Israel general discussion

[sverkol]

the meretz party primary really intresting,as a labour member i considering to cancel my labour membarship and registar as a meretz member and voting for tamar znazberg.
tamar is great-she is pro Legalization of marijuana,pro Freedom from religion and i think this is the way that meretz should go,the Legalization thing alone worth At least two Mandates.                     
  but i also want to replace the disaster who called avi gabay so it is a tough choice.

Gabay won’t stand for re-election until 18 months past the next General Election

Unless the Labour Party Conference will imeach him and called for another primary like they did to Benjamin ben Eliezer

There’s absolutely no way this happens.

More and more people in the Labour Party(even those who supported Gabay) unsderstand that he as a phony,a right winger who stole the Labour Party.
Especially after he tried to force the Labour mk's to vote for deportation of refugees)and not successfully)
So dont underestimate on that possibility.

[Hnv1]

the meretz party primary really intresting,as a labour member i considering to cancel my labour membarship and registar as a meretz member and voting for tamar znazberg.
tamar is great-she is pro Legalization of marijuana,pro Freedom from religion and i think this is the way that meretz should go,the Legalization thing alone worth At least two Mandates.                     
  but i also want to replace the disaster who called avi gabay so it is a tough choice.

Gabay won’t stand for re-election until 18 months past the next General Election

Unless the Labour Party Conference will imeach him and called for another primary like they did to Benjamin ben Eliezer

There’s absolutely no way this happens.

More and more people in the Labour Party(even those who supported Gabay) unsderstand that he as a phony,a right winger who stole the Labour Party.
Especially after he tried to force the Labour mk's to vote for deportation of refugees)and not successfully)
So dont underestimate on that possibility.

If this happens before a GE the party will fall to single digits. More likely is Peretz breaking away with rebels and Gilon joining him after he loses that old tw*t

[sverkol]

the meretz party primary really intresting,as a labour member i considering to cancel my labour membarship and registar as a meretz member and voting for tamar znazberg.
tamar is great-she is pro Legalization of marijuana,pro Freedom from religion and i think this is the way that meretz should go,the Legalization thing alone worth At least two Mandates.                     
  but i also want to replace the disaster who called avi gabay so it is a tough choice.

Gabay won’t stand for re-election until 18 months past the next General Election

Unless the Labour Party Conference will imeach him and called for another primary like they did to Benjamin ben Eliezer

There’s absolutely no way this happens.

More and more people in the Labour Party(even those who supported Gabay) unsderstand that he as a phony,a right winger who stole the Labour Party.
Especially after he tried to force the Labour mk's to vote for deportation of refugees)and not successfully)
So dont underestimate on that possibility.

If this happens before a GE the party will fall to single digits. More likely is Peretz breaking away with rebels and Gilon joining him after he loses that old tw*t

Right now the party is falling on the polls.
Peretz isn't going to do the same mistake that he did 5 years ago,he will stay and wait after that Gabay will crash in the election(and he will).
I voted for Peretz in the primary(the only dovish candidate maybe exept margalit and the only one who could became pm) but i prefer  EVREYONE  than the phony Gabay(exept Shelly).
Especially after Gabay supported deportion of refugees to their death!

[America Needs R'hllor]

If you don't support deporting the Africans, you are a traitor to Israel.

#HotTake

[sverkol]

New walla news poll:
YA:25
Likud:24
ZU:15
JH:13
JL:11
UTJ:8
Kulanu:8
Meretz:7
YB:5
Shas:4
Nothing new,Netanyahu still has a coalition,Shas falling because Deri investigations,Gabay doing pretty weakly and Meretz getting a little more stronger because Gabay right-winger stands on many issues.
Other intersting poll is about the stands of Likud voters on Yair Netanyahu(son of):
nietral opinion:45%
negative opinion:31%
positive oponion:19%
don't know:5%

[Hnv1]

Second post on the Meretz primaries - the voter groups and demographics.

Membership surged from 17K to 21,890, I expect it will grow to around 23K by the end of the registration process. So everything I write is of course my own opinion and analysis and I will advice anyone with caution, with such small numbers little fluctuations could have huge impact on results. Also, I suspect membership also surged because of the upcoming municipal elections where different chapters (especially Tel Aviv, TA metro area, and Jerusalem; will also vote on their local party list).

So we'll start with the big groups:

Kibbutzim - Meretz was founded by Ratz, Shinoi, and Mapam which was essentially by 1988 the party of the Kibbutz Haartzi (Kibbutzim aligned to Hashomer Hatzair) and some old urban socialists. In all the leadership elections from 1992 onward they were the tipping point as they were all registered through the movement and didn't have to register individually, and they also voted in high percentages as well (that's the culture they came from). Both 2003 and 2008 were won by the Kibbutz votes going heavily to Beilin and Oron.

