In 13 months, what will the Intrade odds be for the 2016 prez. nominations?
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  In 13 months, what will the Intrade odds be for the 2016 prez. nominations?
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Author Topic: In 13 months, what will the Intrade odds be for the 2016 prez. nominations?  (Read 7372 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: November 05, 2011, 11:05:33 PM »

13 months from now (that is, early December 2012, about a month after the 2012 election), what will Intrade list as the odds for the 2016 presidential nominations for each party?

(Obviously, the Democratic nomination will be contested in either case, but the GOP nomination odds will be pretty boring if a Republican wins next year, with the presumption of running for reelection in 2016.)
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2011, 11:38:53 PM »

If the Republican wins...

96.8 Republican President
2.8 Chris Christie
0.4 Ron Paul


If Obama wins...

30.9 Chris Christie
24.7 Marco Rubio
19.5 Jon Huntsman
15.3 Bobby Jindal
7.7 Rand Paul
1.5 Mitt Romney
0.4 Ron Paul
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2011, 07:48:15 AM »

If the Republican wins...

96.8 Republican President
2.8 Chris Christie
0.4 Ron Paul


If Obama wins...

30.9 Chris Christie
24.7 Marco Rubio
19.5 Jon Huntsman
15.3 Bobby Jindal
7.7 Rand Paul
1.5 Mitt Romney
0.4 Ron Paul

Both put too much weighting on the frontrunners and not considering enough alternatives, going by history. There'll be tons of candidates trading at about 0.5%, for one.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2011, 10:49:37 AM »

There'll still be people betting for Palin next December.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2011, 11:15:51 AM »

Obama will be far over 0.5 if he loses... if he loses narrowly that is.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2011, 09:17:44 PM »

I don't even want to try placing odds... but this list is my best attempt to name those who will be trading at above 0.5-1%

Democrats

Barack Obama
Andrew Cuomo
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Elizabeth Warren
Al Gore
John Kerry
Kirsten Gillibrand
Russ Feingold
Deval Patrick
Rahm Emmanuel
Kathleen Sebelius

Republicans

Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Mike Pence
Bobby Jindal
Mike Huckabee
Jim DeMint
John Thune
Mitch Daniels
Rand Paul
Jon Huntsman
Sarah Palin
Paul Ryan
Colin Powell
John Kasich
Rob Portman
Bob McDonnell
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2011, 11:59:16 PM »

I don't even want to try placing odds... but this list is my best attempt to name those who will be trading at above 0.5-1%

Democrats

Barack Obama
Andrew Cuomo
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Elizabeth Warren
Al Gore
John Kerry
Kirsten Gillibrand
Russ Feingold
Deval Patrick
Rahm Emmanuel
Kathleen Sebelius

Do Feingold, Warren assume they win an election before then? A former Senator seems unlikely, but a failed one-time Senate candidate seems very unlikely.

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Powell will be nearly 80 by Inauguration Day. Kasich seems too unpopular at the moment.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2011, 01:23:50 AM »

Oh I don't know.  Let's try...
Clinton 20
Biden 10-15
Cuomo 10-15
Warren 5-10
New or rumored new Secretary of State 5
Schweitzer 5
Warner 5

VP nominee 20
Romney 15
Christie if not VP nominee 15
Jeb 10
Runner-up 5-10
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2011, 05:58:00 AM »

Oh I don't know.  Let's try...
Clinton 20
Biden 10-15
Cuomo 10-15
Warren 5-10
New or rumored new Secretary of State 5
Schweitzer 5
Warner 5

I agree that Clinton will lead (regardless of how many denials she gives) and that Biden and Cuomo will be #2 and #3.  My guess is probably Cuomo slightly ahead of Biden though.

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What about Rubio?  I don't Romney will be nearly that high.  It'll probably be Christie and Rubio competing for the #1 slot, perhaps also competing with whoever the 2012 VP nominee was (though that might be Rubio).  If Rubio is the VP nominee, then he'll be #1 for the 2016 market.  If not, then probably Christie.  Jindal, Huckabee, Ryan, McDonnell, and Palin will all be doing OK as well.

I don't see J. Bush being nearly as high as 10.  Why would he be that high?  He was never that high in the 2012 market.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2011, 08:10:20 AM »


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What about Rubio?  I don't Romney will be nearly that high.  It'll probably be Christie and Rubio competing for the #1 slot, perhaps also competing with whoever the 2012 VP nominee was (though that might be Rubio).  If Rubio is the VP nominee, then he'll be #1 for the 2016 market.  If not, then probably Christie.  Jindal, Huckabee, Ryan, McDonnell, and Palin will all be doing OK as well.

