Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Poirot]

La Presse newspaper reports Charest would like to start the campaign August 1st for a vote on September 4th (a Tuesday after Labour Day).

A campaign during summer? I hope politicians don't complain if people are cynical about politics or if the voter turnout is low.

The article says Clément Gignac is changing riding and will run in Québec City, possibly in Taschereau against PQ Agnès Maltais. On the new electoral map the riding is less PQ. Transposed result show it would have been 12,783 PQ votes to 11,188 PLQ 

[Poirot]

I have trouble deciding which of the 5 scenarios will happen. I feel anything can happen.

In case some didn't know about the 2008 election results according to the 2012 ridings, you can find them at this location. It is a pdf, maybe it exists in other format and since I can't post links you have to add the www before

electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

[Poirot]

The PQ candidate in Sherbrooke is former Bloc MP Serge Cardin, so they have not chosen a sacrificial lamb.

The PLQ was the only party to oppose the proposal of having voting stations on campuses to increase youth voting. Without unanimity it won't happen this time.

I wonder if it will be difficult to get students coming study in Sherbrooke to register in that riding. I don't know what will be the dates for voting list revision and changes but if the election is Sept. 4, many students start classes August 27, it could be just when they are arriving in town. Not much time for student associations to inform them about voting rules. Students will have to change their permanent domicile address because there has been a rule change.  People like students will no longer be able to register on the list of electors of their temporary place of residence.   

[Poirot]

Again, everyone who's anyone has left this government.

They will need to recruit cabinet material women candidates. Over one year, Courchesne, Gagnon-Tremblay, Beauchamp, Normandeau have left politics.

I have noticed over the last two weeks the PLQ has chosen many candidates who are town mayors or councillors.

I think the PQ needs some economic star candidate(s) to have more credentials in that area.

     

[Poirot]

A radio station in Quebec City is backing an independent candidate to represent the silent majority, people who wake up early and work hard. They chose the riding of Vanier and let people chose the candidate among people interested in running. A former ADQ MNA was chosen.

 

[Poirot]

We will get one than more debate this time. One with 4 leaders (the fourth is QS Françoise David) on August 19th on Radio-Canada and Télé-Québec.

TVA is doing a new debate format. One on one on three consecutive nights. On the 20th Marois-Charest, 21th Legault-Charest, 22th Legault-Marois.

The first Léger marketing poll of the campaign (done pre-campaign) shows a tight two-way race. 33% PQ, 31% PLQ, 21% CAQ, 7% QS.
PLQ is leading in Quebec City area with 37 % to 26 for CAQ. 44% of people in that region also believe the Liberals will form next government. Results to all the questions can be found at their webpage.

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/ElectionQuebec2012_sondage%20QMI%201_final.pdf

 

[Poirot]

Hey, can I have a quick overview of Quebec politics, and this year's election more specifically?

The Quebec Liberal party has been in power since 2003. For the last year or two, polls show two thirds of the population not satisfied with the government. There has been ethic issues. Jean Charest is a good campaigner.

So there is a desire for change. The opposition's PQ leader Pauline Marois has not been able to capitalize on this. She probably doesn't connect much with voters and has had to fight party infighting.

The Coalition Avenir Québec is a new party started by a former PQ minister. He pledged no   referendum on independence for 10 years. The third party was the ADQ, a centre right party, and it merged with the CAQ. A few (I think it's three) sitting MNA's also joined CAQ. They represent change more.

The has been a student strike because of tutiton fees hike since last Spring and street protests against the law. The Liberals want to make the ballot issue about the student conflict rather than their record.

There is no great love for any of the three main leaders right now. It's who you dislike the least or who you don't want to win. There are also smaller parties.

[Poirot]

It will be interesting to see what effect Jacques Duchesneau running for the CAQ in Saint-Jérôme will have. How much will it help the CAQ. Will it hurt more the PQ or PLQ.

