The Ben Nelson Quiz

[Miles]

For all those who think Ben Nelson is especially vulnerable...

How many incumbent Senators or Governors who were elected with 60% or better lost their next election? (since 1990)

Oh, also, I meant to say non-scandal plagued incumbents.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Strickland, Daschle, and Dorgan I found.

[Miles]

Strickland, Daschle, and Dorgan I found.

Yes, I think Strickland was the only Governor.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Forgot that Dorgan retired in 2010.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Also, Ted Stevens.

[Miles]

Also, Ted Stevens.

Yeah, but he had a scandal.

I also found Jim Sasser, who would kinda count here; he got 65% in 1988 but lost in 1994.

[RogueBeaver]

Based on those POLITICO reports, it sounds like Nelson's retiring. He wants to be a Dorgan, not a Lincoln.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Good. That means he won't be sucking resources from Warren, Baldwin, McCaskill, Kaine, etc.

[Bacon King]

How many incumbent Senators or Governors who were elected with 60% or better lost their next election? (since 1990)

Oh, also, I meant to say non-scandal plagued incumbents.

DeWine comes very close: 59.9% in 2000; lost by a 12 point margin in 2006.

[Miles]

Based on those POLITICO reports, it sounds like Nelson's retiring. He wants to be a Dorgan, not a Lincoln.

Where do you see that?

There's no comparison between FL 2012 and ND/AR 2010.

There's also nothing wrong with Lincoln anyway...she was a great Senator.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Based on those POLITICO reports, it sounds like Nelson's retiring. He wants to be a Dorgan, not a Lincoln.

Where do you see that?

There's no comparison between FL 2012 and ND/AR 2010.

There's also nothing wrong with Lincoln anyway...she was a great Senator.

Within the context of the conversation there was a problem with her and that is she successfully manouevred herself out of her own seat.

[RogueBeaver]

I was referring to Ben, not Bill Nelson. Thought that was obvious.

[Miles]

WOW

I meant to make this thread about BILL Nelson.

....But I just realized it also works for Ben Nelson as well.

Sorry RougeBeaver! Thats why I mentioned Florida.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

John Ashcroft was close enough to 60% before losing six years later, too. No real functional difference between 60.2 and 59.8. Then again, the most important note here is that Nelson shouldn't have gotten to 60% in 2006 -- it was a pretty unique combination of the least popular and most polarizing opponent possible plus the most Democratic wave in decades.

[scoopa]

Nelsons support was always wide but soft. Mostly based on the fact he's bland enough few people dislike him. But his favs. were always underwhelming too and has noted he benefited from a very good conditions in '06. I think he's vulnerable to a well-financed non-rookie challenger like Mack. I'd expect Nelson to over-perform Obama by not more 3% (vs. Romney) and I'm not sure that's going to be sufficient. It depends on the Puerto Rican turnout. A nightmare scenario for Nelson is if in a '04 type of map Obama pulls out of Florida early to focus on OH+PA+WI, VA, CO+NV.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Did Arlen Specter get 60% in 2004?

Also, Tom Daschle went from like 62% in 1998 to losing in 2004.  Larry Pressler and Russ Feingold might be on that list too.  Slade Gorton went from 56% in 1994 to losing in 2000.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Specter didn't come close to 60% in 2004. Joe Hoeffel was a terrible candidate, but he was at least an incumbent congressman.

Feingold got 56% in 2004. Pressler got 52% in 1990.