Things have changed. Meretz gets around 30% of the Hashomer Hatzair Kibbutz votes (Labour also gets 35%). The younger generation is not always as left wing. Different Kibbutz have different ethos and it's sometimes very idiosyncratic and decided by one local popular figure. Gan Shmuel (the largest Kibbutz), will go for Galon and Zandberg, while Metzer will go to Gilon, all more due to local leaders than ideology. There's also hasn't been a Kibbutz MK since Avshalom Vilan.

Now voters have to register individually and only in Kibbutz where there are over 35 members will there be a ballot, so their strength will be greatly reduced this time around. Also I suspect a more even divide in votes this time than 2008.

Though Gilon was born and bred in Mapam, he is not of a Kibbutz so he won't be getting the Stalinist levels of support you would expect. He might edge to win the sector by a bit but Galon will not be far behind as she's popular with old voters, and the Kibbutz sector has plenty of those.
I also expect the Kibbutz of the south to go with Gilon and those of the north to go with Galon.

Kibbutzniks tend to emphasize Zionism and military service, so a candidate more the right like Gilon could profit, and even Buskila could sway a bit to his cause.

The Feminist Branch

a ragtag coalition of feminist organizations, they got Galon elected in 2013. She'll probably will still have their support, but Zandberg will bite into it with the younger more radical members.

The Tel Aviv branch

The single largest branch in Israel (I suspect around 20% of overall membership), Meretz also has 6\31 city seats and may run someone for mayor so this election will also have an interesting interplay with the municipal arena.

Zandberg was a local councilor and enjoys large support with the young voters. But Galon and Gilon also have their bases here. Zandberg has to maximize her vote her if she wants to reach the second round.

As to the voters profile, well really have everything from everything. Old, young, gays (loads of them), hipster socialists, artists, hippies, etc. I suspect that if Zandberg carries Tel Aviv by +5 margin in the first round she'll make it to the second

The medium sized groups:

The peace coalition
The rag tag coalition of peace organization and anti occupation movements. Mossi Raz and Gabby Lasky are their known "leaders". Galon had their backing so far, but Zandberg will bite into it and even Buskila (though he was Peace Now CEO he smells too right for the anti occupation crowd) will get some. Gilon has very little to offer here.

Tel Aviv Metro Branches
lots of branches with big membership each. Will also have municipal interplay. A toss up between Zandberg and Galon

The Arab Sector
Very traditional in the way they work. A politico up front who decides for the rest. Galon has it in her pocket.

Young Socialists
Young, socialist, populist, probably really bad in math. Gilon's big power base, they'll try registering anyone in their facebook friends to vote.

Free Voters
it's actually a large group, but it's so varied I have a hard time giving an estimate to the way they'll vote. One of the biggest battlegrounds.

LGBTQ community
Meretz was once their only voice, this changed a bit. 3 years ago I would say Galon would have easily got this, but she had some fights with big weight activist so Zandberg could bite into her here.

The small groups

Environmentalists
A small group (in general in Israeli politics), will probably go with Zandberg

The Ex Labourites
Gilon has a little surge of those, especially from the Social-Democratic camp. I know several hundreds joined since the race was announced. will probably go 70-20-10 for Gilon, Galon, and Buskila respectively.

The Jewish periphery
Dabush is working hard to register voters there. He is getting some results but it will be far too little. Gilon will come second.

The reform Jews and such
not a big group outside of Jerusalem, very American. will probably divide between Zandberg and Galon


You can think of other sets of voters like the secular voters, the anti-haredi, and etc. using the Axiom of Choice. But I can't see them as a real group but rather as a tag. I already discussed young and old voters so I won't repeat myself.

[Hnv1]

MK Alalouf (Kulano) announced he's retiring before the next elections. he did not get on well with Kachlon.

Boogie Yaalon is in a pickle, he's new platform he's not lifting off and he gave an interview this weekend that made him look like a complete fraud. PM hopes would have to wait

Speaker of the house Edelstein (likud) was caught on tape criticizing Bibi's leadership and half the MKs in Likud. He's actually quite popular with the grassroots and was rumored to be thinking of leadership himself. Interesting.

Sarah Netanyahu. Well finally after all this years a tape of her in one of her famous tantrums was released. as expected she sounds quite mental.

I edited the original post on the candidates in the Meretz primaries as 2 fringe candidates join in the last week or so.

[Kingpoleon]

MK Alalouf (Kulano) announced he's retiring before the next elections. he did not get on well with Kachlon.