La Presse has a map made from the political donor's list.
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/carte-du-financement-politique-au-quebec/?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_hotTopics_sujets-a-la-une_1664122_accueil_POS1

[Poirot]

She doesn't have a degree.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source:
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/commission-charbonneau/201110/28/01-4462477-lise-theriault-la-femme-qui-fait-trembler-la-ftq.php

[Poirot]

I think the leaders all did a good job for their supporters.

I think it's risky for the NDP to have a provincial wing. It could create friction with other provincial parties and then ask for their vote on the federal level. It could mostly serve as an alternative for the non-francophone voters who feel hostage to LPQ.

[Poirot]

friction? how so? each prov wing as it is now is pretty independant other then the federal ties, thats the "tie that binds" so to speak

Every provincial party targeting left of center voters feeling other parties are hurting their chances, creating rivalries. Like PQ and QS now, or Option Nationale. If there is a federalist NDP Quebec, maybe QS people will be hesitant to help federal NDP.

An editorial from La Presse on a possible NDP-Quebec.
http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/editoriaux/francois-cardinal/201208/20/01-4566668-un-npd-quebec.php

It mentions a Léger poll from a year ago, 34% would be willing to vote for a NDP Quebec. I went to look for it and it was the ADQ (surprinsingly) and QS voters who were the most receptive.   

[Poirot]

A poll showing PLQ in front? Really? Strange that stories seems to be about them losing voters. Maybe the threat of referendum is working to bring back traditonal liberal voters.

Or the PLQ is not really gaining but the PQ is losing votes to QS (if done post debate) and CAQ.

The Liberal calling for strategic voting looks to be a black sheep in the party. He wanted an inquiry on the construction industry.

[Poirot]

You could always vote Parti Nul. Fringe group running in only 10 ridings. It doesn't have a platform, they are there for voters to show discontent, like a none of the above. Instead of not voting they offer a way to show dissatisfaction.

[Poirot]

News for map lovers! Interactive map fom La Presse website showing 2008 results. You can show map with old ridings or the new map ridings.

If you want to see the province with the new ridings and results by voting division, you click Section de votes 2008 in Superficies à colorier. You can change and check if you are with 2008 boundaries or new ones with the bar Avec bordures de circonscription at the bottom of the menu. 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/carte-interactive-des-elections-provinciales-2008/

[Poirot]

Sherbrooke riding poll (August 20-23) has PQ Cardin 45%, Charest 33%, CAQ 10, QS 7, ON 3, PV 2.  

http://www.lapresse.ca/la-tribune/sherbrooke/201208/23/01-4567733-charest-peine-a-retrecir-lecart-dans-sherbrooke.php

I would like to see results without undecideds because I guess they will break more Charest's way. QS + ON at 10% is still a potential for PQ to rally more anti-Charest vote.

[Poirot]

Found 2 errors in the Chapleau riding where the Greens "won" massively while the Liberals got 1 or 0 votes in a safe Liberal ridings.

An error in data switiching Lib and Green I imagine. I hope the map is not full of mistakes.

[Poirot]

The poll has a 4% margin of error so the gap could not be as big. The result before undecideds is 38% Cardin, 28% Charest. Charest could take a bigger share of the 13% of undecided / don't want to answer. He leads with older voters who tend to vote more so he could gain a few percentages there too.

[Poirot]

On his twitter account, Léger lists 13 ridings with three way races.

Argenteuil, Laporte, Maskinongé, Nicolet-Bécancour, Soulanges, Trois-Rivières

Laval: Fabre, Laval-des-Rapides, Mille-Iles, Vimont
Quebec city: Jean-Lesage, Jean-Talon, Louis-Hébert

[Poirot]

It's not clear to me if Leger actually conducted riding polls in those seats or if is basing that on extrapolations of his poll results by sites like too close to call or 308.

I think it's based on his regional poll results and analysis of past results.
The Laval ridings listed have 20% or more people with mother tongue other than French which gives a good base to be competitive.

Louis-Hébert and Jean-Talon are held by cabinet ministers. Jean-Talon is considered a safe Liberal seat. The riding limits have changed though.

I wasn't expected to see Laporte (on the south shore of Montreal) in this list. Only 70% have French mother tongue. I looked at the result of 2007 that gave a liberal minority and Liberals won it 41-25-24.   

