In 13 months, what will the Intrade odds be for the 2016 prez. nominations?

[Bull Moose Base]

Oh I don't know.  Let's try...
Clinton 20
Biden 10-15
Cuomo 10-15
Warren 5-10
New or rumored new Secretary of State 5
Schweitzer 5
Warner 5

VP nominee 20
Romney 15
Christie if not VP nominee 15
Jeb 10
Runner-up 5-10

[Bull Moose Base]

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What about Rubio?  I don't Romney will be nearly that high.  It'll probably be Christie and Rubio competing for the #1 slot, perhaps also competing with whoever the 2012 VP nominee was (though that might be Rubio).  If Rubio is the VP nominee, then he'll be #1 for the 2016 market.  If not, then probably Christie.  Jindal, Huckabee, Ryan, McDonnell, and Palin will all be doing OK as well.

I don't see J. Bush being nearly as high as 10.  Why would he be that high?  He was never that high in the 2012 market.

I figure people assumed 2012 was too close to W for Jeb to try to run but he'll be higher when people assume he might.  I figure Rubio's stock will drop somewhat if he doesn't get running mate after being the frontrunner for it.  Agree he'll lead if he's VP nominee.  Maybe I have Romney too high.  I figure people will have him up if he gets in the high 40s but loses.  Was Kerry up (or Intrade around) through 2006?

[Bull Moose Base]

Oh I don't know.  Let's try...
Clinton 20
Biden 10-15
Cuomo 10-15
Warren 5-10
New or rumored new Secretary of State 5
Schweitzer 5
Warner 5

VP nominee 20
Romney 15
Christie if not VP nominee 15
Jeb 10
Runner-up 5-10

Maybe change Warner to O'Malley, and (if the VP nominee is not Rubio) Romney to Rubio, add Jindal at around 10.  Palin (misguidedly) and Huckabee high single digits.

[Bull Moose Base]

My prediction (assuming Obama reelected):

Dems

Clinton 28
Cuomo 16
Biden 14
O'Malley 9
Gillibrand 7
Kaine or Warren 6 (if one of them wins their respective senate race)
Warner 5
Gore 4
Schweitzer 4

GOP

Christie 18
Rubio 18
Jindal 11
McDonnell 10
Bush 8
Ryan 8
Huckabee 6
Palin 5
Santorum 5
Rand Paul 4

but if Rubio or McDonell were running mate and perform OK, I'd bump them up about 10.  Also if Warren or Schweitzer scores in the convention, that could boost their trading.