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Author Topic: Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On  (Read 1079 times)
Silent Hunter
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« Reply #25 on: October 28, 2017, 05:05:52 pm »
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I can understand uniform restrictions, but dyeing hair within a natural range? It's not like it's green or anything.
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« Reply #26 on: October 28, 2017, 06:12:40 pm »
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I can understand uniform restrictions, but dyeing hair within a natural range? It's not like it's green or anything.

I have no idea what the laws in Japan would say about this.  It would seem to me if the school is a private school then they should be able to have whatever rules they want.  The child can always choose not to attend and attend another school (public or private) instead.
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« Reply #27 on: October 29, 2017, 07:06:06 am »
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Latest NTV poll (change on Sept)

Abe approval/disapproval 41.7(-0.4)/44.2(+3.2)

Party support
LDP    36.5 (-1.4)
KP     4.7 (+0.8)
JRP   3.1 (+1.8)
HP     4.2 (new)
DP    0.7 (-7.8)
CDP 13.8 (new)
JCP    4.5 (+1.3)

No post-election victory bounce for Abe/LDP
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« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2017, 07:10:11 am »
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Was a bounce expected though?
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2017, 07:12:45 am »
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Was a bounce expected though?

Usually after an election victory the cabinet and ruling party (which is LDP most of the time anyway) gets a bounce in support.  In some polls this is the case and in other not.  I think there was a bounce that is already wearing off after a week.  We are back to a mode where Abe popular support is not high even as the opposition in is a total mess and cannot take advantage of it.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2017, 08:35:47 am »
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Abe approval curve.  Still above water for now



Party support.  Purple is LDP.  CDP is Deep Blue.  Grey is no party.
CDP support at the highest level of any non-LDP party since 2012.
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« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2017, 07:28:11 am »
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DP leader Maehara resigned to take  responsibility for the disarray following a failed merger with HP.  He will join HP. 

Ex-DP leader 岡田 克也(Okada Katsuya) who resigned in 2016 after DP's defeat in the 2016 Upper House elections will form a group of ex-DP independent MP.
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2017, 09:08:31 am »
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It seems there are pressure for on Osaka governor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) to resign as JRP leader given the JRP poor performance, especially in the Osaka district seats.

How much control does Toru Hashimoto have of JRP?
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« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2017, 09:51:06 am »
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It seems there are pressure for on Osaka governor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) to resign as JRP leader given the JRP poor performance, especially in the Osaka district seats.

How much control does Toru Hashimoto have of JRP?

Hard to say.  I think last year I would say a lot.  But this year it seems Hashimoto has mostly disappeared and most likely have given up on the JRP project as a way to capture national power. It would not surprise me for him to re-appear to join the national LDP since his relationship with Abe has always been positive. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2017, 06:33:48 pm »
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One of the reasons for the lack of defections to CDP from HP is that CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio), just like Koike before the election, seems to be prioritizing ideological purity over party growth. If seems Edano and Koike is learning the wrong lessons on why DPJ/DP failed.  They seems to think that DPJ/DP could not get their support up is due the ideological diversity of the party.  It seems to me that the ideological diversity in the LDP is just as great if not greater than DPJ/DP.  The real reason why DPJ/DP could not take off post-2012 is because DPJ was seen as incompetent after its 2009-2012 experience.   

