Civil War in Syria

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Syrian opposition groups finally reach a unity deal. 

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The longer this goes on, the better for the radical Islamists, Al Qaeda, etc.

One of the biggest risks after Assad falls is a genocide of the Alawites.

Are you making an argument for NATO intervention here?   

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Also, Beet, how significant would it be for the region if Bashar al-Assad's regime were to crumble?  And would it push Iran to be genuinely cooperative with the United States with regard to its nuclear weapons facilities, now that they would be deprived of their only ally in the region? 

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So how much longer does everyone think the Assad regime can stay in power?

The United States is moving towards officially recognizing the Syrian opposition as the legitimate government in the country.  

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Syrian army weakening as rebels make gains

By Joby Warrick and Babak Dehghanpisheh,
Updated: Tuesday, December 4, 8:19 PM

After nearly two years of fighting, Syria’s vaunted war machine is showing serious cracks as emboldened rebels snap up more bases and airfields and force army units to retrench behind defensive lines in major cities, Western officials and military analysts say.

Bolstered by a steady flow of arms from foreign backers, opposition forces have scored a series of tactical victories in the Damascus suburbs in recent days and are advancing steadily toward the city’s airport, adding to what some analysts view as a sense of momentum that has been building since late summer.

Powerful antitank and antiaircraft weapons have helped level what was once a lopsided contest, the officials say, so much so that army commanders have been unable or unwilling to challenge rebel assaults on large military bases on the capital’s outskirts.

“The regime isn’t intervening to defend its positions,” said Jeffrey White, a former Middle East military analyst with the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency. “And when it does try to counterattack, it often fails.”

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Obama: US now recognizes opposition as ‘legitimate representative’ of Syrian people

By Associated Press, Published: December 10 | Updated: Tuesday, December 11, 6:39 PM

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama declared Syria’s main opposition group the sole “legitimate representative” of its country’s people Tuesday, deeming the move “a big step” in the international diplomatic efforts to end Syrian President Bashar Assad’s embattled regime.

Obama said the newly formed Syrian Opposition Council “is now inclusive enough” to be granted the elevated status, which paves the way for the greater U.S. support for the organization.

“Obviously, with that recognition comes responsibilities,” Obama said in an interview Tuesday with ABC News. “To make sure that they organize themselves effectively, that they are representative of all the parties, that they commit themselves to a political transition that respects women’s rights and minority rights.”

Recognition of the council as the sole representative of Syria’s diverse population brings the U.S. in line with Britain, France and several of America’s Arab allies, which took the same step shortly after the body was created at a meeting of opposition representatives in Qatar last month.

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I hope this isn't another false dawn. 

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U.N. mulls sending peacekeepers to Syria

Published: Dec. 15, 2012 at 9:44 AM

DAMASCUS, Syria, Dec. 15 (UPI) -- The United Nations is considering sending between 4,000 and 10,000 peacekeeping troops to Syria, a diplomatic official said.

The official said ministers of countries whose service personnel make up the U.N. peacekeeping force met Friday to discuss options for Syria, RIA Novosti reported.

One problem, the diplomatic source said, is the number of peacekeepers in the U.N. force.

"The problem is that the U.N. has no extra resources. The U.N. has a contingent of about 115,000 peacekeepers in various countries, but in order to send [a peacekeeping mission] to Syria, [the United Nations] will have to withdraw them from somewhere," the official, who spoke anonymously, said.

Lakhdar Brahimi, U.N. and Arab League envoy to Syria, said in November a peacekeeping mission was needed in Syria, devastated by a civil conflict that began in March 2011 over protests against President Bashar Assad. The violence between government troops and opposition forces has killed at least 40,000 people, activist groups estimate.
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Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/12/15/UN-mulls-sending-peacekeepers-to-Syria/UPI-73981355582681/#ixzz2FACcQE5a

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Russia doesn't appear too eager to serve as host to an exiled Bashar al-Assad and his family:

Russia says it won't host Assad but others welcome

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV
Associated Press
Originally published Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 5:23 AM

MOSCOW —

Russia's foreign minister says Moscow would welcome any country's offer of a safe haven to Syrian President Bashar Assad, but underlined that Moscow itself has no intention of giving him shelter if he steps down.

Russia has used its veto right at the U.N. Security Council to protect its old ally from international sanctions, but it has increasingly sought to distance itself from Assad.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters late Friday that countries in the region he wouldn't name publicly had asked Russia to convey their offer of a safe passage to Assad. He said that Russia responded by telling them to go directly to Assad.

