In 13 months, what will the Intrade odds be for the 2016 prez. nominations?

[Nichlemn]

If the Republican wins...

96.8 Republican President
2.8 Chris Christie
0.4 Ron Paul


If Obama wins...

30.9 Chris Christie
24.7 Marco Rubio
19.5 Jon Huntsman
15.3 Bobby Jindal
7.7 Rand Paul
1.5 Mitt Romney
0.4 Ron Paul

Both put too much weighting on the frontrunners and not considering enough alternatives, going by history. There'll be tons of candidates trading at about 0.5%, for one.

[Nichlemn]

I don't even want to try placing odds... but this list is my best attempt to name those who will be trading at above 0.5-1%

Democrats

Barack Obama
Andrew Cuomo
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Elizabeth Warren
Al Gore
John Kerry
Kirsten Gillibrand
Russ Feingold
Deval Patrick
Rahm Emmanuel
Kathleen Sebelius

Do Feingold, Warren assume they win an election before then? A former Senator seems unlikely, but a failed one-time Senate candidate seems very unlikely.

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Powell will be nearly 80 by Inauguration Day. Kasich seems too unpopular at the moment.