Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

first analysis: Pretty impressive by Gabay. There was one poll that got it pretty spot on. Bar Lev quitting would have made no difference.
It is going to be very very close next week

[danny]

Official results:
Peretz 10141 votes 32.72%
Gabay 8395 27.08%
Herzog 5204 16.79%
Margalit 4997 16.12%
Bar Lev 2147 6.93%
Ben Zakee didn't get it
Krovi 8 0%

turnout: 59% (+7% since 2013) 30998.
going to a second round next week

Ben Zaken 56 0.18%

[Hnv1]

Official results:
Peretz 10141 votes 32.72%
Gabay 8395 27.08%
Herzog 5204 16.79%
Margalit 4997 16.12%
Bar Lev 2147 6.93%
Ben Zakee didn't get it
Krovi 8 0%

turnout: 59% (+7% since 2013) 30998.
going to a second round next week

Ben Zaken 56 0.18%

Ha! suits that pompous nothing. 

I may have mixed up Bar Lev figures a bit, still can't find the detailed results online.

[DavidB.]

In all honesty Margalit was the candidate I was most afraid of in terms of potential electoral success, so I'm glad he didn't qualify for the runoff...

[danny]

Official results:
Peretz 10141 votes 32.72%
Gabay 8395 27.08%
Herzog 5204 16.79%
Margalit 4997 16.12%
Bar Lev 2147 6.93%
Ben Zakee didn't get it
Krovi 8 0%

turnout: 59% (+7% since 2013) 30998.
going to a second round next week

Ben Zaken 56 0.18%

Ha! suits that pompous nothing. 

I may have mixed up Bar Lev figures a bit, still can't find the detailed results online.

Your Bar Lev results are fine, I'm getting the results from Tal Schneiders twitter.

[danny]

Very Impressive from Gabbay going from a random guy to getting selected by Kachlon, to then somehow leveraging that into possibly leading the Labour party.

[America Needs R'hllor]

In the last hours, I received three or four negative messages against Margalit and one against Bar Lev. These are also the first negative sms I received about them, while the other 3 candidates, who I believe got none today, got a lot of negativity before election day. Cautious prediction- these two will outperform, especially Margalit.

I have a feeling these SMS messages against Margalit were from his HQ, perhaps an attempt to create a buzz...

[Hnv1]

Very Impressive from Gabbay going from a random guy to getting selected by Kachlon, to then somehow leveraging that into possibly leading the Labour party.

indeed. I think he could siphon more Margalit\Bar Lev\Herzog voters than Peretz.

[Hnv1]

A constitutional note: Gabay is not a MK and if he is elected he cannot act as the leader of the opposition and get the benefits the position grants him.

[DavidB.]

Who will you guys be voting for?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Who will you guys be voting for?

I think Hnv1 is a Meretz member so he can't vote in the Labour Primaries, but I'll be voting for Gabay. Peretz is just too corrupt and driven by identity politics.

[Hnv1]

Who will you guys be voting for?

I'm not a Labour member so I'm not voting. If I were I would be very unenthusiastic about them both. I don't think Peretz is corrupt or IdenPo (the old socialist that he is, is actually not fond of this narrative), but he also brings nothing new and I can't stand this brand of Israeli socialism-populism (and him personally). Gabay on the other hand is not really from the left and strikes me as politically incompetent.

Crushed against the wall I will reluctantly go with Gabay

[DavidB.]

Ah, for some reason I thought you were a Labour member too, but I should have known. How did Gabay leave Kulanu again? Will cooperation with Kulanu be easier or more difficult with Gabay at the helm of Labour?

As for Peretz, if he wins, Lapid should just make ads with this...


A May 26 Migron poll showed that all parties are still at roughly the same level as in the 2015 election, except that YA have taken about half of ZU's voters. GE15 in brackets.

30 [30] Likud
22 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [24] Zionist Union
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz
00 [–] Yaalon Party

[parochial boy]

Sorry to display my complete ignorance of Israeli politics, but given the way that demographics tend to vote, is it not surprising that there isn't really a party that combined stron on defence/nationalist rhetoric with economic populism?

I vaguely remember people getting excited about Shas a couple of years ago, but aren't they basically completely out of the question for anyone who isnt a Haredie Mizrahi?

[DavidB.]

Quite some non-Haredi Mizrahim vote for Shas; people who are "traditional" (i.e. who don't keep all the Jewish laws but who nonetheless find a certain level of observance to be important) and were inspired by the late Sephardic Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yosef have continued to vote for Shas too.