"If there is anyone willing to provide him guarantees, they are welcome!" Lavrov told reporters on board a plane returning from Brussels where he attended a Russia-EU summit. "We would be the first to cross ourselves and say: "Thank God, the carnage is over! If it indeed ends the carnage, which is far from certain."
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That's quite a contrast to our more hospitable treatment of former Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi after the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran.  

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So they're using chemical weapons already....     

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Assad is going to die fighting:

Syria’s Assad is defiant in rare speech

By Liz Sly, Updated: Sunday, January 6, 8:58 PM

BEIRUT — In a rare public appearance Sunday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dashed hopes that a negotiated settlement to the nation’s civil war would be feasible anytime soon, delivering a speech in which he offered no hint that he is prepared to surrender power, negotiate with his opponents or halt his crackdown on armed rebels.
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Appearing weary but defiant as he addressed cheering supporters at the Opera House in central Damascus, the president sketched a plan for what he called a period of “transition,” in which a new government would be formed, a national pact would be drafted and a referendum would be held.

Assad’s proposals were vague, however, and made no mention of a mechanism under which he would surrender any of his powers, let alone step aside, as the opposition and most international governments have called for. He put the onus of responsibility for the plan on Western powers, which he said must end their support for the opposition before the implementation of a cease-fire and the convening of a national conference to chart reforms.

In his first public speech since June, Assad also made clear that his priority is to crush by force the nearly two-year-long uprising against his rule, labeling his opponents “terrorists” and “criminals.”

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Israel is contemplating launching a pre-emptive strike on Syria's stashes of chemical weapons to prevent them from falling into the hands of al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups.

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Finally, a glimmer of hope:

U.S. and Russia Plan Conference Aimed at Ending Syrian War

By STEVEN LEE MYERS and RICK GLADSTONE
Published: May 7, 2013

MOSCOW — Russia and the United States announced on Tuesday that they would seek to convene an international conference within weeks aimed at ending the civil war in Syria, jointly intensifying their diplomatic pressure on the combatants to peacefully settle a conflict that has taken more than 70,000 lives and left millions displaced and desperate.

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The announcement appeared to signal a strong desire by both countries to halt what has been a dangerous escalation in the conflict, with evidence of chemical weapons use, a surge in the number of civilians fleeing combat, and a refugee crisis that is overwhelming Syria’s neighbors. Israeli aerial attacks this past weekend on suspected munitions sites in Syria heightened and further complicated the tensions in the region.

Mr. Kerry’s visit also came as the Obama administration is facing increasing calls to intervene in the conflict with lethal military aid to the insurgency or perhaps stronger action such as enforcement of a no-fly zone over Syria to protect rebel-held areas. The effort to seek a negotiated solution with the Russians suggested the administration at least wanted to first make a public push in the diplomacy direction.

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It seems we are going to provide 'direct military support' to the Syrian rebels:

U.S., citing use of chemical weapons by Syria, to provide direct military support to rebels

By Karen DeYoung and Anne Gearan, Updated: Thursday, June 13, 9:17 PM

The United States has concluded that the Syrian government used chemical weapons in its fight against opposition forces, and President Obama has authorized direct U.S. military support to the rebels, the White House said Thursday.

“The president has said that the use of chemical weapons would change his calculus, and it has,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser. Rhodes said U.S. intelligence had determined with “high certainty” that Syrian government forces have “used chemical weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year.”

Intelligence agencies estimate that 100 to 150 people have died as a result of chemical weapons use, he said.

Rhodes did not detail what he called the expanded military support, but it is expected initially to consist of light arms and ammunition. He said the shipments would be “responsive to the needs” expressed by the rebel command.

Obama has “not made any decision” to pursue a military option such as a no-fly zone and has ruled out the deployment of U.S. ground troops, Rhodes said.

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There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place. 

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical. 

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

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Well, we avoided intervening for about two years now, and your fears have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place.  

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical.  

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

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Well, we avoided intervening for about two years now, and your fears have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Would intervention two years have necessarily produced a better outcome?

Yes, for the following reasons:

1. Fewer civilians would be killed or displaced -the refugee crisis would be minimal in relation to what it is now.
2. With the relatively quick overthrow of the regime, Al Qaeda/al Nusra elements would still be inconsequential
3. We would have an outsized influence not only on whatever government is formed, but also over the Syrian people grateful for our assistance
4. Iran would be deprived of a crucial ally, leaving it weaker in the region, and thus more vulnerable to American pressure with regard to its nuclear ambitions.  Perhaps it might even effect regime change there.  
5. Hezbollah would be left high and dry, thus contributing to Israel's security on its northern frontier.
6. We would not be facing the prospect of Syria becoming another post-Cold War Yugoslavia.
7. Deprived of its client-state (and foothold in the region), Russia would lose whatever residual influence it has left in the Middle East.

