Israel general discussion

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This is starting to look like an actual big time scandal, very delicate politically as Bibi might try calling a snap election now.

Yes, something big is happening. Still, I'm not very optimistic- not sure the Attorney General will actually do his job this time instead of ignoring it, and these new fires may consolidate support around Netanyahu because so many believe that the majority of them are terrorist acts.

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Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six sitting religious MKs and if it were Bennet the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

Surely this is affecting their poll numbers?

No way. Most people who support BY will either not care, or say that the investigation is rigged against them, or complain about feminism. And the few people who will care, won't be swayed by it and will forget it once election day comes. The only thing of the sort that can have real effect is allegations against Bennet.

In other news, after the murder of a young girl at the Gay Parade in Jerusalem, in 2014, Bennet promised to increase funding for lgbt youth organizations. Now it was revealed that not only will he break his promise, he will actually decrease funding.

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Wouldn't it endanger the left's hold on the mayorship of Tel Aviv, though, thus turning the last big bastion of the Israeli left to the right?

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How is this in the interest of Bat Yam? Why don't they merge with more similar Holon instead?

Well they don't want it. But they are bankrupt and poorly ran so the government can just force it down. Bat Yam is closer to Tel Aviv and could benefit from their money. Holon isn't doing too great either, they only prospering there is Rishon and that because they had a huge land mass so they could attract lots of business to move there and pay let property tax than Tel Aviv.

Yeah. In any case, the municipal authorities in Israel are just absolutely corrupt and horribly ran, maybe with the exception of the big ones, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, who are under more scrunity, and a few others (like Beer Sheva). Someone needs to shake this whole thing up.

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How is this in the interest of Bat Yam? Why don't they merge with more similar Holon instead?

Well they don't want it. But they are bankrupt and poorly ran so the government can just force it down. Bat Yam is closer to Tel Aviv and could benefit from their money. Holon isn't doing too great either, they only prospering there is Rishon and that because they had a huge land mass so they could attract lots of business to move there and pay let property tax than Tel Aviv.

Yeah. In any case, the municipal authorities in Israel are just absolutely corrupt and horribly ran, maybe with the exception of the big ones, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, who are under more scrunity, and a few others (like Beer Sheva). Someone needs to shake this whole thing up.

Jerusalem is up there with the worst, it just gets load of money from the government so people don't notice how dysfunctional the city is (and its pretensions mayor).

Overall part for Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beer Sheva, and some of the Sharon cities they are all terribly ran\corrupt\in huge deficits.

I think an overall reform scrapping lots of municipal authorities and uniting them in larger ones with more autonomy will them all well (this must be augmented by a move to redistribute state lands between cities and smaller rural councils)

But since this kind of reform would be almost impossible to do without broad bipartisan support and, more importantly, cooperation from municipal authorities, I think a few smaller steps to combat the corruption are needed. Namely, term limits for mayors (seriously, my city's mayor has been in office since 1976, and that's before the city became a city). Another measure could be scrapping local parties and returning to the tradition of major parties running their own candidates in municipal elections. I'm not basing it or any facts, but it seems to me like regional parties allow the mayors to have more control, appoint family members and friends etc, while major parties have interest in not being percieved as corrupt, thus adding a bit more scrunity.

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How is this in the interest of Bat Yam? Why don't they merge with more similar Holon instead?

Well they don't want it. But they are bankrupt and poorly ran so the government can just force it down. Bat Yam is closer to Tel Aviv and could benefit from their money. Holon isn't doing too great either, they only prospering there is Rishon and that because they had a huge land mass so they could attract lots of business to move there and pay let property tax than Tel Aviv.

Yeah. In any case, the municipal authorities in Israel are just absolutely corrupt and horribly ran, maybe with the exception of the big ones, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, who are under more scrunity, and a few others (like Beer Sheva). Someone needs to shake this whole thing up.

Jerusalem is up there with the worst, it just gets load of money from the government so people don't notice how dysfunctional the city is (and its pretensions mayor).

Overall part for Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beer Sheva, and some of the Sharon cities they are all terribly ran\corrupt\in huge deficits.

I think an overall reform scrapping lots of municipal authorities and uniting them in larger ones with more autonomy will them all well (this must be augmented by a move to redistribute state lands between cities and smaller rural councils)

But since this kind of reform would be almost impossible to do without broad bipartisan support and, more importantly, cooperation from municipal authorities, I think a few smaller steps to combat the corruption are needed. Namely, term limits for mayors (seriously, my city's mayor has been in office since 1976, and that's before the city became a city). Another measure could be scrapping local parties and returning to the tradition of major parties running their own candidates in municipal elections. I'm not basing it or any facts, but it seems to me like regional parties allow the mayors to have more control, appoint family members and friends etc, while major parties have interest in not being percieved as corrupt, thus adding a bit more scrunity.

