Israel general discussion

[Famous Mortimer]

Would there ever be any chance of the Joint List propping up a leftist/non-Likud government?

I mean, I assume they are complete untouchables for any formal coalition, but would support from outside the government be a possibility? In which case a non-Likud coalition could govern with less than 60 MKs?

I know there are a few crazies in the Arab parties, but Odeh seems like a pretty reasonable guy.

It's unthinkable until it becomes a possibility and it happens. I will say that it's significantly more likely if Hadash MPs alone could put the government over 61.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who do Ethiopian Jews vote for?

[Famous Mortimer]

Who do Ethiopian Jews vote for?

Mostly Likud.

[Famous Mortimer]

A poll about whether there should be government that regulates the economy or free market economy without government regulation.

overall 56% support government regulation to 36% free market (8% no opinion), by supporters of each party:
Likud: 59-34-7
Zionist Union: 60-37-3
Yesh Atid: 43-43-13
Kulanu: 43-52-4
Jewish Home: 68-24-8
Haredi parties: 48-41-10
Yisrael Beitenu: 45-50-5
Meretz: 65-27-8

For some they don't list the Joint List, but they do mention that Arabs were 62 for government regulation. Women were more supportive of government regulation than men and there was no correlation with income.

What's the source for this? I really want to show someone the original article.

[danny]

A poll about whether there should be government that regulates the economy or free market economy without government regulation.

overall 56% support government regulation to 36% free market (8% no opinion), by supporters of each party:
Likud: 59-34-7
Zionist Union: 60-37-3
Yesh Atid: 43-43-13
Kulanu: 43-52-4
Jewish Home: 68-24-8
Haredi parties: 48-41-10
Yisrael Beitenu: 45-50-5
Meretz: 65-27-8

For some they don't list the Joint List, but they do mention that Arabs were 62 for government regulation. Women were more supportive of government regulation than men and there was no correlation with income.

What's the source for this? I really want to show someone the original article.

https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001217609

[danny]

Who do Ethiopian Jews vote for?

Kiryat Moshe in Rehovot is the only neighbourhood that I know of that has an Ethiopian majority and it voted 51% Likud 14% Kulanu 8% Shas.

[Hnv1]

Confirmed contenders in the Meretz primaries:
Zehava Galon - current chairwoman
MK Ilan Gilon
Avi Dabush- Social activists from the south, religious and Sephardic

MK Tamar Zandberg is contemplating a run, and rumors are Eldad Yaniv is also somehow thinking about i

Current membership is 18K but it will probably increase by March.

I currently endorse Galon, but may shift to Zandberg if she runs. Though if it will appear Gilon is carrying it I’ll vote for whoever has the best odds of taking him down

[America Needs R'hllor]

Confirmed contenders in the Meretz primaries:
Zehava Galon - current chairwoman
MK Ilan Gilon
Avi Dabush- Social activists from the south, religious and Sephardic

MK Tamar Zandberg is contemplating a run, and rumors are Eldad Yaniv is also somehow thinking about i

Current membership is 18K but it will probably increase by March.

I currently endorse Galon, but may shift to Zandberg if she runs. Though if it will appear Gilon is carrying it I’ll vote for whoever has the best odds of taking him down

Eldad Yaniv commented on Galon's FB post calling her brave etc, so it'll surprise me if he runs. Also, I hope Zandberg doesn't run, it might increase Gilon's chances.

[Hnv1]

Confirmed contenders in the Meretz primaries:
Zehava Galon - current chairwoman
MK Ilan Gilon
Avi Dabush- Social activists from the south, religious and Sephardic

MK Tamar Zandberg is contemplating a run, and rumors are Eldad Yaniv is also somehow thinking about i

Current membership is 18K but it will probably increase by March.

I currently endorse Galon, but may shift to Zandberg if she runs. Though if it will appear Gilon is carrying it I’ll vote for whoever has the best odds of taking him down

Eldad Yaniv commented on Galon's FB post calling her brave etc, so it'll surprise me if he runs. Also, I hope Zandberg doesn't run, it might increase Gilon's chances.

I got a phone call polling me on the leadership contest with all 5 names.

Also Zandberg can sway some socialist voters from Gilon, so it’s not a pure loss for Galon and a gain for Ilan.

