Israel general discussion

[danny]

Since there is one for the UK I thought I'd open one for Israel with this poll (link in Hebrew):

Likud: 37
Labour: 22
Kadima: 17
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Shas: 7

Who do you think is most suitable to be a prime minister:
Netanyahu: 41%
Yehimovich: 15%
Livni: 9%
Lieberman: 9%
other/undecided: 26%

This obviously terrible for Livni and Kadima as a lot of people only voted for Kadima in the last election because they were the only viable alternative to Likud. With polls like this there won't be much reason to vote Kadima, especially when Livni isn't really to Yehimovich's right anyway.

It's good news for Labour that is a result of replacing Barak with the much more popular Yehimovich.
And good news for Likud and Bibi who have a commanding lead right now with Kadima's collapse.

[danny]

Since I don't know much about Israeli politics, why did Kadima collapsed so badly?

I don't think they've been an especially effective opposition. There's also a new Labour leader and then there's the return of social issues (as in: issues about the structure of society and social policy) to the political landscape. Kadima doesn't have much to say about that subject. Also, parts of the Israeli electorate are very volatile.

There is that + the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange which was very popular amongst Kadima's voters but Livni opposed while Netanyahu and Yechimovich supported.

[danny]

Different poll from globes:
Likud: 33
Labour: 20
Kadima: 17
Yisrael Beitenu:14
Shas: 10
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3
Meretz: 3
Raam-Taal: 3
Balad: 3

Numbers are slightly different but with the same general trend.

[danny]

A poll from Haaretz about the Iranian issue:

Should Israel attack the Iranian nuclear facilities?
yes: 41%
no: 39%
other/don't know: 20%

subgroups*:
Haredi yes: 50%
religious yes: 43%
Traditionalist yes: 45:
secular yes: 38%  no:42%
Russian yes:  37%  no:53%
Arab yes: 25%  no:54%

Do you think an attack will lead to a regional war?
high chance: 59%
medium chance: 21%
small chance/other/don't know: 20%

Do you trust the decisions made by Bibi and Barak concerning the Iranian situation?
yes: 52%
no: 37%
don't know: 11%

*a few notes about Israeli subgroups in polls:
1) Haredi/religious/Traditionalist/secular refer to the Jewish religious spectrum and does not include Arabs regardless of their religious affiliation.
2)"Religious" is a term that refers to a specific type of dress and not to all people who are religious and is separate from "haredi"
3) "Russians" refers to immigrants from all of the former USSR and not merely to modern day Russia, people in this group can be part of any of the religious grouping but are usually secular.

[danny]

I don't see it in the poll data.

Think that might mean that he's polling less than the margin of error.

The margin of error on almost all Israeli polls is 4.5% so any party with 3-4 is within that.  Since Baraks party isn't listed I'm assuming it means he simply isn't passing the minimum 2%.
The effect on labours numbers has been positive since Baraks unpopularity caused labour's voters to look elsewhere (mostly Kadima) who are now coming back, with the popular shelly.

[danny]

42% of Israel supports an act that 81% believe will result in all out war in the region?

Such a peaceful nation we must pray for.

But if you think that not doing this action will still lead to war, just one where the other side has nuclear weapons...

[danny]

Since I don't know much about Israeli politics, why did Kadima collapsed so badly?

Sharon died.

Well technically hes still "alive".

And, more importantly, Sharon was never the head of Kadima during an election so he certainly can't be the reason for the recent collapse. This has to do with Livni's bad leadership and some good political moves from her opponents.

[danny]

If my numbers are right, poll averaging, things look like this:

35   -   Likud
21   -   Labour
17   -   Kadima
15   -   Yisrael B.
9   -   Shas
5   -   U.T.J.
3   -   Nat Union
3   -   Hadash
3   -   Jew. Home
3   -   Meretz
3   -   Raam-Taal
3   -   Balad

I only only found data for the first 5 parties in the first poll so unless you're basing these numbers on a poll not listed here the small parties numbers should be identical to the second one.

[danny]

New poll from Haaretz:
Likud 29
Labour 19
Kadima 17
Yisrael Beitenu 17
Shas 9
National Union/Jewish Home 7
United Torah Judaism 6
Meretz 6
Hadash 5

Right total: 68
Others: 52

Are you pleased with the way Netanyahu is functioning as prime minister?
yes 49
no 41

Edit: link.

[danny]

Hadash at 5? Wow!

They already have 4 and 1 mandate is easily within the margin of error (4.5%), so I'm not sure what's so exciting.

[danny]

New poll from Haaretz:
Likud 29
Labour 19
Kadima 17
Yisrael Beitenu 17
Shas 9
National Union/Jewish Home 7
United Torah Judaism 6
Meretz 6
Hadash 5

Right total: 68
Others: 52

Are you pleased with the way Netanyahu is functioning as prime minister?
yes 49
no 41

Edit: link.