You can't scrap local parties it's against freedom of association plus a lot of people don't like national party lists running on municipal level (like it or not major parties are not a good brand on the local level). Tenure cap for mayors is a step in the right direction.

There is a bipartisan support at the national level for change but local dictators usually hold a lot of sway in Likud\Labour. This needs to come from the government by forcing their hands and refusing to pay their deficits

Hm, that's true, haven't thought of that. As I said, didn't base it on anything, it was an off thew cuff suggestion.
But yeah, tenure caps are definitely logical and needed, but as you said, it sadly won't happen because of the power of local bosses in the major parties. And like in many other issues, it comes back to the people again- people need to start joining these two parties and voting in their own interest to weaken the special interests, but sadly, it won't happen.

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Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six sitting religious MKs and if it were Bennet the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

Surely this is affecting their poll numbers?

No way. Most people who support BY will either not care, or say that the investigation is rigged against them, or complain about feminism. And the few people who will care, won't be swayed by it and will forget it once election day comes. The only thing of the sort that can have real effect is allegations against Bennet.

Come on dude, don't be a hack. It is indeed highly unlikely this will affect BY's polling numbers, but not because of any of this; it's because Slomiansky's behavior isn't seen as something political. Most BY voters would think he needs resign and that this behavior is disgusting, inappropriate and unacceptable, but they simply don't let it affect their view of the party.

I agree that I'm often a hack when it comes to Israeli politics. I have a lot to say about the left wing, but the Israeli right has become just cynical and corrupted in recent years, which frustrated me.

But in this case, it was more from looking at recent events. Ofek Buchris, an IDF Brigadier General was accused of raping (in the end he admitted and was convicted of 'forbidden intercourse in consent'). This is disgusting and unacceptable by every measure, yet many (especially on the right, unfourtunately, and I'm not talking from a political point of view, just as an observer) defended him as a 'hero' and a 'patriot', claiming the allegations are false, that he was pressed into admitting, trashing the women, these kinds of things. And I'm not even quoting those from the media, but from personal discussions with people. The BY, being an extreme party, has more loyal and zealous fans, so I'm entirely expecting a backlash if these allegations spark a discussion about the party as a whole.

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How are Likud and Kulanu different on Zionism and other issues?

Both are very Zionist, maybe Kulanu is more pro-Two state solution but Likud cares more about security issues, foreign policy issues etc... then Kulanu. Kulanu's zionism reminds me of Yesh Atid's zionism...bland patriotism, pro-zionist but not on Likud's level.

Kulanu was founded as economic and social issues party. Yoav Galant and Michael Oren are the two foreign policy gurus on the list but, of course, Moshe Kahlon is the party leader and he's famous for lowering rates in the telecom industry.

Kulanu seems more moderate/secular on social issues.

Hypothetically, Kulanu might join a Labor led coalition. HYPOTHETICALLY. That makes them less Zionist. Or less nationalist at least.

Sorry, but that's completely untrue. There is a huge difference between right wing ideology and Zionism.
Zionism is the belief in a Jewish state- the Likud is not more zionist than the Labour, Kulanu, Yesh Atid or Merez. All are zionist, just with a different ideology. Yes, the Likud became a more extreme right wing party, while Kulanu is more moderate. But it's not related in any way.
Actually, the main argument for a two-state solution is that if we annex the West Bank, we will have millions of new Arabic citizens, and the Jewish majority in Israel will be in a grave danger. Imo, the two states solution is an idea that defends zionism better than "we must take all the land".

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How are Likud and Kulanu different on Zionism and other issues?

That's not a good way to understand party lines in Israel all parties part for the orthodox and the Arabs are zionists parties (and the Haredi are de facto Zionist).

Kulano is soft Likud on almost everything, what ever position Likud takes Kulano will be an inch to the left.

Individual MKs vary quite substantively there. Azaria would sit comfortably in Labour, Polkman could fit in YA (very economic liberal), Oren is a likudnik through and through, Galant is a bland ex general, and all the rest can't be classed as similar as well. Yet as a party they're fairly consistent

Yeah, basically the centrist parties are MKs from different parts of the political spectrum recruited by a popular central figure.

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Amir Peretz announced he is running for Labour leadership (for the fourth time) this June. Other possible contenders as Margarit, Shelly, and Bar Lev were so far silent

As a Labour member, not voting for him. Currently leaning towards Margalit, even if for pure change of attitude. Perez had many chances already, and Herzog is absolutely horrible.

