GA-InsiderAdvantage: "Generic Republican" leads Obama by 16

[Tender Branson]

In November of 2008 it was InsiderAdvantage, polling for WSB-TV/ABC Atlanta that showed presidential candidate Barack Obama garnering 47% of the vote against Republican John McCain in 2008. That’s exactly where Obama landed—close enough to force incumbent GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss into a post General Election runoff.

As they say, that was then, this is now. A recent InsiderAdvantage poll of 459 registered voters in Georgia (conducted October 18, with a margin of error of +/- 5%) shows the following:

"If the election were held today would you vote to reelect President Barack Obama, or vote for whomever is the Republican nominee?"

Obama: 38%
Republican: 54%
Undecided/No Opinion: 8%

If anyone in the Obama camp believes Georgia, at this time, is in play, they are wrong. Independent voters support any GOP nominee over Obama by a 49%-to-38% margin. Democrats are at a 79% support level for the president, with Republicans at nearly 90% for any GOP nominee.

InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV political analyst Matt Towery: “Keep in mind that this is a GOP generic ballot test. President Obama does better when polled against specific names. However, his numbers are so anemic right now, that it would take a major political turn to cause Georgia to become a competitive state for him in 2012. I know, because polling for Politico and WSB in 2008, I had Obama close in Georgia, winning Florida, winning North Carolina, and winning Virginia. All of those polls proved to be correct. But 2012 is shaping up in an entirely different manner.”

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1028_2197.aspx

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

So much for the question in the main 2012 Presidential forum about whether or not Obama could be competitive in Georgia.

That sixteen point deficit is massive; of course a Generic Republican may poll better than a named candidate such as Romney or Perry

[Tender Branson]

Independent voters support any GOP nominee over Obama by a 49%-to-38% margin.

Democrats are at a 79% support level for the president, with Republicans at nearly 90% for any GOP nominee.

Independents are not bad at 49-38, Obama lost them 57-40 in 2008.

The bad thing is Democrats at 79%, he won them with 90%. But after the conventions he will be there.

Usually, the Generic Republican always polls better than a real Republican. Subtract about 10% from this margin, and you have the margins for Obama vs. Romney/Cain/Gingrich/Perry.

I hope we get a "real" poll soon ...

[pbrower2a]

In November of 2008 it was InsiderAdvantage, polling for WSB-TV/ABC Atlanta that showed presidential candidate Barack Obama garnering 47% of the vote against Republican John McCain in 2008. That’s exactly where Obama landed—close enough to force incumbent GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss into a post General Election runoff.

As they say, that was then, this is now. A recent InsiderAdvantage poll of 459 registered voters in Georgia (conducted October 18, with a margin of error of +/- 5%) shows the following:

"If the election were held today would you vote to reelect President Barack Obama, or vote for whomever is the Republican nominee?"

Obama: 38%
Republican: 54%
Undecided/No Opinion: 8%

If anyone in the Obama camp believes Georgia, at this time, is in play, they are wrong. Independent voters support any GOP nominee over Obama by a 49%-to-38% margin. Democrats are at a 79% support level for the president, with Republicans at nearly 90% for any GOP nominee.

InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV political analyst Matt Towery: “Keep in mind that this is a GOP generic ballot test. President Obama does better when polled against specific names. However, his numbers are so anemic right now, that it would take a major political turn to cause Georgia to become a competitive state for him in 2012. I know, because polling for Politico and WSB in 2008, I had Obama close in Georgia, winning Florida, winning North Carolina, and winning Virginia. All of those polls proved to be correct. But 2012 is shaping up in an entirely different manner.”

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1028_2197.aspx

"Generic Republican", that mythical creature that always polls better than any real-life candidate against a Democratic incumbent, is already in hibernation; unlike a bear, he is not coming out of hibernation next year until the Presidential election is over.  The electoral weaknesses of President Obama are already well established; he is never going to get many votes from the poor, undereducated white people in the South. Clinton got some of them in the 1990s and Carter got some of them in 1976, but a cosmopolitan d@mnyankee isn't going to get those votes. (Gore lost track of his Southern roots and lost in 2000 in part because he became a cosmopolitan d@mnyankee type).

Barack Obama would have trouble with those voters if he were a white guy with a Polish or Italian surname. Dwight Eisenhower had his worst showings in that region... Poor, undereducated white voters of early-American stock may be the most xenophobic of voters, and they may be concerned more with "gun rights" than with student loans.