I do agree  that the opposition cannot M&A its way back to victory and that it will take a few election cycles to beat LDP.  It seems to me the way to do it is not ideological purity but success at the prefecture government level.   I think CDP and HP should form an alliance and together work to do well in the 2019 prefecture level elections.  The resulting CDP-HP clout at the local level can demonstrate that they are parties that can rule and not just win elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2017, 06:34:55 pm »
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One of the 3 JRP winners in district seats in Osaka resigned from the party.  JRP at the national level might be falling apart even as it did slightly better than feared at the PR section.
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« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2017, 06:51:49 pm »
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to be fair, I would be highly sceptical of letting people like Ozawa on board. He played an outright malicious role in the DJP era, and the few benefits of having him around have diminished as he has become ever less significant.
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Personally, I think he should only get one testicle removed (moderate hero)
Such a solution would certainly be completely unacceptable for me. However, for the sake of moderate herosim, I might very well be willing to keep my scrotum. Smiley Indeed, does that sound fair? Smiley
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« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2017, 09:46:31 pm »
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One of the reasons for the lack of defections to CDP from HP is that CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio), just like Koike before the election, seems to be prioritizing ideological purity over party growth. If seems Edano and Koike is learning the wrong lessons on why DPJ/DP failed.  They seems to think that DPJ/DP could not get their support up is due the ideological diversity of the party.  It seems to me that the ideological diversity in the LDP is just as great if not greater than DPJ/DP.  The real reason why DPJ/DP could not take off post-2012 is because DPJ was seen as incompetent after its 2009-2012 experience.  

I do agree  that the opposition cannot M&A its way back to victory and that it will take a few election cycles to beat LDP.  It seems to me the way to do it is not ideological purity but success at the prefecture government level.   I think CDP and HP should form an alliance and together work to do well in the 2019 prefecture level elections.  The resulting CDP-HP clout at the local level can demonstrate that they are parties that can rule and not just win elections.

I think this fundamentally misunderstands what the appeal of the opposition is and why people vote for opposition candidates. The opposition parties have to stand for something to get people to vote for them. They can stand for *different* things (i.e., the opposition parties don't have to present a cross-party ideologically unified front), although tactically this becomes harder to the extent they have electoral alliances in an FPTP system. But they have to stand for something. They can't just be an inferior version of the LDP, which is what an ideologically diverse, cobbled together opposition party is. The inferior version of the LDP might be able to win on the rare occasions when the LDP totally discredits itself (see 2009), but they can't hold on to power because they don't give anyone a reason to continue to support them once the unpopularity of the LDP has had time to wear off.

The important thing is that the opposition parties can never beat the LDP at its own game. The opposition parties will never be able to be all things to all people and will never be able to be the establishment or default choice (at least, not until they've won a second government term in a row). It is therefore irrelevant that the LDP has a great deal of internal ideological diversity (though less internal diversity, I think, than you are crediting it for, at least nowadays).

In fact, internal ideological diversity is a significant weakness for both the LDP and the opposition alike since it lends itself to disarray and ineffective governance. However, there is a distinct double-standard where the opposition parties are held to much higher standards of competence than the LDP, primarily because voters vote for the opposition for essentially optimistic reasons (thinking the country can be better than it is) but vote for the LDP for essentially pessimistic reasons (thinking what they know is the safest choice), so opposition voters have higher expectations of their politicians. The LDP therefore overcomes the disadvantage of ideological diversity causing disarray by being the low-expectations party, while the disarray that results from ideological diversity serves only to discredit the opposition parties.
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2017, 06:39:58 am »
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I think this fundamentally misunderstands what the appeal of the opposition is and why people vote for opposition candidates. The opposition parties have to stand for something to get people to vote for them. They can stand for *different* things (i.e., the opposition parties don't have to present a cross-party ideologically unified front), although tactically this becomes harder to the extent they have electoral alliances in an FPTP system. But they have to stand for something. They can't just be an inferior version of the LDP, which is what an ideologically diverse, cobbled together opposition party is. The inferior version of the LDP might be able to win on the rare occasions when the LDP totally discredits itself (see 2009), but they can't hold on to power because they don't give anyone a reason to continue to support them once the unpopularity of the LDP has had time to wear off.

The important thing is that the opposition parties can never beat the LDP at its own game. The opposition parties will never be able to be all things to all people and will never be able to be the establishment or default choice (at least, not until they've won a second government term in a row). It is therefore irrelevant that the LDP has a great deal of internal ideological diversity (though less internal diversity, I think, than you are crediting it for, at least nowadays).