[Hnv1]

I'm staying in Jerusalem this weekend and I saw previous minister Meridor in the street, I started chatting with him (as he wrote the text book in Roman Law I studied from and we are both alumni of the same faculty). He seemed a bit distressed when we talked about the current clash between the government and the police and courts.

Shame, he was one of the misses of Israeli politics, could have made an excellent leader for the right and then the centre (or maybe even as a SC justice). Like Mitzna we somehow missed his potential. I hope Lapid offers him a spot next time around, we need a steady pair of hands in government.

[Silent Hunter]

Israel bars BDS groups from entering country

[SATW]

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Minimarkets-bill-majority-in-doubt-again-533098?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Likud threatening to expel MK Sharren Haskel for opposing the minimarkets bill.



I am undecided on the bill itself, though I am leaning more towards opposing it atm. but I am very much a fan of Sharren Haskel and believe it would be an outrage for her or any other Likud member to be expelled over this bill.

David Amsalem is trash and has been for quite some time. I have supported Likud my whole life but have increasingly started to question my support for a party that allows corrupt and ignorant fools like Aryeh Deri and Yaakov Litzman to hijack the coalition government and constantly endanger Israeli unity and national security.

I am a moderate on Israeli and Jewish religious issues. I prefer Religious Zionists over Haredi Religious leaders or Reform/Conservative leaders, if I had to pick a side, but I generally am a swingy person on these type of issues. However, I have NEVER liked Deri and have long been skeptical of Litzman and his party.

Them and their parties make up a minuscule portion of the coalition and have no right to hold the whole country hostage in a desperate attempt to protect their waning influence among Israelis.

I have always been proud to support Bibi, but he needs to draw a line with the Haredi parties. They don't get to win on everything, and they definitely shouldn't be allowed to continue their pathetic threats.

Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu have done what Bibi hasn't in recent months: Push the buttons of these corrupt religiocrats. Kulanu occasionally joins YB in doing this as well. And Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid have been consistent on this as well. Even The Jewish Home has occasionally bucked the Haredi threats.

IMO, there should be an ultimatum: The Haredi Parties need to crack down on their community members who spit on and attack IDF soldiers. They also need to crack down on welfare abuse and corruption in their communities and political leadership.

If they can't agree to this then Likud, Jewish Home, Yisrael Beiteinu and Kulanu need to show them their palms.

[Silent Hunter]

Show them their palms? Can you explain that expression please?

[Hnv1]

Haredi community is more reasonable than their leadership. The problem is top is to bottom not the other way around.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Haredi community is more reasonable than their leadership. The problem is top is to bottom not the other way around.

I've actually heard that part of what caused the train works crisis a while ago was young Haredi journalists engaging on social media and reporting the maintenance works, which put pressure on the politicians to stop turning a blind eye.
Also, Sunrise, I'm sure many members of the coalition would love to show the Haredi parties their palms, but they just don't HAVE a coalition without them. Also, Jewish Home has been completely cooperative with this Haredi push to take away our freedom from religion.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The minimarkets bill will likely be voted on tonight. With an opposition MK unable to come because of his brother's death and a coalition MK unable to come because of his mother's death, it appears as if the coalition has a 58-57 votes majority.
We need a John McCain right now. But I truly doubt that anyone other than Sharren Haskel is capable of this bravery. I'd hope that Beni Begin would show some spine, but he already proved that he doesn't have any.

[Silent Hunter]

What is this minimarkets bill about?

[Hnv1]

What is this minimarkets bill about?

allowing the Home Secretary to strike to down municipal laws that allow the opening of businesses on Saturday

[Silent Hunter]

Ah right. So one assumes there is a religious aspect to this bill.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-08/recording-of-netanyahu-son-outside-strip-club-aired-on-israel-tv

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Umm yeah, that happened.

So do the Haredi parties walk out now?

[MaxQue]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-08/recording-of-netanyahu-son-outside-strip-club-aired-on-israel-tv

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Umm yeah, that happened.

So do the Haredi parties walk out now?

No, but they'll use that to force even more of their beliefs through government imposition.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-08/recording-of-netanyahu-son-outside-strip-club-aired-on-israel-tv

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Umm yeah, that happened.

So do the Haredi parties walk out now?

Lolno. They care more about people not eating Kosher, and even that wouldn't make them do anything beyond a feeble protest.