But -- all GOP challengers have their weaknesses. Romney isn't a war hero. Cain is black, so there goes that distinction.  Perry, Palin, and Bachmann are on the lunatic fringe.

Georgia has a huge military presence, and it is hardly surprising that John McCain, a war hero, won the state against someone with no military experience or record on military affairs. But if the President isn't a soldier, he as been an effective diplomat and commander-in-chief.     

[tmthforu94]

Unfortunately, "Generic Republican" isn't running in this race. If he were he would be favored to win.

While I except to see many dismiss this because it's just "Generic Republican", I still think it's telling that Obama trails to it by 16 points - I have a hard time seeing Obama extremely competitive in Georgia right now.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

When will Mr. Generic Republican stop playing games with the media and just announce his candidacy already?

[pbrower2a]

When will Mr. Generic Republican stop playing games with the media and just announce his candidacy already?

Ronald Reagan isn't coming back from the dead, and even if he did he would be Constitutionally barred from the Presidency. 

[Minnesota Mike]

With the probable electorate at least 30% black, 5% other minorities it  is tough for me to see Obama's floor in Georgia much below 45% of the vote. I don't think Obama gets to 50% either but I do think Georgia will be a single digit race.

[pbrower2a]

Independent voters support any GOP nominee over Obama by a 49%-to-38% margin.

Democrats are at a 79% support level for the president, with Republicans at nearly 90% for any GOP nominee.

Independents are not bad at 49-38, Obama lost them 57-40 in 2008.

The bad thing is Democrats at 79%, he won them with 90%. But after the conventions he will be there.

Usually, the Generic Republican always polls better than a real Republican. Subtract about 10% from this margin, and you have the margins for Obama vs. Romney/Cain/Gingrich/Perry.

I hope we get a "real" poll soon ...

The military vote will likely make the difference in 2012.

Something that I noticed on age-based divisions of the polls was that although voters under 30 went more for President Obama in most states than did the vote of all other age groups (as I recall, President Obama won that age group about 55-45 despite losing the state roughly 55-45), such was not so in Georgia. Georgia has some huge military bases (among them Fort Benning and Warner-Robbins AFB), and those had lots of young voters often new to the vote.

Although the Armed Services probably attract a cross-section of non-white youth across the political spectrum, the Armed Services much more attract conservative-leaning youth from among whites. If they vote for the first time, then they probably vote in Georgia, and even if they come from California, they are probably more likely to vote Republican. Such was probably enough to negate the tendency of the young vote to tend for President Obama in Georgia. Add to that that the  Republican nominee was a war hero, such would also tend to push Georgia's young voters toward the Republican nominee.

In 2012 there will likely be no war hero running for President. Military policy will matter far more. 

The military population is a transient part of the electorate. Few of the low-ranking soldiers and airmen of 2008 will be present in Georgia in 2012. But those there will have the record of President Obama to judge. 



 

[Heimdal]

Obamas floor in Georgia is certainly higher than 35%. Even John Kerry managed to get over 40%.

But the bottom line is that Georgia wont be a swing state in 2012. Obama is too much of a Liberal.

[King]

Generic Republican will never be found as GR is kind of a RINO. Otherwise, all these conservatives wouldn't be struggling because of their views.

A better term is "Generic Not Obama."

[memphis]

Last time I checked Obama was down 8 nationally on gallup against generic republican. People really want a viable alternative to Obama. Alas, the options are Perry, Romney, Cain, et al.

[freepcrusher]

In November of 2008 it was InsiderAdvantage, polling for WSB-TV/ABC Atlanta that showed presidential candidate Barack Obama garnering 47% of the vote against Republican John McCain in 2008. That’s exactly where Obama landed—close enough to force incumbent GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss into a post General Election runoff.

As they say, that was then, this is now. A recent InsiderAdvantage poll of 459 registered voters in Georgia (conducted October 18, with a margin of error of +/- 5%) shows the following:

"If the election were held today would you vote to reelect President Barack Obama, or vote for whomever is the Republican nominee?"

Obama: 38%
Republican: 54%
Undecided/No Opinion: 8%

If anyone in the Obama camp believes Georgia, at this time, is in play, they are wrong. Independent voters support any GOP nominee over Obama by a 49%-to-38% margin. Democrats are at a 79% support level for the president, with Republicans at nearly 90% for any GOP nominee.

InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV political analyst Matt Towery: “Keep in mind that this is a GOP generic ballot test. President Obama does better when polled against specific names. However, his numbers are so anemic right now, that it would take a major political turn to cause Georgia to become a competitive state for him in 2012. I know, because polling for Politico and WSB in 2008, I had Obama close in Georgia, winning Florida, winning North Carolina, and winning Virginia. All of those polls proved to be correct. But 2012 is shaping up in an entirely different manner.”

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1028_2197.aspx

Barack Obama would have trouble with those voters if he were a white guy with a Polish or Italian surname. Dwight Eisenhower had his worst showings in that region... Poor, undereducated white voters of early-American stock may be the most xenophobic of voters, and they may be concerned more with "gun rights" than with student loans. 

Those people aren't the reason why Obama lost Georgia. The real weakness is in the outer edges of Metro ATL. Areas like East Cobb, North Fulton, Cherokee, Forsyth, Paulding, outer Gwinnett etc. Those areas fit the same demographics of Suffolk County, New York or Fairfield County, Connecticut (white, wealthy, well-educated) but those areas are all 65-80% Republican as opposed to an area like Suffolk County or Fairfield County which is more marginal.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, so sad Generic Republican isn't running... it's stereotypical Republican.

Obama will not lose GA by 16% - the Dem number will spike back up closer to the election... however, I think Democrats see GA as a bonus... there should be no bets on it in the Obama column... but it is a state they can put some money into and maybe even swing Obama through Atlanta etc etc... but only once they're sure the firewall is secure.

[pbrower2a]

Yes, so sad Generic Republican isn't running... it's stereotypical Republican.

Obama will not lose GA by 16% - the Dem number will spike back up closer to the election... however, I think Democrats see GA as a bonus... there should be no bets on it in the Obama column... but it is a state they can put some money into and maybe even swing Obama through Atlanta etc etc... but only once they're sure the firewall is secure.

Georgia is a low priority because it has no open Senate seat. Arizona is effectively a bigger prize despite fewer electoral votes, and Texas is a more likely target for Democrats if it should have even a credible Democrat running for the Senate seat even if the President is less likely to win it. Indiana has a contingency; the President won't campaign actively there in 2012 unless Indiana Republicans show themselves capable of tea-bagging Senator Lugar.

So here's how I see some of the states in a range from about 220 to 440 wins for the President --

Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire (except against Romney) Pennsylvania, Wisconsin -- close in an Obama loss to anyone. New Hampshire is a sure Obama win against anyone but Romney.

Colorado and Nevada -- close in an Obama loss to Romney, decisive for Obama against anyone else.

Florida,  North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia -- swing in a 50-50 election. Arizona enters this group if  Mitt Romney takes new Hampshire off the table. Obama wins the election outright with either Florida or Ohio, North Carolina and one more electoral vote (NE-01)? or Virginia and any another state (even Montana) against Romney;  any one of those states wins against anyone other than Romney.

Arizona (against anyone other than Romney), Indiana, Missouri, Texas -- gravy for electoral votes, but potential Senate pickups that will bring attention to the states from the President. No way does President Obama win Arizona against Romney without also winning Colorado or Nevada.
 
Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota  -- gravy     

[old timey villain]

I simply can't accept this poll until I see some more crosstabs or someone from insider advantage tell me exactly how and where they polled. I wouldn't expect Obama to win in most Georgia polls, but 38% for Obama seems pretty damn low and 54% for Mr. Generic sounds fishy too.

1) 54% for the Republican nominee is very probable in Georgia next year, but Generic Republican always does better against Obama than an actual presumptive nominee. I guarantee that if they polled Obama against real challengers they wouldn't beat him by 16 points.

2) Democratic nominees have been able to get more than 40% of the vote in Georgia in every election since 1992. I don't see how Obama only gets 38% now. Even Mondale did better than that in Georgia.

3) I have a suspicion that this poll under represented minorities. Georgia actually has a very high floor for democrats because of the large minority vote here, but a very low ceiling because it's hard to win over a lot of white voters. In 2008 the Georgia electorate was about 30% Black and I expect it to be a bit higher in 2012. I also expect to see the hispanic and asian vote share increase as well. We could see the white percentage of the electorate drop below 60% for the first time in 2012. For Obama to only win 38% of the vote, his republican challenger has to actually do better with white voters than McCain did in 2008, and I don't think you can do better than 75% in a general election, even in Georgia.

I'm not saying Obama will win Georgia, he may not even come close. But he aint losing by 16 points.