AZ: Rocky Mountain: Arizona competetive next year (user search)
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  AZ: Rocky Mountain: Arizona competetive next year (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ: Rocky Mountain: Arizona competetive next year  (Read 3282 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« on: October 26, 2011, 08:10:58 PM »

The Rocky Mountain poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center, is similar to the Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania. It doesn't really push the leaners, but in general is really accurate:

Let's analyze...

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Their RV poll had Brewer up by 3, LV poll was Brewer up by 11, which should probably say something about screening process.  It was conducted from October 1-10, so it is, at least somewhat fresh.

The poll for Senate had McCain up 28, he won by 24.  The poll for Attorney General was once again tied among RV, with Horne up by 4 in the LV poll.  Horne won by 4.

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That poll is from May 2008.  Which is way too old to be using in judging a polling company's performance.

Even though you didn't bring up 2006, their last poll was equally ancient, July 2006.

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Conducted October 5-October 14, so mildly fresh, at least, like 2010.

You missed 2002, where they conducted a weekly poll of the Governor's race every week up to the election.  The last iteration had Napolitano up by 9 among RV and 10 among LV (ok...).  She won by 1 point, though this was a strong third-party race, and therefore more difficult to poll.

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Only 1 point lead among RV, the 3-point was among LV.  Conducted between October 4 and 6, so somewhat fresh, as before.
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