Boogie Yaalon is in a pickle, he's new platform he's not lifting off and he gave an interview this weekend that made him look like a complete fraud. PM hopes would have to wait

Speaker of the house Edelstein (likud) was caught on tape criticizing Bibi's leadership and half the MKs in Likud. He's actually quite popular with the grassroots and was rumored to be thinking of leadership himself. Interesting.

Sarah Netanyahu. Well finally after all this years a tape of her in one of her famous tantrums was released. as expected she sounds quite mental.

I edited the original post on the candidates in the Meretz primaries as 2 fringe candidates join in the last week or so.

Edelstein criticized Netanyahu?

Oh boy. He must be pretty sure of himself to do so.

[Hnv1]

MK Alalouf (Kulano) announced he's retiring before the next elections. he did not get on well with Kachlon.

Boogie Yaalon is in a pickle, he's new platform he's not lifting off and he gave an interview this weekend that made him look like a complete fraud. PM hopes would have to wait

Speaker of the house Edelstein (likud) was caught on tape criticizing Bibi's leadership and half the MKs in Likud. He's actually quite popular with the grassroots and was rumored to be thinking of leadership himself. Interesting.

Sarah Netanyahu. Well finally after all this years a tape of her in one of her famous tantrums was released. as expected she sounds quite mental.

I edited the original post on the candidates in the Meretz primaries as 2 fringe candidates join in the last week or so.

Edelstein criticized Netanyahu?

Oh boy. He must be pretty sure of himself to do so.

recorded without his knowledge

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour MKs Stav Shaffir and Michal Biran were suspended from the Knesset's general assembly for a week. The former for calling Likud MK Miki Zohar corrupt (a guy who explicitly tried to blackmail the coalition and get millions of shekels for his personal interests and attempted to pass a workaround that gave a tax relief specifically for cities that voted Likud), and the latter for calling Likud MK Oren Hazan a pimp (the guy who was literally proven in a courtroom to have managed a Bulgarian Casino that included prostitution).
This is the situation of the Israeli democracy- you get punished for telling the truth. The Likud has lost every shred of dignity- the only thing that can save the Israeli right from its moral bankruptcy is tearing all of these parties apart and starting anew.

[DavidB.]

And Oren Hazan himself has been removed for six months, much longer than Shaffir, Biran and Raz, whose membership was suspended for only one week (still, this is very bad too). All of this is incredibly ridiculous and will damage trust in politics. Suspending the mandate of democratically elected lawmakers should not be possible. And democratically elected lawmakers should behave themselves.

[America Needs R'hllor]

And Oren Hazan himself has been removed for six months, much longer than Shaffir, Biran and Raz, whose membership was suspended for one week for a week. All of this is incredibly ridiculous and will damage trust in politics. Suspending the mandate of democratically elected lawmakers should not be possible. And democratically elected lawmakers should behave themselves.

Yeah, but this is not a kindergarden- suspending Hazan doesn't make suspending the others rightful.
I'm not sure that suspending him was such a bad decision, to be honest. I mean, I don't usually watch Knesset sessions, but whenever I watch parts of almost any speech by a vaguely left-wing figure, there's always this shouting buffoon in the background, interrupting and screaming without any way to stop him. This guy is a serious problem for the normal democratic process in the Knesset, the way I see it. Like you said, he should behave himself, and of course, not only him- this entire tradition of screaming and shouting whenever someone speaks in the Knesset is honestly pathetic, and I never saw it in any other Western parliament. I agree that suspending a democratically elected lawmaker is problematic, but what other way would you enforce decorum on an unceasing trouble-maker like Hazan?

[Hnv1]

And Oren Hazan himself has been removed for six months, much longer than Shaffir, Biran and Raz, whose membership was suspended for one week for a week. All of this is incredibly ridiculous and will damage trust in politics. Suspending the mandate of democratically elected lawmakers should not be possible. And democratically elected lawmakers should behave themselves.

Yeah, but this is not a kindergarden- suspending Hazan doesn't make suspending the others rightful.
I'm not sure that suspending him was such a bad decision, to be honest. I mean, I don't usually watch Knesset sessions, but whenever I watch parts of almost any speech by a vaguely left-wing figure, there's always this shouting buffoon in the background, interrupting and screaming without any way to stop him. This guy is a serious problem for the normal democratic process in the Knesset, the way I see it. Like you said, he should behave himself, and of course, not only him- this entire tradition of screaming and shouting whenever someone speaks in the Knesset is honestly pathetic, and I never saw it in any other Western parliament. I agree that suspending a democratically elected lawmaker is problematic, but what other way would you enforce decorum on an unceasing trouble-maker like Hazan?