I don't see J. Bush being nearly as high as 10.  Why would he be that high?  He was never that high in the 2012 market.


I figure people assumed 2012 was too close to W for Jeb to try to run but he'll be higher when people assume he might.  I figure Rubio's stock will drop somewhat if he doesn't get running mate after being the frontrunner for it.  Agree he'll lead if he's VP nominee.  Maybe I have Romney too high.  I figure people will have him up if he gets in the high 40s but loses.  Was Kerry up (or Intrade around) through 2006?
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2011, 09:46:24 AM »

Do Feingold, Warren assume they win an election before then? A former Senator seems unlikely, but a failed one-time Senate candidate seems very unlikely.

I think that Warren is very likely to win - but yes, I wouldn't expect her to be a player if she lost.

Feingold barely made the list - but liberal posters on this forum mention his name all the time. I don't expect him to run for anything, especially not the Presidency, but apparently many people do.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2011, 05:29:11 AM »


I figure people assumed 2012 was too close to W for Jeb to try to run but he'll be higher when people assume he might.

I don't know why people would think that, unless Jeb actually does something to indicate he's interested in running within the next 13 months.  The longer the period of time since he held office without him indicating any interest in a run, the less he'll be thought of as a contender.

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Not going to bother posting all of his numbers, but Kerry was at 3.4 in July 2005:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=26006.msg569117#msg569117

and then still at 3.4 in May 2006:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=40420.0
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LastVoter
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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2011, 11:57:47 PM »

Do Feingold, Warren assume they win an election before then? A former Senator seems unlikely, but a failed one-time Senate candidate seems very unlikely.

I think that Warren is very likely to win - but yes, I wouldn't expect her to be a player if she lost.

Feingold barely made the list - but liberal posters on this forum mention his name all the time. I don't expect him to run for anything, especially not the Presidency, but apparently many people do.
Feingold is wishful thinking, I think he is done, if he took down Walker in a recall he would be be trading above Warren.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2012, 05:24:56 AM »

*bump*

Anyone want to update their predictions?  The Intrade markets on 2016 will be open in just 8 short months.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2012, 04:14:21 PM »

(assuming Obama win)


Hillary 30
Cuomo 20
M. Warner 10
Biden 10
Rest of Field 30


Rubio 20
Christie 20
McDonnell 15
Jindal 15
Rest of Field 30


really enlightening exercise
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2012, 06:20:19 PM »

Oh I don't know.  Let's try...
Clinton 20
Biden 10-15
Cuomo 10-15
Warren 5-10
New or rumored new Secretary of State 5
Schweitzer 5
Warner 5

VP nominee 20
Romney 15
Christie if not VP nominee 15
Jeb 10
Runner-up 5-10

Maybe change Warner to O'Malley, and (if the VP nominee is not Rubio) Romney to Rubio, add Jindal at around 10.  Palin (misguidedly) and Huckabee high single digits.
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politicus
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2012, 09:42:43 PM »

Assuming Obama is reelected

Hillary 30
Schweitzer 20
Cuomo 20
Mark Warner 10
Biden 5
Rest of Field 15


Rubio 30
Christie 15
McDonnell 15
Jindal 10
Rest of Field 30
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2012, 04:31:22 AM »

My prediction (assuming Obama reelected):

Dems

Clinton 28
Cuomo 16
Biden 14
O'Malley 9
Gillibrand 7
Kaine or Warren 6 (if one of them wins their respective senate race)
Warner 5
Gore 4
Schweitzer 4

GOP

Christie 18
Rubio 18
Jindal 11
McDonnell 10
Bush 8
Ryan 8
Huckabee 6
Palin 5
Santorum 5
Rand Paul 4
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politicus
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2012, 07:21:28 AM »

Hope you are right. Schweitzer will be a bargain at those odds.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2012, 03:03:25 PM »

My prediction (assuming Obama reelected):

Dems

Clinton 28
Cuomo 16
Biden 14
O'Malley 9
Gillibrand 7
Kaine or Warren 6 (if one of them wins their respective senate race)
Warner 5
Gore 4
Schweitzer 4

GOP

Christie 18
Rubio 18
Jindal 11
McDonnell 10
Bush 8
Ryan 8
Huckabee 6
Palin 5
Santorum 5
Rand Paul 4


but if Rubio or McDonell were running mate and perform OK, I'd bump them up about 10.  Also if Warren or Schweitzer scores in the convention, that could boost their trading.
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