[Hnv1]

Well it appears he was frequent visitor in strip Clubs champagne rooms, with public paid armed security. That and the mini market bill are terrible publicity for Bibi, soft Likud voters won’t like this at all

[Hnv1]

MK Zandberg confirms she will too run for Meretz leadership. So we have a 4 way race, as it is the first primaries we had since Cohen v. Oron a decade ago, I’ll be doing a full survey of candidates and voter groups and trends in the build up (this is going to be the battle between the old and the young)

[Hnv1]

In this first part I will present the different contenders, as this was called in a speedy manner there's still no format for the primaries themselves so I don't know what majority will be needed for outright victory.

1. Incumbent Chairwoman - Zehava Galon

age: 62

education: BED in education, MA in philosophy of education, Phd student in gender studies (for at least 15 years so...).

popular with: older voters, upper middle class voters, LGBTQ voters (she's sort of an icon I believe), feminists. I think the anti-occupation camp led by Raz will also back her, but it remains to be seen.

Ticket: civil rights, dovish, feminism

probable strategy: She'll try getting the old voters out in full strength, along with working with the gay and feminists organizations to register voters by March. The Arab membership is in her pocket as MK Frej backs her. She's the front runner, but she's also the leader for 6 years now and some people may want to see change
I suspect we'll see a line of intellectuals and public figures unknown thus far as Meretz supporters, back her as she wants to show she can rejuvenate the party.

Weaknesses: unknown factor of how much the membership crave change. Zandberg biting into her feminist and gay support. she's not big with young voters.

Strengths: anyone who doesn't want to see Gilon as leader (and there are many) will go vote for her as a safe way of blocking him and a possible schism in the party.

My personal impression: I was never a big fan, and she has quite a diva attitude but I commend her longstanding track record. I support Zandberg but she's not a bad second option, I would like this to be her last tenure though. I think she has the highest odds to win but it will be a close one.

2. The Tankie - MK Ilan Gilon

age: 61

education: unfinished BA in political science from the Hebrew Uni.

popular with: The youth division and students. he's a self-proclaimed Marxist and enjoys the support of young voters who adhere to socialism as young people tend to. His youth are militant and will work hard for him. There aren't that many public figures and intellectuals he could show to support him bar for Prof. Gutwein (the chief academic Marxist in Israel) and his cult.

Ticket: Socialism Socialism Socialism

Probable strategy: he spent the last 6 years preparing for a convention elections so he's not ready for the membership primaries. He'll try creating a Corbyn effect and get young voters out en mass. As the leader of the disabled protests to increase their benefits he'll probably try to register them in large quantities.
A second move will be to try and sway Labour socialists voters who backed Peretz and are disappointed to cross over.

Weaknesses: he looks like a divisive figure, he uses the colour red instead of the party green, and there is more than a scent of an upcoming schism if he wins it. Voters could be deterred as the situation where he is chairman but the PMP and party institutions have very few of his supporters will be quite bad.
He's not that big with old voters, and the Kibbutz voters (which I will address next time) aren't as large group as they were a decade ago, and he's also not really of them so he can't get the Stalinist levels of support Oron got there in 2008. If Zandberg chips too many young voters he's out of the game.

Strengths: His youth is highly galvanized and if they register enough voters we might see a coup. The winds of the era are socialist-populist and if he can channel that he might nick it.

My personal impression: I don't like him, as a politician or on the personal level. I also don't rate his intellect that highly (at all). Sadly, the young voters could tilt this election (I will return to this point in my next post) and he might just edge it. Too close to call yet.

3. The Mare - MK Tamar Zandberg


age: 41

education: LLB from Tel Aviv Uni. BA in psychology and economics from Tel Aviv Uni. MA in social psychology Ben-Gurion University, Phd student in politics & governance Ben-Gurion Uni.

popular with: young voters, socialists, social liberals, hipsters, Tel Aviv metro voters, secular voters, queer voters (younger than the gays), new generation of feminists.

Ticket: Legislation of weed, public transportation and urbanization, fighting religious oppression

Probable strategy: Galon and Gilon are old and still carry the marks of the old parties (Ratz and MAPAM). She was born and raised in Meretz so she can appeal to both factions. We'll see socialist sayings (hip ones) with civil rights ones on the same breathe. She'll have a young and hip counterculture campaign to try and bite into Gilon's appeal with young reds, and Galon's appeal with young feminists and gays.
She was a councilor in Tel Aviv before and she'll work hard on getting votes there as it's the largest chapter with almost half the membership. Some of her allies come from the cities in the TA metro and she'll work hard there with her anti-religious ticket.
As the daughter of a veteran Haaretz architecture journalist and the sister of a footballer, she's quite connected, I suppose we'll see a lot of musicians and artists support her.

