Israel general discussion

[DavidB.]

Thanks for the update (and lol @ Barak "the snake"). Israeli politics continue to be an annoying balagan.

I haven't seen any recent polls on parties' popularity. However, I've seen this New Wave poll from a few weeks ago:

Who do you think is most suitable to serve as Israeli Prime Minister?
39% Netanyahu
14% Herzog
13% Lapid
6% Kahlon
5% Lieberman
23% Don’t know

Should we keep fighting the Iran deal?
76% Yes
15% No
8% Don't know

Do you think US President Obama is concerned about Israeli interests?
73% Not concerned
20% Concerned
8% Don’t know

[DavidB.]

and to be more like the threads for the other countries.

That's so Israeli Next thing you know you guys wanna join the Champions League as well. Oh wait...

[DavidB.]

In this case, I think Europe loves them so much, they should have them all - just to see how sweet these people are. If you love someone you don't let them go, right? Ireland, Sweden, Belgium, Norway, and the UK should take the most. Would be a perfect solution.

On a more serious note, yes, I agree with Sibboleth that overpopulation in Gaza is a real thing and something should be done about it. Not sure if I buy the conclusions of the UN report though: given that this is the UN, it might also be just another political ploy to force Israel to stop the blockade.

[DavidB.]

To be honest, I don't think there's going to be any serious moves towards a peace settlement until the current Israeli PM leaves the political scene.

Israeli society has shifted to the right, it's not just a Netanyahu thing. I would bet a lot of money that the next Likud leader will be further to the right (with regard to the conflict) than Netanyahu.

[DavidB.]

To be honest, I don't think there's going to be any serious moves towards a peace settlement until the current Israeli PM leaves the political scene.

Israeli society has shifted to the right, it's not just a Netanyahu thing. I would bet a lot of money that the next Likud leader will be further to the right (with regard to the conflict) than Netanyahu.

Then Israel will lose all the international legitimacy it has left. No one left to blame if they keep this up and move to the right.

See if they care. The world has failed us so many times, yet we're still here and we'll stay.

But let's not have that normative debate, as my statement regarding Israel's shift to the right was merely descriptive.

[DavidB.]

... which is exactly why Israel is right in not accepting these Syrians from entering Eretz Yisrael.

[DavidB.]

Poll questions on some issues, by Panels/Knesset Channel. Left less interesting ones out.

What grade do you give Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely (Likud)?
39% Good, 26% Bad, 23% Average

Should Yisrael Beiteinu join the government?
45% Yes, 41% No
Yisrael Beitenu voters: 55% Yes, 45% No

Do you support the EU decision to label settlement products?
78% No, 18% Yes

Will labeling settlement products harm the Israeli economy?
66% Yes, 27% No

Will labeling settlement products harm the Palestinian economy?
59% Yes, 28% No

Why is the EU labeling settlement products?
32% Opposition to Israeli policy in Judea and Samaria, 31% Anti-Semitism, 28% Hostility to Israel, 6% Advance a diplomatic process
(Not sure why it can't be a combination of (some of) these things, because I'd say the decision is fuelled by all four, but yeah... Israeli logic)

How do you define Israeli society?
54% Secular with an inclination towards traditional, 30% Traditional, 5% Moderately religious, 3% Secular, 2% Extremely religious
Note: "traditional" is the term Israelis use for everything that falls between the secular category and the religious category.

How do you define the Israeli state?
51% Secular with an inclination towards traditional, 26% Traditional, 5% Secular

Do you aspire that the Israeli state will become a Halacha State (i.e. a theocracy with laws directly derived from Jewish law, DavidB.)?
71% No, 26% Yes

Do you support ministers making decisions according to Jewish Halacha?
74% No, 23% Yes

Do you support MKs using Halacha as a source for legislation?
50% No, 41% Yes

Will diplomatic efforts of John Kerry & United Nations calm security situation in Israel?
77% No, 4% Yes

Are you pleased with Netanyahu’s conduct during latest terror wave?
72% Not Pleased, 27% Pleased

Who would you like to see in charge of Israel’s security issues?
22% Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu), 18% Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 12% Netanyahu (Likud), 11% Ya'alon (Likud), 6% Lapid (Yesh Atid), 1% Herzog (ZU), 21% None of above

[DavidB.]