That said, yes, one would perhaps expect a more left-wing party economically competing for the votes of "hawkish", nationalist voters that are less well-off (which would mainly, but not exclusively, be Mizrahim, Russians and Ethiopians). I think there are a few explanations. The most important one, I think, is that much of the political debate on economic issues is overshadowed by a) the Arab-Israeli conflict and disagreement on the status and future of the areas that were taken over in 1967 and b) religion-state issues; ethnic and religious identity politics. This causes people who are strongly right-wing nationalists to vote for the right regardless of their economic program. Another explanation is that many of the abovementioned people feel highly emotionally attached to the Likud, as a family tradition. What's more, the political debate on economics in Israel in general takes place much less orderly and ideologically than in Western Europe, which a lot of populism, many soundbites and little ideological direction. This is not an explanation in itself, but it makes for an atmosphere in which politicians are more often distrusted and it is perhaps less clear how voting for a certain party will affect you financially (parties often lack manifestos too). Yet another explanation would be that the Israeli economy has been growing steadily for the last 30 years or so, with improving living conditions for most of the people in the abovementioned categories.

Arguably Labour and its predecessors had the profile you described for a long time in their history, at least before the First Intifada, though they lost most of the electorate you mentioned in the 70s already.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm certainly rooting for Gabay now, as a supporter of Kulanu, Yesh Atid, and Hatnuah. Of the three, I prefer Yesh Atid.

[Kingpoleon]

Poll of Labour's cadre:
Gabay 22%
Peretz 21%
Margalit 10%
Bar Lev 10%
Herzog 7% (lol)
Undecided 29%

Second round
Gabay 55%
Peretz 45%

Shame on margalit but at least Peretz misses out

This poll, when you take out undecideds from the overall percentage, was rather accurate for the first round.

[Famous Mortimer]

Weird, 2 Sephardic Jews running against each other in the Labor run-off. This is a bit like if the two main contenders for the GOP nomination were Herman Cain and Ben Carson. Well, probably not that weird, but a little weird.

I wonder if (Ashkenazi) turn out will be hurt as a result. Presumably the Ashkeanzis that do turn out will all support Gabay.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Weird, 2 Sephardic Jews running against each other in the Labor run-off. This is a bit like if the two main contenders for the GOP nomination were Herman Cain and Ben Carson. Well, probably not that weird, but a little weird.

I wonder if (Ashkenazi) turn out will be hurt as a result. Presumably the Ashkeanzis that do turn out will all support Gabay.

...No. If that were true, Gabay would win by a landslide. Ashkenazis are not white voters from Mississippi or something.
As for the turnour, I think there will be an overall decrease because some Herzog, Margalit or Bar Lev (lol) supporters will not bother voting, but I doubt that any Ashkenazi other than a few old racists care about the Labour candidate being sephardic.

[DavidB.]

The vast majority of Labour members are Ashkenazim and the fact that both candidates are Mizrahim is very unlikely to affect turnout since it just doesn't work like that, and plenty of Ashkenazi Labour members will be voting for Peretz too. What may affect turnout, however, is the fact that both candidates have their flaws and that there may be many Labour voters who aren't inspired by either of them.

[SATW]

I'm just glad Herzog lost.

[DavidB.]

I'm just glad Herzog lost.

Why? He was one of the better ones ideologically, and one of the worse ones electorally. Win-win.

[Kingpoleon]

Weird, 2 Sephardic Jews running against each other in the Labor run-off. This is a bit like if the two main contenders for the GOP nomination were Herman Cain and Ben Carson. Well, probably not that weird, but a little weird.

I wonder if (Ashkenazi) turn out will be hurt as a result. Presumably the Ashkeanzis that do turn out will all support Gabay.

...No. If that were true, Gabay would win by a landslide. Ashkenazis are not white voters from Mississippi or something.
As for the turnour, I think there will be an overall decrease because some Herzog, Margalit or Bar Lev (lol) supporters will not bother voting, but I doubt that any Ashkenazi other than a few old racists care about the Labour candidate being sephardic.

Please don't tell me this is a common view of Mississippi whites worldwide.

[Hnv1]

Weird, 2 Sephardic Jews running against each other in the Labor run-off. This is a bit like if the two main contenders for the GOP nomination were Herman Cain and Ben Carson. Well, probably not that weird, but a little weird.

I wonder if (Ashkenazi) turn out will be hurt as a result. Presumably the Ashkeanzis that do turn out will all support Gabay.

I found the 'Labour to be an Ashkenaz secluded stronghold' to be mainly a myth that does correlate with the reality of neither the voters or the membership. Anyway even in demographics where it might be be a factor (old kibbutz members) it will play a very minor role (Peretz already won in quite a lot of them against Peres). The sectarian tension between sephardi-ashkenaz is simply not really a big issue here, it's not remotely similar to the white-black tension in America as there is another significant "other" here. It more like Catholics-Protestants in some US states once.

[DavidB.]

Herzog and Margalit have endorsed Peretz.