So if I understand this - and considering my Hebrew is limited to knowing the name of a single letter I think is cool looking, maybe I don't - but Labour is down from the last poll?

You're right, the last poll was conducted after the Labour primaries which caused a bounce for Labour which has somewhat faded.

[danny]

another poll:

Likud: 33
Kadima: 20
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Shas: 10
United Torah Judaism: 6
National Union: 4
Hadash: 4
Raam-Taal: 3
Balad: 3
Jewish Home: 3
Meretz: 3

Blocs:
Right-religious: 69
Others: 51

[danny]

phk asked for the religiosity of Israel so here is the results of the 2009 social survey (amongst 20 years and over):

amongst Jews:
Secular: 41.4%
Traditionalist ("masorti"): 38.5%
Religious: 11.7%
Haredi: 8.2%

Non-Jews:
not religious: 20.6%
not very religious: 27.1%
religious: 44.3%
very religious: 7.9%

[danny]

Is there any way to evaluate those numbers in terms of the American Reform/Conservative/Orthodox divide?

No, Conservative and Reform Judaism combined are maybe 1% of the population.

Haredi is the same as what would be called ultra orthodox in America (black hats).
Religious is all the the orthodox in America except for the Ultra orthodox.
Masorti tend to keep some of the mitzvot and go occasionally to synagogue, but when they go it's to an orthodox one.
Secular are of course the least likely to keep to traditions but even they, if they would go to a synagogue it would most likely be an orthodox one, and when they think of what "real Judaism" is they would think of orthodox, even if they choose not to follow it.

[danny]

how about you if I can ask?

I'm an atheist, meaning secular under normal Israeli definitions.

[danny]

Why the surprise?

[danny]

Stereotype

What kind of stereotype? Israel isn't that religious a country, and my social score and the fact that I post on the sabbath would be hints that I'm not very religious.

[danny]

New poll from Globes:

Likud: 31
Kadima: 19
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 11
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3
UAL-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3

And I have added the averaging of nickjbor to the first post.

[danny]

... Those numbers add up to 120%. 

Those are not percentages, they are seats in the Knesset, of which there are indeed 120.

[danny]

And here is a poll which added the hypothetical parties of Yair Lapid (son of Tomi Lapid, former head of Shinui) and Aryeh Deri (former head of Shas):

Likud: 24
Yair Lapid: 15
Labour: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Kadima: 10
Aryeh Deri: 7
UTJ: 6
Shas: 5
Meretz: 5
National Union: 4
Jewish Home: 4
"Arabs" (that is how they wrote it): 11

[danny]

"Arabs" (that is how they wrote it): 11

For the purposes of averaging (I'm assuming by Arabs, they mean Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad), let's count that as 4 Hadash, 4 UAL-Ta'al, and 3 Balad, which is the most realistic breakdown of 11 Arab seats.

Since the poll includes purely hypothetical parties that have yet to be founded (if they ever will), I don't think this poll should be included in any averaging anyway.

[danny]

And assuming Aryeh Deri does return to politics, wouldn't he seek the leadership of Shas instead of making his own party? Seems to make more sense that way. Same with Lapid seeking Kadima's leadership -- Livni doesn't seem to be the most popular of leaders. Of course, I'm probably missing something significant from my vantage point on Lake Erie

The thing about Shas is that there are no primaries, It's up to Ovadia Yosef, and as far as I know, he still supports Yishai. and if Deri knows that he can't be the leader of shas than it makes sense to bypass it and start his own party.

As for Lapid, It's possible, but I don't know if he has any interest in Kadima, he may want to recreate Shinui instead, and I don't think Livni/Mofaz (whom ever wins the primary) will want to give up their spot. Of course, right now he is a news anchor so he can't say what he wants to do.

[danny]

New poll from Globes:

Likud: 31
Kadima: 19
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 11
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3
UAL-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3

And I have added the averaging of nickjbor to the first post.

What's with Kadima reclaiming the 2nd place?

I assume it has to do with the post primary bounce that has now somewhat faded.

[danny]

New poll conducted on 3/1/12:
Likud: 38
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Kadima: 15
Labour: 13
Shas: 8
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 6
National Union: 4
Jewish Home: 3
"Arabs":10

Right-Religious:76
Others: 44

This is the most right friendly poll I have seen lately.

[danny]

But the same poll looks quite different with Lapid and Deri:
Likud: 25
Lapid: 20
Deri: 12
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Kadima: 9
Labour: 9
Shas: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Jewish Home: 4
National Union: 3
"Arabs": 10