MSNBC Poll: Ron Paul @ 18% in Obama/Romney/Paul matchup

[Averroës Nix]

Full results here. 11/2-11/5, 1000 adults, MoE +/-3.10%

With Paul:

Obama - 44%
Romney - 32%
Paul - 18%

With Bloomberg:

Obama - 44%
Romney - 35%
Bloomberg - 13%


A relatively strong performance by Paul; if he were to continue polling at that level, he'd meet the threshold for inclusion in debates.

[Likely Voter]

I could see Paul doing it. With those numbers, Paul would be able to make it into the presidential debates. (you need 15%+).  That would be very tempting for him to get his message out.

 He endorsed a 3rd party candidate in 2008, why would he endorse Romney this time? Paul has not ruled out a 3rd party run and he isn't running for congress again so he has nothing to lose.

[Person Man]

With Paul:

Obama - 44%
Romney - 32%
Paul - 18%
With Paul:

Obama (D) - 44%
Romney (R)- 32%
Paul  (T)- 18%

Crazy ass map...

[King]

This would be a fun way to nominate Romney without the US falling to fascism.

[NHI]

The nightmare scenario. No, Ron Paul!

[Eraserhead]

I wonder how well Paul would do in Montana and some of those wacky libertarianish states...

[Reluctant Republican]

Nice numbers. I'd expect to see Paul at something like that if he announced a third party run. The trick would be maintaining that level of support until the debates. I'm pretty iffy on if he could do that.

Even though I tend to view third party's as wasted efforts, A part of me would like to see this matchup. It would be exciting to have a candidate with Perot like strength in the race.

[Ben Romney]

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (NBC/WSJ)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 43%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 53%
Herman Cain (R) 38%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%
Mitt Romney (R) 32%
Ron Paul (I) 18%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%
Mitt Romney (R) 35%
Michael Bloomberg (I) 13%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/November_Poll.pdf

[Averroës Nix]

Nice numbers. I'd expect to see Paul at something like that if he announced a third party run. The trick would be maintaining that level of support until the debates. I'm pretty iffy on if he could do that.

Ballot access and fundraising seem like the biggest difficulties. The Libertarian Party (assuming he took that nomination) doesn't have access in many states and running independently would be a challenge. And as impressive as his small-donor support has been, he'd also have to bring his fundraising to an entirely different level.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Paul would need to win the Libertarian nomination for ballot access, but purist like Ruwart and Kubby would hate him, and maybe even hurt him inadvertently in the end. The Constitution Party would endorse Paul in a heartbeat. Paul's base would be enough to keep him at 5-6%, and turned off Tea Partiers would go to Paul as well. I think Paul may actually hurt Obama more, seeing as he expanded the wars, and Romney really didn't have much to with it. I suppose if the Green Party gets at least 1% of the vote (with some OWS support they can), then Obama would be damaged enough for a narrow Romney win.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Add Indiana to Paul's tally please.

[bgwah]

A major third party candidacy? Yes please!!

I'm not sure Paul would win any states at 18%, as like Perot, he doesn't have any obvious regional base... But you never know.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Muy interesante...

[Eraserhead]

A major third party candidacy? Yes please!!

I'm not sure Paul would win any states at 18%, as like Perot, he doesn't have any obvious regional base... But you never know.

What do you think would be the most likely state to fall to him if he managed to take one?

[redcommander]

A major third party candidacy? Yes please!!

I'm not sure Paul would win any states at 18%, as like Perot, he doesn't have any obvious regional base... But you never know.

He might win Vermont?

[Person Man]

I think of Ron Paul more of a Buchananite/Microcratic Nationalist than a Libertarian.

[Jacobtm]

Doubt Paul would win a single state. Probably not too different from Perot, he'd get second place in a few.

[Stranger in a strange land]

A major third party candidacy? Yes please!!

I'm not sure Paul would win any states at 18%, as like Perot, he doesn't have any obvious regional base... But you never know.

He might win Vermont?

