In 13 months, what will the Intrade odds be for the 2016 prez. nominations?

[Mr. Morden]

13 months from now (that is, early December 2012, about a month after the 2012 election), what will Intrade list as the odds for the 2016 presidential nominations for each party?

(Obviously, the Democratic nomination will be contested in either case, but the GOP nomination odds will be pretty boring if a Republican wins next year, with the presumption of running for reelection in 2016.)

[Mr. Morden]

Oh I don't know.  Let's try...
Clinton 20
Biden 10-15
Cuomo 10-15
Warren 5-10
New or rumored new Secretary of State 5
Schweitzer 5
Warner 5

I agree that Clinton will lead (regardless of how many denials she gives) and that Biden and Cuomo will be #2 and #3.  My guess is probably Cuomo slightly ahead of Biden though.

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What about Rubio?  I don't Romney will be nearly that high.  It'll probably be Christie and Rubio competing for the #1 slot, perhaps also competing with whoever the 2012 VP nominee was (though that might be Rubio).  If Rubio is the VP nominee, then he'll be #1 for the 2016 market.  If not, then probably Christie.  Jindal, Huckabee, Ryan, McDonnell, and Palin will all be doing OK as well.

I don't see J. Bush being nearly as high as 10.  Why would he be that high?  He was never that high in the 2012 market.

[Mr. Morden]

I figure people assumed 2012 was too close to W for Jeb to try to run but he'll be higher when people assume he might.

I don't know why people would think that, unless Jeb actually does something to indicate he's interested in running within the next 13 months.  The longer the period of time since he held office without him indicating any interest in a run, the less he'll be thought of as a contender.

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Not going to bother posting all of his numbers, but Kerry was at 3.4 in July 2005:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=26006.msg569117#msg569117

and then still at 3.4 in May 2006:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=40420.0

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Anyone want to update their predictions?  The Intrade markets on 2016 will be open in just 8 short months.

[Mr. Morden]

My prediction (assuming Obama reelected):

Dems

Clinton 28
Cuomo 16
Biden 14
O'Malley 9
Gillibrand 7
Kaine or Warren 6 (if one of them wins their respective senate race)
Warner 5
Gore 4
Schweitzer 4

GOP

Christie 18
Rubio 18
Jindal 11
McDonnell 10
Bush 8
Ryan 8
Huckabee 6
Palin 5
Santorum 5
Rand Paul 4