Weaknesses: very weak with old voters, far too weak. weak outside of the TA metro area. She's in domestic partnership with Uri Zaki who twice tried to get in the list and failed, if he somehow comes to the spotlight it will hurt her.

Strengths: being young, hip, with a cross faction appeal (well and also attractive). If the election do drag to a second round that might give her enough edge to edge Gilon to second.

My personal impression: I like her, I think she's more attuned to what politicians should do in the 21st century and she could rejuvenate the party. I personally plan to vote for her. As to her odds...well she'll need a bit of luck and a catastrophic campaign by Gilon\Galon

4. The Dark Horse - Avi Dabush

age: 38

education: BA in sociology Ben Gurion Uni. MA sociology in BGU

Ticket: Sephardi, religious, periphery

probable strategy: register as many voters as he can in the Sephardi dominated cities of the north and the south. Bite into enough Gilon voters who like populist ideas but aren't actually Marxist (or don't care about that). Play the Sephardi oppression card that's hip now

weaknesses: he joined Merertz in 2013, he's not recognized enough and he appears inexperienced. Also, Meretz membership (next post I promise) doesn't really have a group that he could really ride to the top with

Strengths: bar for being young and fresh. none. maybe with the general public, less so with the membership

My personal impression: met him once, he didn't strike me as dumb unlike Gilon, just very much not Meretz. he gave some remark about the horrors modernity caused humanity and  I cringed. Thankfully, he doesn't really have a shot hear, too much of a nobody.

5. The New Comer - Avi Buskila

age: 42

education: couldn't find anything official, but I assume he has BA in some nonsense

ticket: veteran combat officer, dovish, eloquent speaker, gay and Sephardi - the new thing

probable strategy - bite of Zandberg as young and hip, bite of Dabush as Sephardi, bite of Galon as Dovish. Bite of everybody for being a good orator and fierce in criticism of the right. bite of the gays for being well gay. he'll try to get as many free voters registered and hope for the best.
He could be considered a bit to the right as he is a self proclaimed Zionist and probably has some stronger affinity to Judaism.
*I think it's a spin by Galon to broaden the debate and show how the primaries are a good thing, he'll quit before the end and run for the list next time
**interestingly he's the partner of former MK Horowitz longtime CoS

Weaknesses - new comer, the field is already quite packed

Strengths - great orator, has some good social media buzz behind him

My personal impression - never met him, he's a great speaker and will be a good addition to the party, not as a leader though

6. The outsider maverick - Imri Kalmann


age: 31

education: BA in PPE from Tel Aviv University

ticket: hardcore gay, outsider, radical change to the party (he wants to change the name to Eretz - literary 'country'), he's actually running in Tandem with one Anat Nir, I couldn't gather much part for the fact they were both strong in the Tel Aviv gay nightlife scene

probable strategy: actually he's rumored to have had registered 2500 supporters in last internal elections in late 2017. I don't know if the figure is true but he managed to get some 50 supporters in the 1000 members convention and he was elected the head of the Tel Aviv branch, so he must had some numbers at least in Tel Aviv. He started this initiative called Avocado to register members for a more "democratic party" as in a home to Arabs, and religious people as well. Which is funny as Imri is gay-married to an Arab men and the majority in both former groups would happily stone him to death over that.
I don't think he has a path to victory but if he registers enough people he might get a nice % on the day. Though I think Zandberg will offer him some combination deal to get his support (especially as he's familiar with a lot of her young activists) as he only ruled out Galon and Gilon

weaknesses: new comer, outsider, maverick suggestions, unbaked political platform and married to an Arab men (even in Israel's most liberal party this could raise eyebrows)

strengths: big independent supporters base, very popular with gays.

my personal impression: seems a rather incoherent young lad but one that can make it to the party list in current climate and new media politics. he'll do best to drop out and support Zandberg in turn of her support.

7. there is actually a number 7 who appears to be a weirdo - I couldn't even find his name