Right/religious is at 62 in the poll, which is what matters. YB also counts for that. Center/left at 45 (including Kulanu); 58 including Arabs. A pretty stable picture, though it has been quite a bit higher for the right in the past.

Most of the government parties' losses stem from Kulanu's decline. Predictable, given the fact that centrist Israeli voters have myriad options, Yesh Atid is outside the government and Kahlon didn't do anything useful to them. Shame Yachad wasn't polled.

In an odd historical twist, Israel and Germany are in very similar political situations right now. In both countries, the largest right-wing party has won the last three elections straight, sometimes with a grand coalition (Netanyahu allied with Avoda 2009-2011, and with Yesh Atid 2013-2014) and sometimes not. It's difficult to see the left take power in either country, and in both countries it is severely hampered by the existence of a "further-left" option (Die Linke in Germany and the Joint List in Israel) who it cannot form a coalition with but whose voters it needs if it is ever to have a chance at forming government.

Interesting perspective. To add to that, the situation toward same-sex marriage is similar in Germany and Israel. A popular majority support it and a majority in parliament support it (also in Israel: according to this year's voting compass Likud, ZU, JL, Meretz, YA and Kulanu support it; even if some Likud and JL members would vote against, there would probably be a majority). However, the most conservative parties in the coalition prevent it from happening and will likely be doing so in the next coalition as well. Of course, the difference is that in Israel smaller religious parties are blocking it whereas the big "conservative" party supports it, whereas in Germany it is the big "conservative" party (and its proxy) that blocks it.

[DavidB.]

I hope Netanyahu will step down after this term. Barkat would be a good leader for Likud. Not that I'd (or I'll; depending on when the election takes place) vote for him, of course but he would be better than Bibi, who has simply become too damaging to Israel abroad, even if that is mostly not his own fault, and who is too indecisive on domestic issues. But basically everybody doesn't want Bibi anymore, and yet he decides whether he will stay on or not; nobody within Likud truly seems to be able to topple him. A pretty impressive position of power.

Why do you hate Lapid? I thought he was just an inoffensive dullard?

Lapid is not a dullard. He's pretty smooth, even a bit too much, and exactly that is what people find off-putting.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I didn't say it was likely for him to do so. In fact, I think he will stay on until 202x, since I don't see the Israeli electorate give the left (excluding the Arabs) more seats than the right; their numbers just don't add up.

[DavidB.]

He's very much a dullard and a horrible one at it. The web is filled with his pathetic intellectual bloopers, he's shallow to the point it's absurd and the problem is he has no self awareness so he's certain he's the brightest kid in class. He's smooth but that's because he's a dumbed version of Bibi, a demagogue with nothing bright to say. Now if there something I dislike is shallowness in politics and intellectual deficit (hence my disliking of American politics and politicians) so I find him especially off-putting.

And on the political level, he's far from inoffensive and his remarks regarding Arabs, leftists, right wingers, religious people and such shows it. His 'centerism' is actually militant right-wing in its core and as I said I think he's a dumbed version of Bibi. Now I dislike Bibi but I'de rather him than his lackwit mini-me as a PM. In addition, he's completely a puppet, everything he writes and says now is formulated by imaging experts and powerful people in Yediot group who want their puppet in office.

Because of his offensiveness I wouldn't use the word dullard, but yes, he's not too smart. I entirely agree with your descriptive analysis of Lapid, except for the part in which you call him militantly right-wing: while I totally understand where it comes from and while I think many people don't understand how right-wing Lapid actually is, his "brand" is more populist than right-wing to the core in the sense that he basically takes the median position of secular Israelis on the topic of security: "two-state solution, but not now". And that position is inevitably rather right-wing when it comes to politics in practice, since it isn't that different from Bibi's position. But it stems from opportunism rather than conviction.

I'd compare Lapid's position to the one many European social liberal politicians have, in the sense that their "right-wingness" is often grossly underestimated. Not in terms of policy positions, of course, where Lapid is much more right-wing (in an Israeli sense, on the conflict) than any social liberal politician would ever be, but just in terms of where one stands in the political space when it comes to the most important political divide (in Europe mostly socio-economic, in Israel the conflict).