In fact, internal ideological diversity is a significant weakness for both the LDP and the opposition alike since it lends itself to disarray and ineffective governance. However, there is a distinct double-standard where the opposition parties are held to much higher standards of competence than the LDP, primarily because voters vote for the opposition for essentially optimistic reasons (thinking the country can be better than it is) but vote for the LDP for essentially pessimistic reasons (thinking what they know is the safest choice), so opposition voters have higher expectations of their politicians. The LDP therefore overcomes the disadvantage of ideological diversity causing disarray by being the low-expectations party, while the disarray that results from ideological diversity serves only to discredit the opposition parties.

Its is hard to argue against your position.  In this particular case the nature of the election system puts a premium on candidates quality.  If this election was fought on ideological grounds you can argue LDP-KP actually lost the election.  If we had the German election system with a 176 member D'Hondt PR district with a 5% threshold then LDP-KP would have been reduced to 82 out of 176 seats and Abe would be scrambling around to form a Grand coalition of LDP-HP or its Jamaica coalition of LDP-KP-JRP to form a government.  But the nature of the FPTP district seats and the voting pattern of electorate shows that candidate quality is key.

To have good quality candidates one needs a farm league of prefecture and city level politicians where issues that CDP seems to be running such as  Constitution and national security matters little.  For CDP to put ideological litmus tests  on these issues seems as foolish as Koike's reverse litmus test and will prevent the growth of CDP at the local level.  If they persist on this then they will just become a more moderate version of JCP  which would have dedicated core of supporters but little prospect of coming to power.
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2017, 02:01:08 pm »
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I think this fundamentally misunderstands what the appeal of the opposition is and why people vote for opposition candidates. The opposition parties have to stand for something to get people to vote for them. They can stand for *different* things (i.e., the opposition parties don't have to present a cross-party ideologically unified front), although tactically this becomes harder to the extent they have electoral alliances in an FPTP system. But they have to stand for something. They can't just be an inferior version of the LDP, which is what an ideologically diverse, cobbled together opposition party is. The inferior version of the LDP might be able to win on the rare occasions when the LDP totally discredits itself (see 2009), but they can't hold on to power because they don't give anyone a reason to continue to support them once the unpopularity of the LDP has had time to wear off.

The important thing is that the opposition parties can never beat the LDP at its own game. The opposition parties will never be able to be all things to all people and will never be able to be the establishment or default choice (at least, not until they've won a second government term in a row). It is therefore irrelevant that the LDP has a great deal of internal ideological diversity (though less internal diversity, I think, than you are crediting it for, at least nowadays).

In fact, internal ideological diversity is a significant weakness for both the LDP and the opposition alike since it lends itself to disarray and ineffective governance. However, there is a distinct double-standard where the opposition parties are held to much higher standards of competence than the LDP, primarily because voters vote for the opposition for essentially optimistic reasons (thinking the country can be better than it is) but vote for the LDP for essentially pessimistic reasons (thinking what they know is the safest choice), so opposition voters have higher expectations of their politicians. The LDP therefore overcomes the disadvantage of ideological diversity causing disarray by being the low-expectations party, while the disarray that results from ideological diversity serves only to discredit the opposition parties.

Its is hard to argue against your position.  In this particular case the nature of the election system puts a premium on candidates quality.  If this election was fought on ideological grounds you can argue LDP-KP actually lost the election.  If we had the German election system with a 176 member D'Hondt PR district with a 5% threshold then LDP-KP would have been reduced to 82 out of 176 seats and Abe would be scrambling around to form a Grand coalition of LDP-HP or its Jamaica coalition of LDP-KP-JRP to form a government.  But the nature of the FPTP district seats and the voting pattern of electorate shows that candidate quality is key.

To have good quality candidates one needs a farm league of prefecture and city level politicians where issues that CDP seems to be running such as  Constitution and national security matters little.  For CDP to put ideological litmus tests  on these issues seems as foolish as Koike's reverse litmus test and will prevent the growth of CDP at the local level.  If they persist on this then they will just become a more moderate version of JCP  which would have dedicated core of supporters but little prospect of coming to power.