[Poirot]

Forum did three riding polls in the eastern townships, margin of error is around 4,5%.

Sherbrooke: 41 PQ, 39 PLQ, 11 CAQ
Orford: 36 PLQ, 35 PQ, 22 CAQ
Saint-François: 39 PQ 37 PLQ 16 CAQ

Segma also polled Saint-François and it has PQ with a big lead, 46% to 26% for PLQ and 18% CAQ.

The Journal de Montréal wrote about the fierce battle in the Montreal suburbs (area code 450). The many close races there will determine the outcome. On the radio Jean Lapierre said he was given a Léger poll done in La Prairie riding with the PQ at 35%, CAQ 32% and PLQ 22%. The projection websites don't show this riding that close, perhaps it means the CAQ keeps rising in the suburbs.

[Poirot]

There was a long article about the Quebec City mystery" a few days ago. It seems to be a combination of people in suburban QC resenting their neighbours who work for the Quebec government (there are two solitudes in QC, if you are a civil servant you hate CAQ/CPC and if you are NOT a civil servant you resent the people who are), that plus for some reason there are some very rightwing populist talk radio hosts in QC that seem to have a major influence on people.

I think this is the article:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/mystery-quebec-city-potential-world-capital-chooses-not-080508427.html

[Poirot]

La Presse has endorsed the PLQ while also casting the CAQ as an acceptable alternative. Le Devoir endorsed the PQ, NP the CAQ, G&M PLQ.

Le Droit (Gatineau-Ottawa) has endorsed PLQ. I think Le Soleil (Quebec City) gives the choice between PLQ and CAQ but says people should consider the capital was well treated by the government, the mayor had a great relationship with the premier, and PLQ ministers running in Louis-Hébert and Jean-Talon deserve support of citizens.

La Presse, Le Soleil, Le Droit are Gesca/ Power Corp newspapers.

The National Post is for CAQ? I would imagine they are against their economic nationalism, intervention in the economy and Caisse, hike in capital gains and dividend tax, and spending promises.

[Poirot]

The Montreal Gazette is for CAQ

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't know if this is a sign the PLQ vote could go even lower if the anglos start to abandon it. Legault is now using the anti-referendum card that Charest usually uses.

La Tribune endorsed Charest as candidate for the Sherbrooke riding.

[Poirot]

I will go with 60 PQ, 32 PLQ, 31 CAQ, 2 QS.

If the PQ wins a minority, is the party being official opposition matter on the stability and duration of government. I mean the CAQ will probably be more eager to have another election than PLQ so maybe they would fit more in official opposition role.

[Poirot]

Do you have the second polls done in Saguenay Lac Saint-Jean at the end of August.
http://www.segmarecherche.ca/Sondages/RapportSagLac30-08-12.pdf

CAQ had moved in second place in 4 out of 5 ridings.

Chicoutimi: PQ 47 CAQ 24 PLQ 19
Dubuc: PQ 44 CAQ 25 PLQ 23
Jonquière: PQ 51 CAQ 27 PLQ 15
Lac St-Jean: PQ 57 CAQ 20 PLQ 15
Roberval: PQ 46 CAQ 20 PLQ 29

They had Bonaventure also at end of August. It is usually Liberal but it's not sure now. Charest was there in the last days of the campaign. With 4,4% marging of error it is statistical tie.
PQ 41 CAQ 17 PLQ 34

http://www.segmarecherche.ca/Sondages/Rapport_BOI2708_2012-08-29.pdf


Also Segma had Brome-Missisquoi.
http://www.lapresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201208/29/01-4569085-brome-missisquoi-une-lutte-corsee-en-vue.php

PQ 30,6 CAQ 32,4 PLQ 27 so all three within margin of error.
The Liberal MNA has been there for decades.

I think the PQ has realeased 2 internal polls in Terrebonne to show them in the lead against CAQ health star candidate. Not sure if it's reliable or it is strategy. I think one was done by Crop and the other one by Repère.