The Rocky Mountain poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center, is similar to the Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania. It doesn't really push the leaners, but in general is really accurate:
Let's analyze...
Their RV poll had Brewer up by 3, LV poll was Brewer up by 11, which should probably say something about screening process. It was conducted from October 1-10, so it is, at least somewhat fresh.
The poll for Senate had McCain up 28, he won by 24. The poll for Attorney General was once again tied among RV, with Horne up by 4 in the LV poll. Horne won by 4.
That poll is from May 2008. Which is way too old to be using in judging a polling company's performance.
Even though you didn't bring up 2006, their last poll was equally ancient, July 2006.
Conducted October 5-October 14, so mildly fresh, at least, like 2010.
You missed 2002, where they conducted a weekly poll of the Governor's race every week up to the election. The last iteration had Napolitano up by 9 among RV and 10 among LV (ok...). She won by 1 point, though this was a strong third-party race, and therefore more difficult to poll.
Only 1 point lead among RV, the 3-point was among LV. Conducted between October 4 and 6, so somewhat fresh, as before.
Uh, Sam, you seem to have missed a few points.
Several things need to be said about BRC and its “polls.”
First, the Republican preferences for Presidential nominee are a joke as they are based on slightly over 200 respondents.
Second, BRC isn’t that accurate. To cite an example, their ‘poll” of the Arizona Governor’s race
http://www.brcpolls.com/10/RMP%202010-IV-01.pdf had Brewer at 38 %, Goddard at 35 %, Gist at 3 % and Hess at 3 %. In fact, of the 1,728,081 votes cast for Governor in 2010, 938,934 were cast for Brewer (54%) while 733,935 were cast for Goddard (42 %), 16,128 for Gist (1 %) and 38,722 for Hess (2 %). So their ‘poll’ understated Brewer’s vote by 16 points, and Goddard’s by 7 points, while overstating Gist by 2 points and Hess by 1 point. So, a 3 point lead in their ‘poll’ ended up a 12 point lead in the real world.
Third, to cite another example from 2010 (
http://www.brcpolls.com/10/RMP%202010-III-01.pdf) Earl (BRC) alleged that McCain would receive 64 % in the primary for the Republican Senate nomination, while Hayworth would receive 19 % and Deakin 5 %. Well the real results were McCain received 333,744 of the 593,301 votes cast (56 %), while Hayworth received 190,229 (32 %). So, a supposed 45 point lead was in fact a 24 point lead.
When you review Earl’s record, it can be summed up as ‘lean left.’