British parliament climbs to higher tones and it’s actually not 3/4 empty for 99% of the time like ours. As to the matter I agree with David, suspending them is actually suspending a portion of the political mandate given to the house, in addition this is done by an internal body with minimal judicial review and can lead to dangerous political advantage taking (suspending opposition members for minor misconduct).

But Hazan wasn’t suspended from the house, he was the deputy speaker and he was suspended from that role.

[Hnv1]

Sorry, I just saw that he was suspended from the house now for 6 months. Terrible decision, they should allow someone else to take his place for that duration, after the Norwegian bill the personal mandate is dead anyhow.

[Hnv1]

MK Youssef Al-Atouna resigned to keep the Byzantine balance within the joint Arab list. Someone from Balad places 18th will be sworn in instead. Interestingly if 2 more resign we’ll have a second Jew on the list with Lea Zemmel, that will be the first Hadash had 2 Jewish MKs since 1989

[Silent Hunter]

Like you said, he should behave himself, and of course, not only him- this entire tradition of screaming and shouting whenever someone speaks in the Knesset is honestly pathetic, and I never saw it in any other Western parliament.

We have this sort of stuff in the British House of Commons all the time. Perhaps you inherited from us when we ran the old Mandate?

[sverkol]

MK Youssef Al-Atouna resigned to keep the Byzantine balance within the joint Arab list. Someone from Balad places 18th will be sworn in instead. Interestingly if 2 more resign we’ll have a second Jew on the list with Lea Zemmel, that will be the first Hadash had 2 Jewish MKs since 1989

She is from Balad,not Hadash.
She might be the first jewish MK from balad and the third female.

[America Needs R'hllor]

MK Youssef Al-Atouna resigned to keep the Byzantine balance within the joint Arab list. Someone from Balad places 18th will be sworn in instead. Interestingly if 2 more resign we’ll have a second Jew on the list with Lea Zemmel, that will be the first Hadash had 2 Jewish MKs since 1989

She is from Balad,not Hadash.
She might be the first jewish MK from balad and the third female.

A Jewish MK from an Arabic nationalist party? Now that's unique.

[Hnv1]

MK Youssef Al-Atouna resigned to keep the Byzantine balance within the joint Arab list. Someone from Balad places 18th will be sworn in instead. Interestingly if 2 more resign we’ll have a second Jew on the list with Lea Zemmel, that will be the first Hadash had 2 Jewish MKs since 1989

She is from Balad,not Hadash.
She might be the first jewish MK from balad and the third female.

A Jewish MK from an Arabic nationalist party? Now that's unique.

Sorry my bad, she a d her husband were both Hadash in the 80’s

Actually Balad identifies as a liberal one state no nationality party (reality is different of course), they have some Jews including one who operates a book publisher specializing in translation from Arabic.
We need to remember the average Balad voter is more educated than the average Hadash voter, they’re strong with young people who got higher education but hate Hadash who are the “establishment” in the Arab Society. I actually think that with the right work and some courage lots of them could vote Meretz

[sverkol]

I read in rotter net forum that 10 ZU MK's planing to spilt from ZU.
According to the constitution of the Labor Party if two third of the MK's spilting from the party so they taking with them the party name and its institutions,because 5 of the 10 MK's are from the Hatnua must be another 8 MK's from Labour to this move.
I dont know if it is true (Israel Hayom) but i hope so.

[Hnv1]

I read i rotter net forum that 10 ZU MK's planing to spilt from ZU.
According to the constitution of the Labor Party if two third of the MK's spilting from the party so they taking with them the party name and its institutions,because 5 of the 10 MK's are from the Hatnua must be another 8 MK's from Labour to this move.
I dont know if it is true (Israel Hayom) but i hope so.

Link? Sounds like utter rubbish to me

[sverkol]

I read i rotter net forum that 10 ZU MK's planing to spilt from ZU.
According to the constitution of the Labor Party if two third of the MK's spilting from the party so they taking with them the party name and its institutions,because 5 of the 10 MK's are from the Hatnua must be another 8 MK's from Labour to this move.
I dont know if it is true (Israel Hayom) but i hope so.

Link? Sounds like utter rubbish to me

http://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/532477

[Hnv1]

So I was wrong, more than 25,000 registered with Meretz already (half of Labour’s membership now), and it will probably increase by the end of the registration (18.2). My previous analysis is now largely irrelevant, this is now a toss up, who ever registered more will carry this.

[Hnv1]

Finally: The police recommends the indictment of Bibi on 2 bribe charges.
This is going to be tasty

[Filuwaúrdjan]

#itshappening