David are you a civilian? I didn't know you did Aliya

Not yet, but it's pretty likely that I'll be an Israeli citizen when the next election takes place -- that is, if the next election will take place in 2019, which is actually not that likely given the fact that it is, after all, Israel we're talking about Luckily, as a Dutchman, I can handle the idea of snap elections...

[DavidB.]

Glad to see Amir Ohana get a chance to be in the Knesset. Likud continues to outclass the American Right with it's tolerance of LGBT.

Hear, hear. This is very good. Also very good that Yehuda Glick is next on the list to enter the Knesset as a Likud MP.


Ohana is the guy on the left. Picture on the airport with his partner and their children

[DavidB.]

A fringe charecter recently shot by a Palestinian for his third temple activities. would fit better in right of JH, can't see Bibi letting him (he's also a political ally of Feiglin)

I obviously know who Glick is. I wouldn't care about some average Likudnik becoming an MK, since I'm to their right (and given recent developments also to BY's right; would probably vote Zehut now). It would be interesting if Glick were to become the one who holds the balance of power for the coalition.

I'd like to see Barkat become PM in the future and I am very happy he became a member of Likud. At this point I've become tired of Netanyahu, who hurts the country and impedes progress on important issues. He's only there for himself.

[DavidB.]

Stop.

Not sure how you still manage to be surprised or disappointed when we disagree, when basically all our conversations are based on disagreement (and granted, some agreement)... I already told you I am a huge supporter of Feiglin.

[DavidB.]

I'll likely support Barkat, if he runs, which won't be while Bibi is still leader, but my preferred and unrealistic choices would be Regev or Hotovely.  

Agree with this.

This has given Bennett a significant headache, because his party has the Justice Portfolio, and Justice Minister Shaked has been allowing the practice to continue, all the while the more radical Tekumah faction (Uri Ariel and Bezalel Smotrich) have been whinging. Bennett's definitively sided with Shaked though. I assume this is what's burst DavidB's bubble.

I'd been disappointed with Bennett for a while already, but Shaked's approval of torturing Jews is indeed very disturbing. Fortunately the Tekumah MPs are being more principled. I can't believe how Bennett is currently framing opposition to torture as opposition to the existence of the state and its institutions.

On Feiglin:

Well, there's the fact that he manages to seamlessly bind theocratic principles with hyperliberarian economics, more so than literally any other figure in Israel that I can think of.
I also get a vibe of genuine nastiness from him (and no I don't get this feeling from all or even most Israeli right-wingers, even those from the more... theocratic end).
I'm also pretty sure he's a closet Kahanist (didn't he work with them back in the day?)

He is actually not that theocratic at all, and I agree with Danny: to me he actually seems a truly likeable person.

[DavidB.]

a) Still no one has put up any evidence that torture actually took place.
b) By principled I assume you mean "we should only torture Palestinians".

a) One of the detainees lawyer's has released photos of his scarred wrist. Bennett, Shaked etc. also said that there had been no suicide attempt. I don't believe them anymore. I do think these kids were tortured.
b) I am my brother's keeper (even if I disapprove of the bad stuff he did), not the keeper of my evil cousin who wants to kill my brother and me.

[DavidB.]

I'm not saying these people were randomly brought in. I even believe at least some of them did something very bad (while some others didn't), and they should absolutely be punished harshly for that. But let the justice system take care of that, instead of detaining and torturing suspects in order to make them confess. The justice system should just make sure they have a good case. Even suspects have rights, you know. That is not just important for Meir Ettinger, it is important for every Israeli.

This isn't something weird to say; it is exactly how it works in the Netherlands and (afaik) in the US. Citizens have due process rights and even in Guantanamo's darkest days, US citizens have not been tortured.

A Jewish state should treat Jews in a Jewish way. That might include harsh sentencing after a fair process, but it does not include stripping away someone's rights and torturing them in order to make them confess.

(Apart from that, all the attention for this case diverts attention from the much more important fact that Arabs continue to attack Jews every. single. day. Time to move on.)

[DavidB.]

@DavidB: you can have whatever opinion you want: what I object to is labeling it as principle, as in principled opposition to torture.