It's important to have good candidates who are also cohesive with the party message. CDP can't afford to have even local government candidates who bang on about how Japan should have the ability to wage war. Sure, those issues aren't especially important at the local government level, but they embarrass the party and harm the party's image on a national stage. It's not like there is a dearth of potential skilled politicians who are dovish.

Clearly, voters are responding to the CDP, or else it wouldn't be polling higher than any opposition party since 2009. Right after an election is a bad time to peak, of course, but the CDP has to hope that they can continue to carry forward the image of being something different - a party that actually stands for something - through the next election. Or else what's the point?
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jaichind
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« Reply #40 on: November 13, 2017, 08:20:13 am »
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A slew of polls has Abe's post election bounce getting his approval ratings to around the high 40s

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« Reply #41 on: November 14, 2017, 06:58:24 am »
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Koike resigns as head of HP.  玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) who was elected as joint HP leader awhile ago will now be the sole leader of HP.  The entire HP caucus with the exception of few MPs are all former DP members with an ex-DP leader as it s head.

So the original DP has now split into 3.  Left DP (DCP), Right DP (HP), and Upper House DP (DP).  Plus a bloc of ex-DP independents.  Most of the ex-DP independents will join a party (most likely one of HP CDP or DP) by December since the party fund allocation will be based on the number of MPs so each one of these parties will have an incentive to get these ex-DP independents to join.   

Over time most likely we will see these 3 parties either merge or form an alliance.  With Koike moving into the background I suspect the HP-JRP-TCJ alliance will dissolve.
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jaichind
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« Reply #42 on: November 14, 2017, 07:03:39 am »
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If HP stays on as Conservative Center-Right opposition that would cut of any revival attempts of JRP.  The JRP has been losing vote share since 2012 and it seems that will continue.

PR vote of JRP

2012   20.4%
2013   11.9%
2014   15.7%  (after merging with most of YP in the form of YP splinter UP)
2016    9.2%  (after most ex-DP and ex-UP members left to merge with DPJ to form DP)
2017    6.1%

As long as HP in some form is around for 2019 Upper House elections JRP would most likely fall to 2%-3% with LDP gaining most of the vote lost by JRP and others going to HP.  I suspect JRP will devolve into an Osaka regional party which is strong at the regional level but will become weaker for national elections even in Osaka.
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« Reply #43 on: November 14, 2017, 07:40:22 am »
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Koike resigns as head of HP. 

Can't help but find hilarious how things turned for Koike given the level of hype some months (even weeks) ago.
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jaichind
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« Reply #44 on: November 14, 2017, 07:54:47 am »
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Koike resigns as head of HP. 

Can't help but find hilarious how things turned for Koike given the level of hype some months (even weeks) ago.

What is funny is I saw this coming.  I wrote back in July how she can make it to the top. The first point I made was "She has to avoid the Hashimoto trap of trying to go into national politics too early."  She went on to make that mistake.  It seems her governorship of Tokyo is now most likely ruined as well.

What's a realistic path for Koike to become Prime Minister?

It is not easy.  She has to avoid the Hashimoto trap of trying to go into national politics too early.  I would imagine the path is

1) She stays focused on Tokyo politics and gets a bunch of policy wins including a successful 2020 Olympics
2) 2018 national elections has LDP-KP losing their 2/3 majority and LDP barely above majority given the relative weakness of DP and JRP.  Abe steps down but is able to install a pro-Abe successor.
3) LDP decline at the national level continues but DP continues to be rudderless so it is not able to take advantage of the LDP's decline.  LDP-KP barely wins 2019 Upper House elections over a weak DP and JRP.  
4) Koike wins re-election in 2020
5) TPFA-KP cruse to easly re-election victory in 2021 in Tokyo Prefecture elections
6) Koike takes TPFA national and forms a Koike Party at the national level in 2021.
7) Koike Party forms an alliance with DP and KP at the national level under Koike's leadership.  Anti-Abe LDP factions defect to Koike Party.  Rump LDP which is pro-Abe forms an alliance with the pro-Abe JRP.
8  ) Koike Party-KP-DP defeats LDP-JRP in 2022 national elections with Koike as PM.
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