Not a chance of winning, but he might come in second. He'd be pretty much assured to come in second if it were Obama vs. Cain vs. Paul

With Paul:

Obama - 44%
Romney - 32%
Paul - 18%
With Paul:

Obama (D) - 44%
Romney (R)- 32%
Paul  (T)- 18%

Crazy ass map...

Paul wouldn't win WV. Too many people depend on handouts there, plus Romney is pro-coal enough. Plus it seems like the Dems have a floor of about 40%, so Obama might actually be in a position to win if Paul and Romney split the right wing vote.

Add Indiana to Paul's tally please.

There's no good reason to think he would win there.

IMHO, Paul's best states would be, in order:
1) Alaska
2) Montana
3) Idaho
4) Wyoming
5) Nevada
6) New Hampshire
7) North Dakota
South Dakota
9) Maine
10) Utah

He would only have a chance at winning the first four. Paul does best in Western Mountain states, but those have relatively few electoral votes.

[bgwah]

A major third party candidacy? Yes please!!

I'm not sure Paul would win any states at 18%, as like Perot, he doesn't have any obvious regional base... But you never know.

What do you think would be the most likely state to fall to him if he managed to take one?

I don't really know... I could see him doing well in Montana, but like 1992 it would probably just mean a >30% D win.

Maine loves independent candidates, but again I would still say >40% D win.

Alaska is a possibility, I suppose.

[frihetsivrare]

With these numbers, I would expect Barack Obama to heavily win urban America and slightly win suburban America with Romney in 2nd.  Mitt Romney would win small towns which are not completely rural.  Ron Paul would win rural areas plus some small cities in the mountain west and great plains.

Obama  404
Romney   99
Paul        35

Paul finishes second in Oregon, Maine, Vermont, Minnesota, Hawaii and Arizona.  Close third in Washington, Georgia, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

I took the liberty of adding the rest of the 100% to arrive at 46-33-21.

[Jacobtm]

Paul wins zero EVs due to his complete lack of charisma, lack of ability to hold eye contact, lack of ability to speak clearly and persuasively, and general squirrely demeanor. Also no one wants $1 trillion cuts a year.

Obama wins pretty much everywhere that he scored over 40% in '08.

Paul draws excessively from dissatisfied conservatives, dooming Romney despite Paul himself not even doing terribly well nationally.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

With these numbers, I would expect Barack Obama to heavily win urban America and slightly win suburban America with Romney in 2nd.  Mitt Romney would win small towns which are not completely rural.  Ron Paul would win rural areas plus some small cities in the mountain west and great plains.

Obama  404
Romney   99
Paul        35

Paul finishes second in Oregon, Maine, Vermont, Minnesota, Hawaii and Arizona.  Close third in Washington, Georgia, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

I took the liberty of adding the rest of the 100% to arrive at 46-33-21.

So Ron Paul beats Mitt Romney in.... Utah?

[Roemerista]

I doubt all the 18% who said Paul, would vote Paul. I suspect its a protest vote in this poll that has pushed him so high.

[Jacobtm]

I doubt all the 18% who said Paul, would vote Paul. I suspect its a protest vote in this poll that has pushed him so high.

He does have alot of support he could draw from people who wouldn't normally vote.

Plus this is the ideal 3rd party election, a recession, an unpopular incumbent vs. a candidate who doesn't inspire his own base. Lots of disaffected voters out there to go for.

If Perot can get 19%, I see no reason Paul can't do about as well. Besides money...

There are lots of Americans who'd love someone who isn't a regular politician

[Badger]

I doubt all the 18% who said Paul, would vote Paul. I suspect its a protest vote in this poll that has pushed him so high.

Correct answer. Once the GOP consolidates around its nominee (presumably Romney) that 18% would drop. As the campaign nears its end the number would drop further, just like any third party candidate, as the appeal of a protest vote fades in favor of worries the greatest evil among the three candidates (for most Paul voters, Obama) will win.

After an initial candidacy announcement bounce, Paul'd have trouble maintaining the 15% threshold for debate invitations. He wouldn't win any states, and MIGHT finish second in one or two (or ME-2).