Civil War in Syria

[Tender Branson]

Syrians forces shot down a Russian jet while Israel was dropping bombs on Iranians and we didn't talk about it?

Syria and the Russians should just down every aircraft the Israelis send into Syrian airspace.

Israel has no fu**ing business in Syria and stay the fu** out of there.

The only legitimate way for them to attack is if something is going on really close to their border, otherwise they should stop meddling there.

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.  

That would be preferable, yes.

[Cory]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

[Frodo]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

Explain.  We all know Russia has been effectively serving as Bashar al-Assad's air force. 

[Lord Halifax]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

Explain.  We all know Russia has been effectively serving as Bashar al-Assad's air force. 

Exactly, they are there with government permission.

[Cory]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

Explain.  We all know Russia has been effectively serving as Bashar al-Assad's air force. 

Exactly, they are there with government permission.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

Explain.  We all know Russia has been effectively serving as Bashar al-Assad's air force. 

Exactly, they are there with government permission.

I'm glad you two think Russia should never have invaded Georgia or Ukraine.

[Tender Branson]

Russia sends angry message at Israel by offering Syrians upgraded anti-aircraft weaponry

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-israel-syria-anti-aircraft-military-plane-crash-friendly-fire-s300-system-putin-netanyahu-a8552616.html

[ingemann]

Syrians forces shot down a Russian jet while Israel was dropping bombs on Iranians and we didn't talk about it?

Syria and the Russians should just down every aircraft the Israelis send into Syrian airspace.

Israel has no fu**ing business in Syria and stay the fu** out of there.

The only legitimate way for them to attack is if something is going on really close to their border, otherwise they should stop meddling there.

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.  

Russia are there on invitation from the legal government of Syria, USA are far less justified to there, but they can at least justify their presence in eastern Syria on the fact that ISIS declared war on them.

Israel are there because Israel are run by drooling morons who buy their own Kool-Aid. Early Israel was run by very intelligent and political savy people, who had a good idea of what they could get away with and was great at propaganda, but after several victories over the world's most incompetent armies, modern Israel politicians have begun to buy their own propaganda, which make they take decisions, which badly thought out and disasterous for Israel.

The Syrian Regime was happy with a cold war with Israel, the Syrian-Israeli border was stable. The Syrians supported Hezbollah, but that had nothing to do with Israel, but because Syria sought control over Lebanon, Hezbollah also care little about Israel outside the fact that their hostile relationship with Israel gives them a excuse to not demobilise. Since the last disasterous conflict with Hezbollah, which only ended because Hezbollah was forced to end the conflict by the other Lebanese parties/militias (who Hezbollah fear far more than IDF), the Lebanese border have been silent too.

But as the Syrian Civil War broke out the Bibi the Mouth Breather saw a opportunity to redo the same mistake as Israel did in the Lebanese Civil War. Israel decided to push for the Syrian Civil War becoming never ending to secure their northern border. This build on a very badly thought out analysis. Because the result of the conflict in Lebanon was the birth of Hezbollah, which may be the best military force in the Middle East (IDF included), in Syria Hezbollah was invited in by the Regime, and have been used to remake Syrian minority militias in its own image. So Israel risk the birth of a new bigger Hezbollah-like group in Syria the longer the conflict last, a group which would be a far larger threat toward Israel than Hezbollah are.

[ingemann]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

Explain.  We all know Russia has been effectively serving as Bashar al-Assad's air force. 

Exactly, they are there with government permission.

I'm glad you two think Russia should never have invaded Georgia or Ukraine.

It shouldn't.

[dead0man]

The Syrians supported Hezbollah, but that had nothing to do with Israel, but because Syria sought control over Lebanon, Hezbollah also care little about Israel outside the fact that their hostile relationship with Israel gives them a excuse to not demobilise.

you said some other crazy sh**t, but this is by the far the craziest.  Hezbollah had nothing to do with Israel?  Are you kidding?  Then, in the same funking sentence, you say "their hostile relationsip with Israel"?  What the hell man?  Which is it?  Does Hezbollah have a hostile relationship with Israel or do they have nothing to do with it?  It can't be both.

Obviously the answer is hostile.  link

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[ingemann]

The Syrians supported Hezbollah, but that had nothing to do with Israel, but because Syria sought control over Lebanon, Hezbollah also care little about Israel outside the fact that their hostile relationship with Israel gives them a excuse to not demobilise.

you said some other crazy sh**t, but this is by the far the craziest.  Hezbollah had nothing to do with Israel?  Are you kidding?  Then, in the same funking sentence, you say "their hostile relationsip with Israel"?  What the hell man?  Which is it?  Does Hezbollah have a hostile relationship with Israel or do they have nothing to do with it?  It can't be both.

Obviously the answer is hostile.  link

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That's pretty much the problem with you entire perspective in the Middle East, it build on the fact that you're obsessed with Israel, and think the entire world orbit the things you obsess over, and you fail to see why the different actors acts as they do.