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Amazing as Netanyahu received his biggest policy blow (even bigger than the Iran deal) and Labour can't even capitalize on that. I'm surprised Labour MKs aren't in full revolt already, this behavior is perplexing

Herzog is a total mess as an opposition leader, gib primaries pls. Some Labour MKs are reacting well, like Shapir and Michaeli, but they can't really act on it like Herzog. Not even talking about Lapid.

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Netanyahu's legal problems appear to be getting worse and worse. Elections soon?

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Wasn't Ya'alon supposed to form a party by now?

It's not a sure thing. Also, there's no election coming... Yet.

As for Avi Gabai, I like him. Will probably vote for him in the primaries for the slate of candidates.

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Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Omg

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According to Knessetjeremy:

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I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

As to 1 if the indictment is coming bibi will call for election before it is served, that's the whole point to deter them from serving it (as serving it during an election cycle is implausible). He can just fire all ministers and lose a confidence vote, it is unlikely anyone else could form a government (though in some scenario that will happen only to have him kicked out of the arena) and non of the Likud big players would like to be conceived as undermining him.

Likud primaries are a shifty affair, and bibi worked hard to kill off any possible competition. Katz and Arden are popular but not leadership material. I guess Saar will have a comeback and win it (only to lose the election). But Saar has his own pandora box...

I don't Knesset Jeremy, but the likelihood of Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon taking orders from Katz or Erden is slim as I see it

So if Saar loses the elections, what do you think will happen? Clearly, the left can't win right now.

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According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

As to 1 if the indictment is coming bibi will call for election before it is served, that's the whole point to deter them from serving it (as serving it during an election cycle is implausible). He can just fire all ministers and lose a confidence vote, it is unlikely anyone else could form a government (though in some scenario that will happen only to have him kicked out of the arena) and non of the Likud big players would like to be conceived as undermining him.

Likud primaries are a shifty affair, and bibi worked hard to kill off any possible competition. Katz and Arden are popular but not leadership material. I guess Saar will have a comeback and win it (only to lose the election). But Saar has his own pandora box...

I don't Knesset Jeremy, but the likelihood of Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon taking orders from Katz or Erden is slim as I see it

So if Saar loses the elections, what do you think will happen? Clearly, the left can't win right now.

Ragtag coalition led by Lapid including Liberman, Bennet, Kachlon, and Labour\Likud. won't last for 2 years.
But it is very hypothetical as if Bibi is out there will be changes across the spectrum with new players in and new constellations formed (Labour won't put Herzog against Saar). It is plausible we'll see the same scenario mentioned earlier only with a party led by Boogie\Ashkenazi\Kachlon in charge (though Ganz will likely head to Labour so you never know).

I have a very hard time seeing Labour sitting with Bennett, and Lapid creating a purely right wing coalition seems like a bad move. Perhaps there is an outside chance for Lapid leading a government with Kahlon, Lieberman, Labour (presumably hovering at 10-13 seats in this scenario) and Likud?

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According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

David I don't understand,
The other rightwing parties are rising in the polls except Kulanu, new elections would likely reinforce their position especially with a Likud scandal, so I guess strategically speaking it would make sense to force new elections.

Yes, but does Lieberman have anywhere higher to go other than Minister of Defense? And can the Haredim risk Lapid becoming PM? Even Bennett might find it too risky, and Kahlon would very likely lose seats.

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Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Labor has polled this badly before but they always end up coming winning some number in the teens when the actual election happens. They usually get a bounce after their leadership election. Yesh Atid, of course, will have no such election and no such bounce.

Calling for a snap election will actually have a strategic wit to it. It will force Labour to go in with Herzog at the top what will actually end in single digits (and longterm massive damage)

What? No primaries for leadership and list before? Seems very odd. There were primaries before all the previous ones.

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Given the silence here, I have to ask, has the BBC been overhyping how significant the Elor Azaria case has been in Israel, or are our ardent defenders of Zionism here humane enuf to not defend a homicidal medic, or are both factors the case here? I think both are likely true, but I could be wrong.

It's a pretty big deal not because a single soldier is going to jail for disobeying orders and executing a defeated enemy, but because it's a symbol of what's happening to the Israeli right- a whole politocal spectrum, driven by the wish of every politician to show himself as more right wing than the others, declaring a war against the judiciary system, the IDF top command and the media's freedom, all because the democratic and ethical values that always guided Israel are not allowing them to fulfill their extremist ideology, and because they're easy targets to blame for the inaction and incompetence of the current government. After all, the left wing politicians are powerless, so the media, judiciary system and IDF commanders are now the symbols of the demonized left.

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Don't like the usage of the term "martyr" but I agree with most of DavidB's post.