All this is assuming the Libyan-style intervention in question had been designed to aid the rebels in overthrowing the Assad regime, as opposed to merely making a damned statement of our displeasure like President Obama is urging...    

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Obama concedes to Russia; will remove military trigger on Syria

By Julian Pecquet    - 09/13/13 06:03 PM ET

President Obama is prepared to bow to Russian demands that he give up a military trigger in the pending UN resolution on Syria, administration officials told reporters on Friday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the United States must take the threat of force off the table if Syria is to turn over its chemical weapons arsenal to the international community. Russia is expected to veto any resolution that would include an automatic military trigger if Syria's Bashar Assad fails to comply.
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Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/un-treaties/322235-obama-bows-to-russian-demands-to-remove-military-trigger-on-syria#ixzz2eoqsZFSr

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Political science says Syria’s civil war will probably last at least another decade

BY MAX FISHER
October 23 at 1:39 pm

The Obama administration appears to be deadlocked over what to do in Syria, forcing a policy of inaction, according to a widely circulating New York Times story. But U.S. officials will likely have years more time to debate what to do about Syria's civil war, which could continue into and perhaps through the next presidential administration. According to a review of the political science on the duration of civil wars, Syria's conflict will most likely last through 2020 and perhaps well beyond.

Syria's conflict began with April 2011 protests and subsequent crackdowns. It's not clear the precise moment when it became a civil war, but many media organizations began referring to it as such around early or mid 2012. At most, you might say the war has been waging now for two years. According to studies of intra-state conflicts since 1945, civil wars tend to last an average of about seven to 12 years. That would put the end of the war somewhere between 2018 and 2023.

Worse, those studies have identified several factors that tend to make civil wars last even longer than the average. A number of those factors appear to apply to Syria, suggesting that this war could be an unusually long one. Of course, those are just estimates based on averages; by definition, half of all civil wars are shorter than the median length, and Syria's could be one of them. But, based on the political science, Syria has the right conditions to last through President Obama's tenure and perhaps most or all of his successor's.

Here's what the research shows:
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Linky

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Syrians on Both Sides of the War Increasingly See Assad as Likely to Stay

By ANNE BARNARD
Published: November 8, 2013

BEIRUT, Lebanon — A growing number of Syrians on both sides of their country’s conflict, along with regional analysts and would-be mediators, are demanding new strategies to end the civil war, based on what they see as an inescapable new reality: President Bashar al-Assad is staying in office, at least for now.

They say the insistence from the United States-backed opposition that Mr. Assad must go before peace talks can begin is outdated, failing to reflect the situation on the ground. Rather, they say, a deal to end or ease the violence must involve Mr. Assad and requires more energetic outreach to members of his government and security forces, with concrete proposals and reassurances that could bring compromise.

They also contend that the American-backed exile opposition coalition that remains at the center of Washington’s policy has little relevance and no respect from combatants on either side. These critics of American policy say that the United States and its coalition ally are helping guarantee that diplomacy remains paralyzed as Syrians die.

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The West would have had to act far more decisively that it was ever likely to act for a desirable outcome in Syria to emerge.  The window of opportunity is gone.

It's been gone for years now. 

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Seems the writing is on the wall for the rebels:

On third anniversary of Syrian rebellion, Assad is steadily winning the war

By Liz Sly, Published: March 14

BEIRUT — Three years into the revolt against his rule, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in a stronger position than ever before to quell the rebellion against his rule by Syrians who rose up to challenge his hold on power, first with peaceful protests and later with arms.

Aided by the steadfast support of his allies and the deepening disarray of his foes, Assad is pressing ahead with plans to be reelected to a third seven-year term this summer while sustaining intense military pressure intended to crush his opponents.

The strategy is not new, but in recent months it has started to yield tangible progress in the form of slow but steady gains on several key fronts on the battlefield that call into question long-held perceptions of a stalemate.

Most notably, the government has pushed the rebels back or squeezed them into isolated pockets in large swathes of the territory surrounding Damascus, diminishing prospects that the opposition will soon be in a position to seriously threaten the capital or topple the regime.

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According to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, 75% of Syria's stockpile has been destroyed.

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Apparently Syria has more chemical weapons facilities we didn't know about:

Exclusive: Syria reveals more chemical weapons facilities to watchdog - sources

BY ANTHONY DEUTSCH
THE HAGUE Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:35am EDT

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Looks like the Hezbollah fighters in Syria are about to get a taste of their own medicine:

Syrian rebel leader vows guerrilla war in south against Hezbollah, govt

BY TOM PERRY
BEIRUT Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:58pm EST

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The ancient city of Palmyra (a UNESCO world heritage site) is under threat from advancing rebel militants.