Hezbollah want to control Lebanon, they don't care about Israel, but they gain their legitimacy from the fact they defended Lebanon against the Israeli invasion and occupation. Which means that by having a antagonistic relationship with Israel, they can argue, they can't disarm, because that would open Lebanon up to Israeli dominance and invasions.

Hezbollah don't give a f**k about the Palestinians, who they despise, both as a hostile actor in Lebanon and because the Palestinians are mostly Sunni, who have speand the last millenium lording it over Shia (the sect Hezbollah represent).

This is pretty obvious for anyone, who spend a moment to read up on the issue, but I guess it easier to pretend to be a cynical realpolitik observer and not spend a moment getting the fact, that foreign actors have interest, which have nothing to do with you or your obsessions.

[dead0man]

That's pretty much the problem with you entire perspective in the Middle East, it build on the fact that you're obsessed with Israel, and think the entire world orbit the things you obsess over, and you fail to see why the different actors acts as they do.

k.  I admit I have biases.  I'm a big boy.

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indeed.  These are bad people, using terrorism both real and threatened, as an excuse to hold political control over people that don't want them there.

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it's pretty funking clear nobody gives a f&&k about Palestinians.  Especially their neighbors.  Why would they at this point?

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and they hate the competition...sadly, that's not a joke at all

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what part of this do you think I don't understand?

[Mopsus]

These are bad people, using terrorism both real and threatened, as an excuse to hold political control over people that don't want them there.

You just described every state actor that’s ever existed...

[dead0man]

These are bad people, using terrorism both real and threatened, as an excuse to hold political control over people that don't want them there.

You just described every state actor that’s ever existed...

Like the Democratic Party?  I'm confused as to your point I think.

[Tender Branson]

IS surprisingly made strong gains in a counter attack today outside their remaining Euphrates Valley pocket. They even reached the Iraqi border again.

This is probably taking much longer than the Kurds thought ...

[CatoMinor]

Apparently Syria stated their goals after Idlib are the lands East of the Euphrates. RIP the one decent faction in the civil war.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently Syria stated their goals after Idlib are the lands East of the Euphrates. RIP the one decent faction in the civil war.

Could be similar to what happened in Iraq months ago between the Iraqi Army and the Kurds there: The Iraqi Army advanced on the Kurdish positions in Kirkuk (which they occupied, but belonged under Iraqi gov. control) and gave them an ultimatum: step back or we'll attack. The Kurds eventually pulled back to their historical boundaries.

In Syria, this might also happen, but I guess only after the Syrian government waited long enough so that the Kurds eliminate the IS in their remaining pocket so they don't have to do the job there.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

Explain.  We all know Russia has been effectively serving as Bashar al-Assad's air force. 

Exactly, they are there with government permission.

I'm glad you two think Russia should never have invaded Georgia or Ukraine.

I mean, point taken, but Syria under the Assads has been an ally of the Russian Federation (and before that, the USSR) for decades. It's not like this is new or unexpected.

[Tender Branson]

IS has made big gains today in the Euphrates valley, killing dozens of Kurdish/US-backed forces:

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http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2018/10/28/ISIS-ousts-US-backed-forces-from-east-Syria-holdout-.html

[Cory]

IS has made big gains today in the Euphrates valley, killing dozens of Kurdish/US-backed forces.

Ugh.

[CatoMinor]

Well that is unfortunate.

[Tender Branson]

As the US is pulling out of Syria in the next 30-100 days, they will also abandon the (lime-green) Al-Tanf area in the South:



https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2018/12/21/us-troops-to-withdraw-from-syrian-base-near-iraq-jordan-that-has-riled-russia

This is a major victory for Assad/Russia, who attempted to win back the area for a long time.

[PSOL]

As the US is pulling out of Syria in the next 30-100 days, they will also abandon the (lime-green) Al-Tanf area in the South:



https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2018/12/21/us-troops-to-withdraw-from-syrian-base-near-iraq-jordan-that-has-riled-russia

This is a major victory for Assad/Russia, who attempted to win back the area for a long time.

I think the bigger effect is that the SDF is defenseless from a Turkish, or honestly pro-regime, invasion?

[Tender Branson]

As the US is pulling out of Syria in the next 30-100 days, they will also abandon the (lime-green) Al-Tanf area in the South:



https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2018/12/21/us-troops-to-withdraw-from-syrian-base-near-iraq-jordan-that-has-riled-russia

This is a major victory for Assad/Russia, who attempted to win back the area for a long time.

I think the bigger effect is that the SDF is defenseless from a Turkish, or honestly pro-regime, invasion?

Yeah, that's going to be a major problem of course ...

As we know Erdogan and Assad, their assurances to Trump not to attack the Kurds anytime soon might not be worth much in say a year, when the Kurds have probably defeated ISIS around Hajin and are battle-tired. Turkey and/or Assad could then make huge gains in the Kurdish areas with the US out.

[Tender Branson]

The Kurds have made huge gains against ISIS in their last small pocket south of Hajin in recent days.

Hajin is completely taken by the Kurds and only some 10-20 miles of territory are left to clean from the Islamo-Nazis.

Too bad the heroic Kurds will soon have to face the Assad army and the invasive, filthy Turks ...