Elor Azaria killed a terrorist, something that benefits Israel and society as a whole. However, he did violate military protocol and I believe he should be out of the military regardless of what the verdict was. Military protocol is important in almost every country, regardless of what type of governmental system it is under.

But think on it from this perspective- in the end of WW2, the German soldiers and high commanders all hoped to fall into the hands of the Americans, not the Soviets. Why? Because the Americans treated their captives in a humane manner, even if they were Nazis. Is there a doubt that this terrorist was'nt nearly as bad as the Nazi high commanders? And yet, the Americans didn't execute them on the battlefield because it went against their values. Israel needs to ask itself whether it wants to be the Soviets, or the Americans.

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Israel needs to ask itself whether it wants to be the Soviets, or the Americans.

It should be neither of those. Israel should first and foremost be a Jewish state, and its laws regarding war and peace should be based on Jewish laws regarding law and peace.

Basing a country's laws and values on a system conceived by people 3000 years ago doesn't sound very healthy. The human society advanced a lot since then in values and morals, and there's no reason the people of the book shouldn't be civilized. In fact, the people of the book should strive to be more civilized than most.

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LOL. Netanyahu and his arch nemesis, Yediot's publisher Arnon Moses, were recorded discussing better coverage for Netanyahu there in exchange of Israel Hayom not publishing a weekend edition and maybe shutting down. On top of the corruption case here it also shows Netanyahu's exerts control over Israel Hayom illegally.

The cover of Israel Hayom tomorrow is going to be hilarious

Yeah, it's huge. But doesn't it mean that Moses came to Netanyahu with this offer (since he was the one with something to gain- less competition, while Netanyahu already has a friendly newspaper)? And if so, doesn't it mean that since the Israel Hayom law wasn't passed because of Netanyahu, he did not accept Moses' offer and thus is innocent in this case?

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LOL. Netanyahu and his arch nemesis, Yediot's publisher Arnon Moses, were recorded discussing better coverage for Netanyahu there in exchange of Israel Hayom not publishing a weekend edition and maybe shutting down. On top of the corruption case here it also shows Netanyahu's exerts control over Israel Hayom illegally.

The cover of Israel Hayom tomorrow is going to be hilarious

Yeah, it's huge. But doesn't it mean that Moses came to Netanyahu with this offer (since he was the one with something to gain- less competition, while Netanyahu already has a friendly newspaper)? And if so, doesn't it mean that since the Israel Hayom law wasn't passed because of Netanyahu, he did not accept Moses' offer and thus is innocent in this case?

Might be I did not hear the content. But it means Bibi has control of the paper which is against funding laws and also means he lied in court twice

Yeah, did not hear it yet too. Just assuming according to each man's motives. I've a feeling that this might be the biggest thing to come out of these investigations.

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LOL. Netanyahu and his arch nemesis, Yediot's publisher Arnon Moses, were recorded discussing better coverage for Netanyahu there in exchange of Israel Hayom not publishing a weekend edition and maybe shutting down. On top of the corruption case here it also shows Netanyahu's exerts control over Israel Hayom illegally.

The cover of Israel Hayom tomorrow is going to be hilarious

Yeah, it's huge. But doesn't it mean that Moses came to Netanyahu with this offer (since he was the one with something to gain- less competition, while Netanyahu already has a friendly newspaper)? And if so, doesn't it mean that since the Israel Hayom law wasn't passed because of Netanyahu, he did not accept Moses' offer and thus is innocent in this case?

Might be I did not hear the content. But it means Bibi has control of the paper which is against funding laws and also means he lied in court twice

Yeah, did not hear it yet too. Just assuming according to each man's motives. I've a feeling that this might be the biggest thing to come out of these investigations.

Regardless, even if full on bribe did not happen there's enough substance for an attempted bribe and attempt is punishable by the common law. They both bribed each other in this scenario as it was a bargain.
And they didn't even begin investigating the submarines affair...

I think we will see a very vulgar Bibi in the coming weeks

What scares me more than snap elections is... There was a big terror attack today. Could Bibi pull an Underwood (aka start a war/operation when things go south)? It sounds crazy, but I do hope he's not that cynical.

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-08/jerusalem-truck-attack/8168824

This is total crap. I cannot see what the Palestinians could be possibly hoping to achieve.

If anything, it just sets their cause back.

It's not 'the Palestinans'. Certainly not Mahmoud Abbas, as you said, he doesn't have anything to achieve. These kinds of attacks are mostly one person deciding to act on his own, sometimes he's encouraged or aided by an organization like Hamas or ISIS, but most of the times he acts independantly while claiming to belong to some organization. This time it appears to be ISIS, which is not related to any Palestinian leadership.