Prediction On Upcoming Polling Event--Newt

[Wonkish1]

I didn't want to just post this in a random thread because it would easily be forgotten(and I'd be lying if I didn't want some credit when this happens), but I am seeing a very major polling event that is going to occur in the near future.

In an upcoming poll Newt will out poll Romney in the Obama vs. category. Up until this point no "flavor of the month" has out polled Romney in competitiveness against Obama that is about to change.

It is my contention that Romney and Newt's polling in the Obama vs. category will converge and be quite similar in the not so distant future. And when they do converge together there will be more than 1 poll that has Newt as the one that is a better potential competitor against Obama than Romney is.


Those polls will have a big impact on the primaries because all of the people that were looking at Romney purely because he was the most "electable" are going to actually have to think about it.

[Wonkish1]

Maybe after Gingrich wins Iowa.

Before that, I just don't think it's possible for Gingrich to get better polling results than Romney.

Gingrich is much more hated among Independents than Romney is. A win in Iowa could change that.

The notion that Gingrich is currently "hated" by independents I think is way, way overblown.

If you look at Gingrich's insane favorability moves in the last several months(moves I have never seen among any candidate for president ever and not even close) to expect that will just go from full on growth to immediate flat plateau is I think a little naive.

The other thing is that Gingrich possesses a lot of intangibles that are capable of causing some independents that Romney can't even get yet to go for Newt.


I don't expect this call to be believed by many people right now, but I do also believe in making some reasonably bold calls on occasion(especially since I've had a decent amount of them come true up to today). And I'm quite confident in making this one.

[Wonkish1]

Take a look at the general favorables of Newt right now! Newt had a general population unfavorability of 51% just a month ago. Now its 39%. He has a net negative of 3% vs. Romney's net positive of 4%. A 7% net difference is pretty small when you are moving this fast through the polls(I have never seen anything like this before). I mean 3.5% switch from unfavorable to favorable and he's tied with Romney.

^^That is general population movement. Among GOP voters Newt has moved an absolutely impressive and I think forever record breaking 58 net favorability pts since June according to PPP. Hillary Clinton took twice the time to cover a third of that in 2007-08 and now she is the most popular politician in the country.


Links:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/11/14/rel18b.pdf

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_1114925.pdf


Net favorability among the general population with Newt was my biggest reason why I didn't think Newt would make it many months ago. But this kind of movement is absolutely unheard of before. And there no signs of this freight train slowing down!

And if this ^^^ prediction comes true I have to admit I deserve a little bit of gloating rights because A-Bob has been a Newt supporter since the beginning and even he thinks I'm reaching here.

[Wonkish1]

PPP: "National general election numbers out tomorrow- Newt gaining on Obama too, suggesting increased appeal not just to GOP"

I don't think PPP will produce the crossover on Romney, that this thread is talking, about in its release tomorrow. But its coming!


But I'm getting ready to do a dance and gloat a little in the not so distant future.

[Wonkish1]

PPP: "National general election numbers out tomorrow- Newt gaining on Obama too, suggesting increased appeal not just to GOP"

I don't think PPP will produce the crossover on Romney, that this thread is talking, about in its release tomorrow. But its coming!


But I'm getting ready to do a dance and gloat a little in the not so distant future.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You may accept your accolades. 

Thank you, but to be fair I haven't quite officially earned them yet. Newt still has to produce at least one poll where he beats Romney in the Obama vs. category. In this poll he's only 3 points behind.

But this is increasingly looking like a very good call on my part when most were thinking that there was no way Newt could possibly bridge the electability gap between him and Romney.

[Wonkish1]

But Wonkish, does Gingrich have the discipline to remain competitive? While his personal failings are well known, the man also has the tendency to say things that anger a lot of people. Gingrich's favorable and competitiveness numbrs may be looking hot right now, but he's one more "right wing social engineering" away from seeing those numbers completely reverse.

I think you nailed Gingrich's biggest problem and the one I've just heaped criticism on him for over the years. Since he isn't scripted he tends to make decent sized mistakes every once in a great while.

So ultimately while I'm a Newt fan the only way I'm going to vote for him come primary time is if between now and then he doesn't make a single big mistake and I conclude he's improved considerably on that front.

[Wonkish1]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/11/15/130402/poll-gingrich-scores-best-vs-obama.html

Booyeah! Damn that was faster that I thought!!!! I'll take my victory lap and collect my accolades.


_{Granted it's McClatchy-Marist which isn't the strongest polling outfit on the RCP list.}

[Wonkish1]

I do not see this happening outside of maybe some Rasmussen polls and a few other assorted outliers.

I still stand by this for now. Marist is an awful uni pollster but enjoy the fun while it lasts!

By the way in polling, Rasmussen is one of the more accurate ones when you figure in Marist, Quinni, Ipsos, and most of the really crappy newspaper and network polls.

My approximate order goes something like
1. Mason Dixon**
2. Battleground
3. Gallup
4. PPP
5. Rasmussen
6. Opinion Research

Then all of the remaining news outfits, SUSA, Ipsos, etc.

3rd worst of RCP: Quinni
2nd worst of RCP: Marist(hence why I wrote the subtext)
worst of RCP: Democracy Corps

Then the crap that doesn't make the list like:
Insider Advantage
Small town newspapers and uni's
Go next in the crap list

Then lastly you have the online interactives like Zogby I are the absolute worst.

So I would much rather had Rasmussen over Marist I'll definitely grant you that. But this wont be the only one.

[Wonkish1]

Rasmussen is a decent pollster but he has an agenda. I am more trusting of him in the closing days of an election cycle when he has to be right.

I don't think that is actually shown in reality though. If you look at his polls they are always a lot closer to the RCP average of similar dated polls than most of the polls that make it on the RCP list.

Many republicans could accuse PPP of having an agenda, but realistically speaking they are always pretty close to the RCP average as well(although I do think if they had a weakness it would be primaries, they are much stronger in the general than in primary elections).

Take a look at the current polls on RCP you'll see the ones that I listed in my top 6 as being much less volatile against the RCP average than the rest of the RCP list and that isn't a coincidence either that is practically always the case.