I didn't want to just post this in a random thread because it would easily be forgotten(and I'd be lying if I didn't want some credit when this happens), but I am seeing a very major polling event that is going to occur in the near future.
In an upcoming poll Newt will out poll Romney in the Obama vs. category. Up until this point no "flavor of the month" has out polled Romney in competitiveness against Obama that is about to change.
It is my contention that Romney and Newt's polling in the Obama vs. category will converge and be quite similar in the not so distant future. And when they do converge together there will be more than 1 poll that has Newt as the one that is a better potential competitor against Obama than Romney is.
Those polls will have a big impact on the primaries because all of the people that were looking at Romney purely because he was the most "electable" are going to actually have to think about it.
You have made a number of astute observations.
I would suggest that among other things, you examine the 'sample size' of the polls, as we the internals.
Romney generally performs better than other potential Republican nominees is surveys with small samples and unusually small Republican voters compositions.
Romney needs a clear gap between him and other potential Republican nominees to have any chance of selling the 'electability' argument to get the nomination.
