Civil War in Syria

[Crumpets]

First claimed al-Qaeda activity in Raqqa Province in at least 6 years.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1344792188497096709

[It’s so Joever]

What a great way to start the new year.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What a great way to start the new year.

What new year? It's still 1442 AH. There's still several months before we reach 1443.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1368904258184245255

[Crumpets]

This has been a long time coming. Assad never forcibly retook a lot of the main population centers in the south, but instead had Russia negotiate on his behalf for their handover. The problem was, Assad was never going to abide by the terms of those agreements and insisted on a return to status quo pre-2011 governance with a strong Iranian and proxy presence in the region to boot.

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1420720106825453568

[omar04]

This has been a long time coming. Assad never forcibly retook a lot of the main population centers in the south, but instead had Russia negotiate on his behalf for their handover. The problem was, Assad was never going to abide by the terms of those agreements and insisted on a return to status quo pre-2011 governance with a strong Iranian and proxy presence in the region to boot.

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1420720106825453568

"Reconciled" forces had several large exclusive zones and kept most of the heavy weaponry they were supposed to give up like rocket launchers that they're using now. There weren't even many men manning the SAA and Air Force Intelligence checkpoints let alone Iranian presence. This recent offensive is aimed at securing more favorable conditions through a stronger negotiating position hence their wanting a ceasefire and talks while they were on the offensive.

[Biden his time]

BUMP

This still goes on even as Afghanistan hogs the spotlight

[PSOL]

The complete failure of the hijinks from the Levant to Afghanistan, only for foreign policy to reorient like it’s nothing from a lack of objectives, is basically today’s Banana Wars. With the craziness only ending to prepare for Great Power Competition is just the icing on the s••• cake.

Of course the horrors of war won’t stop the next ones. Francis Fukayama is already beating the drums of war with China, showing just how impossible the current elite can learn from their mistakes.

[CumbrianLefty]

The complete failure of the hijinks from the Levant to Afghanistan, only for foreign policy to reorient like it’s nothing from a lack of objectives, is basically today’s Banana Wars. With the craziness only ending to prepare for Great Power Competition is just the icing on the s••• cake.

Of course the horrors of war won’t stop the next ones. Francis Fukayama is already beating the drums of war with China, showing just how impossible the current elite can learn from their mistakes.

Some in the US establishment have been pushing for this ever since the fall of the USSR.

[PSOL]

Erdogan is apparently preparing to secure the Syrian border away from the YPG. If they do so, the implications other than causing the worst refugee crisis the war has seen since the fighting in 2018 would be the loss of most autonomy from Syria. With PKK getting railed in Iran, Turkey, and Iraq simultaneously—losing this key border point to get fighters and have a land connection on their activity would significantly end their ability to operate.

The PKK and friends have gone a long way from starting out as a university club to actually holding territory for good stretches of time in Syria with US backing. They got experience fighting conventionally and most importantly in urban areas. The loss of such important territory would end the organizations capacity to do the things they do and they are at risk of kowtowing back to Syria like in the 90s. They hedged their bets too strongly with the US and now that the US and Russia are preoccupied elsewhere, they are sitting ducks if Turkey goes through with it.

The Turkish army, after the purges and stabilization in the army of *most* of the pressing threats through rotating back in competent generals, will most likely be successful.