Pretty great numbers for Romney. Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama. It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions. GO MITT!
Yes...
A landslide where Romney can't even break 50% in a state the Democrats have only won once since the 1950s
Bill Clinton won the state (barely) in 1996. Goldwater barely won the state, and probably only because he was from Arizona. President Obama lost the state by less than the usual advantage (about 10%) for a state with a Favorite Son. That advantage not only appears with a Favorite Son but also disappears in the next election when the Favorite Son disappears. Look at the difference between Texas in 2004 and 2008 --- about a 10% gain for the Democrats even if they still lost the state decisively.
As a candidate, Barack Obama did not campaign in Arizona. Based on the slight McCain margin in 2008, Arizona looks like a legitimate swing state in 2012. Count on the President campaigning in Arizona this time, if only to aid the Democratic candidate for an open Senate seat.
President Obama stands to win a Clinton-scale victory (roughly 375 electoral votes) if he wins Arizona, which is consistent with him getting 53% of the popular vote -- which I don't see happening yet.
I am unfamiliar with Rocky Mountain Polling, but CNN seems to have no problem with it. I'd like to see corroboration. This could be a post-Qaddafi bounce, so it might not stick.
That didn't adjust for the national swing. The trend from 04 to 08 in Texas was 1.38% towards the Democrats - a trivial amount smaller than NH or PA's Republican trends that most people don't even realise happened. That's not to say that Bush's home state advantage was small or non-existent, just that there lots of other factors involved so it's hard to pinpoint exactly how much the home state advantage was.
