Zanas]

Charest now is 90 votes, that's 2 %, behind the PQ.

Figures now show 61 elected or in the lead for PQ and 2 for QS, which could mean a majority with QS in the balance of power.

This election night is fascinating, I'm really thrilled to be following it !

edit : now 180 votes and 3 pts...

[Zanas]

...what happens if the PQ fail to hit 63 and the CAQ/PLQ combined also fail to hit 63? Could we be looking a total disaster?

You wouldn't have a PLQ-CAQ coalition government anyway. The most likely outcome would be a new election immediately after.

[Zanas]

400 votes and 4 pts ahead for Cardin vs Charest in Sherbrooke now. Seems like Charest won't be the leader of that strong PLQ opposition...

[Zanas]

It's getting tougher and tougher to hope for a PQ majority or even a PQ-QS majority. QS will stick at 2, and PQ is heading towards 58 or 59, not less, not more.

[Zanas]

After a short night, I wake up to see the figures having frozen at 54 PQ, 50 PLQ, 19 CAQ and 2 QS. How much of a government can these figures can allow ? I heard that the PQ could not be very eager to try and recall elections as it should well be that they would in fact lose seats from this one.

And isn't the PLQ likely to want to form government on its own with support from the CAQ (I know it's antinatural, but still), with only four seats less than the PQ ?

It surely isn't a victory for anyone except maybe QS who got one more deputy, but their vote share stayed at 6 whereas they were aiming at nearly 10. It's not a victory for the Liberals either, but it might be the closest thing...