Nowhere did I talk about Tekuma members' "principled opposition" to torture in general...

What's a "Jewish" way? death penalty for fornicating with a married women, gay sex, or not respecting the sabbath as the Halcha requires?

Not really, since it's been a thousand years since rabbinical courts lastly sentenced someone to death.

I don't think they were tortured, they had a rough investigation which I opposed (as they were not an imminent threat) as I oppose most of those rough methods when they are conducted toward Palestinians. "Torture" is a strong word, you wanna see torture you should check American methods.

All semantics.

As to taking their attorneys word for it...I would rather believe The Sun.

Ben-Gvir is a troll, yes, but that doesn't mean he could never be right.

[DavidB.]

Thought I'd post a poll. January 1, conducted by Panels for Maariv and the Jerusalem Post.

What is the country's biggest problem?
45% The current wave of terror
33% Cost of living + socio-economic inequality
8% Diplomatic stalemate
4% Right-left relations
4% International isolation
2% Religious-secular relations

4% DK

Could a diplomatic agreement currently be reached with the Palestinians?
68% No
22% Yes

10% DK

What is currently the biggest danger to Israeli security?
47% Palestinian violence
24% Islamic State & radical Islam
13% Iran
7% Jewish terrorism
6% Hezbollah

3% DK

Do you believe the current wave of terrorism can be stopped?
65% Yes
28% No

7% DK

Will Iran keep its Iran deal commitments?
79% No
6% Yes

15% DK


Will there be elections in 2016?
46% Probably not
27% Probably
9% Certainly not
5% Certainly

13% DK

As expected. Most Israelis theoretically support a two-state solution, but have become deeply distrusting of the Palestinians. Many still think the socio-economic disparities and the high costs of living are the biggest problem to society; the Likud-led governments haven't done much about that. There has been much focus on Jewish terrorism lately, but still only 7% think this is the main threat to Israeli society. Despite Bibi's focus on Iran, only 13% see Iran as Israel's biggest threat. At the same time, a majority are deeply distrusting of Iran's commitment to complying with the Iran deal, which also seems to indicate that most Israelis really don't trust Obama. Most people think there won't be elections in 2016: this ideologically more coherent government hasn't had much trouble yet. Bayit Yehudi seems very eager to stay within the government and toe Netanyahu's line, probably both because of policy-related benefits and because of Bennett's big wish to make the party a more mainstream and less radical (than before) alternative to Likud.

I found this article (watch out: longread) to be very worthwhile. Maybe I'll write some more about this tomorrow.

[DavidB.]

Could the solution be something like Belgium? That is, a relatively powerless (con)federal assembly to oversee things and solve disputes; and two powerful legislatures to run both Palestine and Israel and their respective ethnic communities (+ one more for Jerusalem, like Brussels is currently run) in their own way.

This is still (roughly) my preferred "solution".

[DavidB.]

Very odd that he would try to conceal that, I don't see why that Kibbutz would matter over another.

Because it makes it much more "tangible" for people. It it not just an idea anymore if you have a name, it is actually something you can look up, find pictures of, et cetera. It is very real.

[DavidB.]

But my bet is Bibi would like either Rubio or Clinton to win with the former of course the first preference.

Bibi would obviously prefer Cruz over Clinton as well.

[DavidB.]

I'm not sure about it. Clinton is not going to cause him any problems regarding the Palestinian issue and will provide a stronger shield than what a Cruz regime could muster around the world. Clinton could block off European initiatives Cruz couldn't.

I am not at all sure about this. The Democratic Party is changing and it is not going to return to the pre-Obama status-quo on Israel. A Clinton administration would be likely to push for new peace negotiations. A Cruz administration would not.

The interesting question is who would he least prefer Trump or Sanders.

This is a very hard question for me as well, and I hope it will not become relevant.

[DavidB.]

Herzogmentum! The YUGE WALL proposal didn't really work for him, did it? Maybe it's because he's too low energy.

Right/religious parties at 72 seats (without Kulanu). Wonder when Zehut is going to take off and going to be polled.

[DavidB.]

This is a fairly interesting article about the only remotely realistic way in which centrist/center-leftist parties might be able to oust Netanyahu.